Real Estate News by GLG Council Members

Excess money is on the sidelines for commercial real estate

November 20, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:A sector too tough to save | online.wsj.com

Gamblers might loose if they bet on a major CRE crash.1.) The estimated total value of CRE in the US is $6TR. Total debt is $3.5TR. That LTV of less than 60% is not overleveraged, as was residential.2.) Loan modifications are now favored by recent IRS and Fed rules changes.3.) REITS are sitting on $BB of cash to buy up everything at a 6% to 8% return, and are buying everything that comes up.4.) Hedge...

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates

Is This Mr. Lampert's 8th or 9th Life?

November 19, 2009

Analysis of:Sears Narrows Loss, Beats Estimates but Stock Falls | www.chicagobusiness.com

A flurry of articles have come out in recent days seemingly to diffuse the continuing failures of Mr. Lampert's prize holding. This article deals with the "surprise" caused by the losses being slightly less than expected. The others deal with the various new ventures Mr. Lampert has announced in his continuing efforts to slow SHLD's decline into oblivion.

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

A Happy Thanksgiving for Las Vegas

November 18, 2009

Analysis of:NEVADA ECONOMY: State showing some life at last | www.lvrj.com

 This year, October data could make Thanksgiving a happy holiday for Las Vegas real estate professionals. 

Current Construction Activities in FL

November 16, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Building Boom for Orlando Resorts | www.floridatrend.com

This article reports an example of "wise" investing during rough economic time in Florida. It is interesting to note, "building during a recession actually had its advantages."

Commercial Real Estate Impact on Economy Understated

November 16, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Fed’s Lockhart Says Commercial Real Estate May Weaken Recovery | www.bloomberg.com

Understated indeed! Since there's nothing particularly newsworthy in the article, I assume the Atlanta Fed President is stumping for reappointment. The collection of now well-worn one-liners offered by the Fed representatives (and government officials, specifically from the Treasury & FDIC) is insulting to knowledgable listeners and should be embarrassing to the speaker. The assumptions and justifications...

Argentina Real Estate: Caveat Emptor

November 12, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Argentina Real Estate: Still Holding Up | www.nuwireinvestor.com

This article is a “not-so-subtle” pitch to small investors to look into Argentine real estate as an attractive investment alternative.The article  fails to point out several, market, political and economic trends that, undoubtedly, increase the risk for this proposed investment.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

Where is the Silver Lining?

November 11, 2009

Analysis of:Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis - Bloomberg.com | www.bloomberg.com

This article supports everything this writer and many others have been saying, there will be no descernable recovery until the unemployment rate begins to dramatically drop.

At Best, an Incremental Step In the Right Direction

November 6, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:CMBS Savior? Developers Diversified Deal Is Nearer | online.wsj.com

The pending Developers Diversified ("DDR") transaction represents, at best, a marginal step in the right direction with respect to getting the CMBS machine back on track. The successful launch of a new CMBS transaction, and placement of the related bonds should be considered a victory given the dearth of CMBS deals over the past +12months. At the same time the nature/characteristics of the transaction...

The Current Real Estate Downturn is Different

November 4, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Real Estate Downturn of the Early ’90s Differs From Today’s Crash In Important Ways | nreionline.com

Unlike prior downturns where economic weakness compounded with addition of recently completed property supply contributed to commercial real estate downturn, the current downturn has been fueled by excessive use of creative debt financing. The unwinding of creative leverage will take longer than previously and could delay recovery.

Irish Commercial Real Estate - What is the Natural Vacancy Rate?

November 4, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Dublin Office Report Q3 2009 | edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk

The 'natural' vacancy rate in Irish commercial property markets may be twice agents' current published estimatesImplies that the turning point in Irish office market could come sooner than expected

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