Real Estate News by GLG Council Members
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
June 2, 2008
Why is there no effort by the media to understand the DEMAND side of the housing industry?
Analysis of:
The Truth Behind Florida's Housing Numbers (online.wsj.com)
Why is there no effort by the media to understand the DEMAND side of the housing industry?
This article is just another example of somewhat reckless reporting by the “drive-by” media. Yes, there was excessive overbuilding of housing during the three years prior to 2006. Yes, there is a huge number of empty or unsold housing that must be sold over the next few years. This message is old and it has been beaten to death -- supply – supply – supply. It’s time for new media...
Analysis of:
Best time in years to be a renter (www.eastvalleytribune.com)
When you combine rents set and projected at unrealistic levels and an economy where only 22% of jobs statewide pay $17 per hour plus benefits with a surplus of single family homes, you get high vacancy rates in apartment communities. When the government is seeking higher tax revenue from income property with increased assessments and the property insurers are raising rates and the utilities...
Analysis of:
The Truth Behind Florida's Housing Numbers (online.wsj.com)
Values for ad valorem tax purposes tell a different story. Ad valorem assessments for 2008 and forecasted for 2009 suggest sales are lower than during the bubble, but so far the sky has not fallen.
Analysis of:
Apartment Starts Will Trend Down After this Year, Held Low by Shadow Inventory, Condo-to-Rental Conversions, Says NAHB Economist (www.multihousingnews.com)
Las Vegas is in the midst of an explosion of Mega projects. The city is looking for 40,000+ new employess to fill jobs at these resorts. Where will these people live given the new mortgage parameters? Although apartment starts are somewhat down, the large number of condo buildings will provide some answers.
Analysis of:
Sears Reports a Loss, Citing Gas and Food Prices (www.nytimes.com)
Sears stores sales down 9.8%, Kmart down 7.1%, and comp stores down 8.6%, all supposedly due to the price of gas and food. Q1:08 EPS -$0.53 v. consensus of +$0.15. While the interim CEO, Bruce Johnson, blames outside events for the poorer-than-expected showing, he also makes a puzzling comment that he "expects higher EBITDA for the full year". This comment alone will provide fodder for...
Analysis of:
Consumers Are Downbeat on Economy (online.wsj.com)
An improvement in consumer sentiment will lead to an improvement in new home traffic and home sales, as well as an improvement in other areas of the economy. Buyers that “feel” good make confident purchases. Watch consumer sentiment and confidence indices, as well as BREC traffic count figures, for improvements, which we expect late in 2008.
Analysis of:
Apartment Starts Will Trend Down After this Year, Held Low by Shadow Inventory, Condo-to-Rental Conversions, Says NAHB Economist (www.multihousingnews.com)
We need to stop looking at the "multifamily market" as a single market. Clearly, given the current condominium market (or lack thereof), we need to talking in terms of rental apartments and for-sale condominium product, regardless of whether some of that condo product may temporarily be placed into the rental market. These are two entirely different markets, and if you are looking for proof of that...
Analysis of:
Shopping Centers Feast On Acquisitions (nreionline.com)
The combination of a slowing economy and turbulent debt markets has finally hit the US commercial office market. Although a great deal of equity capital remains ready to invest, between the meltdown and risk-adjustment in the financing markets, deteriorating operating fundamentals and herd mentality withdrawal from the market, office investment transaction values are down 70% from last year as...
Analysis of:
As Dues Dry Up, The Neighbors Pay (online.wsj.com)
Rising costs and high delinquencies are pushing HOAs into bankruptcy. Add HOA solvency to your underwriting checklist.
Analysis of:
Housing Prices Going Lower (www.lvrj.com)
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of 855It easy to think nationally when reading of the foreclosure number increases;the glut of homes and the downward impact on price point when,in fact,there are many regions of the country that have not been as adversely affected by speculator development and inflated land values. Connecticut is one of several states that have weathered the storm and continue to have considerably healthier...
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