Real Estate News by GLG Council Members

David LereahPresidentReecon Advisors

A Convincing Case for a Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension

October 6, 2009

Analysis of:Extend the Homebuyer Tax Credit | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

With the expiration date rapidly approaching, supporters of the tax credit fear that the housing recovery may stumble in the absence of this housing subsidy. Opponents believe that extending the program would be costly, expressing concerns about excessive government spending and a run-away federal budget deficit. They also believe that a tax credit program does not solve the problems of the housing sector; it only postpones dealing with those problems.

John BurnsPresidentJOHN BURNS REAL ESTATE CONSULTING, INC.

Short Sales Are About to Increase

October 5, 2009

Analysis of:Short Sales: A Fraying Lifeline for Homeowners | www.businessweek.com

Treasury is announcing new terms that they hope will encourage more short-sales. These transactions have not been very effective in the past, and while this is probably not going to be a game changer, it’s wise to expect the incentives could spur some level of increase in short sales.

Howard LiggettPresident and CEODistressed Real Estate Consulting Services, Inc.

Tax Lien Certificates Offer Stability During Unstable Times

October 1, 2009

Analysis of:Tax Bills Put Pressure on Struggling Homeowners | www.nytimes.com

Present estimates of  unpaid property taxes in the United States place the figure as high as $15 billion annually.  The choices available to government officials for remedying this shortfall are limited.  Counties and cities could increase the tax rate,borrow (maybe) the necessary capital,reduce services (again) or sell the tax debt to investors willing to take the risk they will be repaid.  The first three options are distasteful to most property owners,particularly those who pay on time.

Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research

Multifamily Becomes Multiple Choice in the North Hollywood, LA Submarket

October 1, 2009

Analysis of:Apartment Know-How in NoHo? | online.wsj.com

The Wall Street Journal report, by Maura Webber Sadovi, published on September 30, 2009 highlights what has become an increasingly common occurrence, the decline in property values over the past several years. The example used, a 438 unit deal in North Hollywood was almost sold for more than $140 million. Most recently, the same deal was sold for $96 million, a precipitous decline in value to say the least, and the carnage probably isn't over.

Joseph ChathamPresidentChatham Mortgage Partners Inc.

Lower Rates, While Great, Do Little For Jumbo Lending

October 1, 2009

Analysis of:Real Estate Outlook: Mortgage Rate Dip Impacts Housing | realtytimes.com

The Realty Times article reflects the positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage originations and home purchases, but fails to note the failure of said rates to transcend the conforming/conventional markets into the jumbo markets. The implications of this failure are that many homeowners in the higher cost states (CA, NY, MA, etc.) still cannot get competitive financing; thus, driving home prices down further.

Resort Real Estate & Recovery Speed: What Comes Back Quickest?

September 30, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Resort Real Estate: Preparing for the Recovery | www.hvs.com

In the current crisis it seems that just about all resort real estate segments—hotels; condo hotels; fractional and wholly-owned residential—have fallen equally far and equally fast. In fact, not all resort real estate segments fell as fast or far, nor, accordingly, will they recover at equal speed or volume. What segments are likely to recover first…at what price points…and in what locations?

David LereahPresidentReecon Advisors

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Positive Development for Housing

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Home Price Report Offers Encouraging News | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

Home values, as measured by the popular S&P Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities rose 1.6 percent in July from a month earlier. Home prices also rose in June and May on a month over month basis. The three-month steady improvement in home values indicates that the housing markets may be stabilizing.

David LereahPresidentReecon Advisors

Mortgage Applications Drop Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | www.mortgagebankers.org

The weekly mortgage application survey released by the MBA reported that both purchase and refinance application were down which was disappointing news for the housing markets given that mortgage rates fell during the week.

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates

A Blight On the Taubman REIT's Glamorous Image

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Taubman May Turn Over Atlantic City Mall To Lender | blog.retailtrafficmag.com

Taubman Co. is generally considered to be among the "best and brightest" of Mall REITS. If they are acknowledging serious problems with some of their properties, what must this portend for other REITs that have been assembled with far less dominant locations and/or retailers?

Kenneth EganBroker and RealtorRe/Max All Cities Realty

Reality always trumps hyperbole

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Stocks waver on housing, consumer confidence data | www.wtop.com

Housing will continue to slide.Consumers are tapped out.What do we expect?

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