Financial & Business Services News by GLG Council Members

Joseph ChathamPresidentChatham Mortgage Partners Inc.

Lower Rates, While Great, Do Little For Jumbo Lending

October 1, 2009

Analysis of:Real Estate Outlook: Mortgage Rate Dip Impacts Housing | realtytimes.com

The Realty Times article reflects the positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage originations and home purchases, but fails to note the failure of said rates to transcend the conforming/conventional markets into the jumbo markets. The implications of this failure are that many homeowners in the higher cost states (CA, NY, MA, etc.) still cannot get competitive financing; thus, drivinghome...

NAMA and equity raising at Bank of Ireland

October 1, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Bank Of Ireland Confident on Capital | www.nytimes.com

Bank of Ireland may be able to raise internal capital following NAMA though says rights issue not required. Many variable market related factors and accounting assumptions must fall in their favor, while a Euro 1bn fresh equity requirement is more likely over a 3 year horizon. The Irish Government with its NAMA policy is giving the banks time in which to raise equity. BOI have just raised a €1bnunsecured...

Marshall MaysFounder & DirectorEmerging Alpha Advisors, Ltd.

The new sub-prime market - another slow-motion disaster

October 1, 2009

Analysis of:Asian freight lines face threat of seizure | www.ft.com

1. Ship financing has usually been risky business, but during the 2003-07 go-go years that corresponded with the debt bubble it all seemed free and easy.2.Like US commercial property, ship construction got a lot of non-bank money, so now some funds will suffer - but so will the CDOs the bankers stuffed with ship credits.3. As the Baltic Dry Index plot suggests, a "death spiral" has begun in thisasset...

Peanuts compared to Japan BPO market huge untapped potential

September 30, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Apac BPO market to hit US$28B by 2013 | www.zdnetasia.com

Professional surveys usually state Asia-Pacific region - excluding Japan -However Japan still ranks second largest economy Worldwide with huge untapped potential for daring BPO vendors Cultural barriers and lack of local knowledge explain this.

Can Xerox Integrate ACS?

September 30, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Xerox Deal Isn't as Grim as It Looks | online.wsj.com

Xerox has agreed in principle to purchase Affiliated Computer Services for roughly $ 5.6B. Is this a catch-up strategy? Do they have the ability to succeed from a financial and management view? Who's taking over whom?

Marshall MaysFounder & DirectorEmerging Alpha Advisors, Ltd.

Global capacity adjustment - not just a China PR stunt

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:China moves to curb industrial capacity | www.ft.com

1. Overcapacity is a recurring Chinese problem, in the name of employment management and overall growth. 2. High export dependency (42% in 4Q08) exposed the economy to infrastructure bottlenecks, trade friction and increased risk of oversteering. 3. The need to adjust is real, but the bigger risks are social fragmentation, a global loss of confidence in the China growth story and severely reduced...

In China, Neither Side Wants Derivatives Confrontation

September 29, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Low Heat Likely as China Stews On Derivatives Losses | www.reuters.com

China Derivatives Fallout likely LimitedA number of reports in late summer said China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration was giving its tacit sanction to Chinese companies to back out of loss-making derivatives positions. However, a recent Reuters story (Sept. 29) suggests  that both sides will aim to head off litigation or even arbitration. On the one hand, Chinese authorities recognize...

Pillars of the Bull Market Provide Weak Long Term Foundation

September 29, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Stock market analysis | www.nbc-2.com

Two of the pillars of the recent bull market are that cash is waiting on the sidelines and the worst of the housing market is behind us.  Unfortunately, neither of these arguments is based upon facts.

Xerox Acquisition of ACS Fits Vision, Execution Likely to Be More Difficult

September 29, 2009

Analysis by:GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Xerox Bets Big on Services | www.businessweek.com

Xerox's acquisition of ACS really does fit with its vision of owning all aspects of document management.  It is also a much better fit and price than what Dell obtained with Perot Systems.  However, execution is likely to be more difficult, as the ACS business will bring new management challenges associated with a large (and lower end) services business and the synergies are far from assured.

Joseph ChathamPresidentChatham Mortgage Partners Inc.

It is all in the "W"

September 28, 2009

Analysis of:KB Home Loss Narrows on Fewer Write-Downs | online.wsj.com

KB, a lower cost builder, is benefitting from the perception that we have hit the bottom. We have not. Thus, the peak of the inside of the "W" is about to wane.

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