All Recent GLG News Analyses by Leading Experts at Advanced Forecasting Corporation

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

The Forecast Mix Of Mr. Naimi, El Nino, An Oil Contango And The H1N1 Flu

September 23, 2009

Analysis of:The Old Man and the Sea of Oil | www.rigzone.com

For many a wrong reason, bulls in crude believe that the “Old Man” (Mr. Naimi) is right (in his saying there has been "a fundamental change" in the oil market) when he says that the global economy is recovering.  In addition, many oil bulls think the “Little Boy” (El Nino) will remain weak this winter despite most forecasts saying it won’t.  To top off the confusing mix of signals, let’s mix in the H1N1 flu. It’s strange, but the mix might be something that needs to go into a risk portfolio.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Natural Gas Decoupling From Crude; Take Chesapeake Energy Comments With A Grain Of Salt, Especially If Long-Range Winter '08 Forecasts Pan Out True

September 24, 2008

Analysis of:Natural Gas Futures Advance As Output Slow To Resume in Gulf | www.bloomberg.com

This article has three main issues: 1) Aubrey McClendon, the CEO of Chesapeake Energy Corp, the second-biggest U.S. independent natural gas producer, says that up to 400 drilling rigs might shut down by the end of 2008; 2) There are worries that natural gas winter supplies will be less than anticipated after hurricanes Ike and Gustav caused havoc in the Gulf.  Even though no winter forecast is given, it will be interesting to note what does happen with natural gas prices especially with a couple of early to mid-Fall and mid-winter Canadian blasts well below normal likely occur; 3) Will natural gas decouple from oil?

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Linking Human Activity With Arctic Sea Ice Shrinkage: How Much More Wool Do We Have To Pull Over Our Eyes?

September 17, 2008

Analysis of:Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks To 2nd-Lowest On Record | www.usatoday.com

Human beings boast about having kept sea ice records for just 30 years.  Then we have the audacity to say there is an “alarming trend” of arctic sea ice shrinkage.  The most frightening aspect is that this ‘theory’ that human activity is causing the majority of sea ice shrinkage is going to have a heck of a negative impact on business especially in the energy, insurance, environmental, and financial sectors over the next five years.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Khelil Predicts Oil At $170 By The End Of 2008? Usually I Might Agree, But Not This Time

July 1, 2008

Analysis of:OPEC Leader Khelil Says Dollar Will Drive Oil to $170 | www.bloomberg.com

Chakib Khelil, Algerian Oil Minister and OPEC President, predicts that oil will climb to $170 a barrel by 12/31/08 due to the likelihood that political pressure on Iran as well as other conflicts and turmoil will continue, and on further speculation that the US dollar will see further decline (weakening against the Euro in particular). Khelil, as well as most other OPEC oil ministers, believe that the increasing price of oil is not linked to supply, and that there is more than enough oil in the market to meet the international demand. I have followed Khelil’s public words for over 5 years now, and when he says / forecasts something regarding crude, particularly with regard to its future price, I have calculated that the man is 84% accurate.  So it may be a bit of a surprise that I have to disagree with his prediction of $170 by the end of 2008, especially when it almost seems almost a certainty to some that oil will continue rising.  My commentary explains the logic.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Don't Hold Your Breath Waiting For Mass-Market Hydrogen Car Buyers

June 24, 2008

Analysis of:The Last Car You Would Ever Buy--Literally: Why We Shouldn't Get Excited By The Latest Hydrogen Cars | www.technologyreview.com

If you build it, it’s almost certain the media will come, and they certainly did come in hoards recently to see Honda’s new FCX Clarity.  However, the proposed hydrogen fuel cell economy is a fantasy in the media hype consciousness. Why should oil companies (or government) spend tens of billions of dollars building a hydrogen fueling infrastructure, which at best will take away business from their gasoline sales, and at worst will be a complete business loss, assuming as now seems likely, that hydrogen cars never catch on? Sure, hydrogen can be made from carbon-free sources of power like wind energy or nuclear (but has not so far), but so can electricity for electric cars.  Hydrogen cars are just outright inefficient, very costly and have little to no supporting infrastructure in place compared with electric cars. In two years, GM and Toyota have promised to deliver plug-in hybrids. That will be a real step closer to a future free of petroleum.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Peak Oil: Not A Blessing In Disguise With Regard To Global Warming

June 23, 2008

Analysis of:Global Warming Meets Peak Oil | windnh3.blogspot.com

On the subject of Peak Oil and Global Warming, the article http://windnh3.blogspot.com/search?q=Global+Warming+Meets+Peak+Oil is an intelligent set of ideas on presenting a feasible solution to reversing the energy-climate crisis. 1.  We are at or have already passed the peak of cheap conventional oil production. 2.  There is little realistic prospect that the conventional oil supply can keep up with current projected demand since it is unlikely in the short-term (despite higher gas prices) that industrialized countries won’t take strong action to sharply reduce consumption, and perhaps more unlikely that China & India won't take strong action to sharply reduce consumption growth. 3.  More supply (of oil) is not the answer to our energy-climate crisis. 4.  Two primary solutions to Peak Oil:  fuel efficiency and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles run on zero-carbon electricity.  This is a sane energy policy thacan be a compromise between different groups with different interests.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Is The Weather Channel REALLY A Prized Asset?

April 30, 2008

Analysis of:NBC, CBS seen bidding for Weather Channel | www.msnbc.msn.com

Even if you're one of the less than 3% of people that does not get TWC (The Weather Channel) on one of the average household's multiple TV sets blaring away at any hour of the day or night, TWC is the favored channel at airport screens and even in bars.  And of course the TWC is in many other languages too.  So if you have never seen TWC, you literally have been holed-up in some cave.  TWC is almost as ubiquitous as McDonald’s!  Everybody is talking about TWC.  Everybody wants to own it, now that it is up for sale.  So, surely, TWC is a top dog prize, right?  I might shock you, but I would not be doing my job if I agreed with the majority of TWC fanatics.  

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Dow To Surprise, Gaining Ground In Hybrid Acquisitions And Innovative Mergers

December 17, 2007

Analysis of:Dow on the Hunt for Acquisitions | www.icis.com

Dow Chemical is on the prowl.  And it has the confidence of a Tyrannosaurus Rex.  While sources cite Dow's ability to swallow up to 50-60 acquisitions, JVs or divestments, the quantity aspect is really not Dow's main goal.  While quality is more important, this time around, it's a measure of three things:  1) adding strengths to its long-term weakness; 2) processing hybrid mixes; and 3) think Middle East.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

Algerian Minister's Words Provide 80% Confidence In OPEC Predictions

December 17, 2007

Analysis of:Crude-Oil Futures Decline On OPEC Comment | www.marketwatch.com

Listen to what Chakib Khelil says:  his words predict the actions at OPEC better than some weather forecasts (excluding AFC's prognostications of course)! Words from OPEC sources almost always stoke a reaction on the Markets worldwide.  For the past 5 years, I have "tracked" important comments from OPEC, and have found some very interesting results.  Most importantly, it is the Algerian Oil Minister, Chakib Khelil, that provides an eighty percent (80%) confidence in saying what OPEC will likely do -- that is, what he has said ahead of an OPEC meeting does occur 80% of the time.

Simon AtkinsCEO, Senior Industrial Disaster Threat ForecasterAdvanced Forecasting Corporation

OPEC Will Likely Increase Trading In Other Currencies Because The Dollar's Depreciation Does One Thing OPEC Does Not Want To Do: It Increases Oil Demand

November 21, 2007

Analysis of:Oil Futures Rise Above $98 On Weaker Dollar: Heating Oil Hits New High On Low Inventory And Cold Weather Expectations | www.marketwatch.com

This MarketWatch article is a better report because it does not beat around the bush.  The authors interviewed a professor who had some intelligent things to say.  First, when the dollar loses value, the demand for crude increases which naturally reduces oil supplies, which causes the price of oil to increase.  We have seen from multiple sources in the last few months that OPEC has really not increased supplies -- and it is mainly because they see no need to do so.  Call me sarcastic, but the true face of OPEC is a wolf in sheep's clothing:  its members say they don't forecast a recession in the USA, but they are expecting it to occur.  When oil prices increase and the dollar falls at the same time, economic growth in areas outside of the USA is impacted negatively.  Therefore, with dollar depreciation continuing, look for OPEC to invest less and less in additional capacity, thereby reducing supplies overall, causing prices most likely to escalate in stair-like fashion in 2008.

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