AgPage International Consulting, LLC

The effects of late planting, cool-wet soils in May, and flooding in June can't be overcome by favorable weather in July and August.  USDA's yield and production estimates may well turn out to be on the optimistic side when we finally get the crop in the bin.

The request for a partial waiver in the RFS by Texas Gov. Perry is likely to be denied, largely due to a 25% reduction in corn prices caused by favorable weather in the Midwest.  This corn crop, however, will be extremely difficult to get an accurate estimate on prior to getting it out of the field, so future price movements  will probably bring the issue of the need for changes in ethanol...

Changes in the ethanol production subsidy and import tariff would be an excellent way to moderate the increases in the short-term price of corn, easing the pain for the US livestock industry.  But any change in these policies will have long term impacts on the biofuels sector.   These changes were already being discussed, so the move by the Brazilian cane industry may place them into the...

An over-emphasis on ethanol has combined with a poor production year and a major speculative push on commodity prices to push livestock net returns into the red.  Animal feed has long been US corn and soybeans primary source of demand, but high feed costs, with no way to push up the selling price of their products, has created a situation that will soon, if not corrected, turn into a significant...

Just like this time last year, traders in Chicago may believe that Brazilian farmers are poised to significantly expand soybean acreage, as they have moved prices above $15 per bushel.  However, just as they misjudged them last year, they may be doing it again, as fertilizer prices have doubled, and have brought potential net returns on Brazilian soy back down enough that a significant expansion...