Mr. William Dever

GLG News^SM Analyses by William Dever(?)

Harmonic MPEG 4 Entry

July 27, 2006

Analysis of:MPEG-4 HD encoders - Harmonic's entry | www.harmonicinc.com

*EXPANSION OF VIDEO SERVICES VIA INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDERS

* MIGRATION PATH CLEAR BETWEEN MPEG2 AND MPEG4 PART 10

* EFFICIENCY OF BANDWIDTH USE ALLOWING MORE SERVICE PROVIDER ENTRY

Technology creates market erosion for telco's

April 11, 2006

Analysis of:Convergence carving into telco growth rates | www.telecomtv.com

While the voices of doom herald the fall of traditional telephony, convergence offers a phoenix like opportunity to evolve for the telco. Convergence has certainly blurred the lines of product offerings, but in reality the telco is best positioned to bring forth a new set of bundled offerings into the marketplace.

The rise of the "digital utility" is upon us. Telcos will reinvent themselves into this model and quickly grab the opportunity this new industry set brings. With the introduction of IP driven technology, home networking, wi-fi and pc based telephony, the consumer is taking more and more responsibility for his/her service choices.

With the implementation of city wide WI-FI ie San Francisco and Philadelphia, the concept of a IP based mobile telephony comes into practical existence. Any transaction which would be better tracked and served with an IP header could soon come under the domain of these new evolving digital utilities. Home Security, meter reading, bundled billing could all be very lucrative profit centers for such a utility.

The telco is dead...long live the telco (with some slight modifications)

DVB-H: Problems Waiting to Happen

April 10, 2006

Analysis of:CTIA: Is DVB-H the way to go? | www.telecoms-mag.com

Mobile Phone is Video is a burgeoning, exceedingly profitable market. Its provides mobile telephony providers with a new stream of substantial income. Tests have shown the market is  ready and willing and able to accept this new product offering.

The problem is that there is a still a shootout between DVB-H (touted by NOKIA), DMB and Qualcomm's MediaFlo for technology supremacy. Each technology provides its own set of solutions and more importantly its own set of problems.

The Rise of Mobile Video

April 10, 2006

Analysis of:Cingular Video Pushes Big into Mobile Programming | www.telecoms-mag.com

Like in Asia, mobile will take off in a very big way in North America In the U.S. mobile video user base may balloon to more than 20 million by the end of 2007, up from less than 1 million today. Assuming each subscriber pays $5 a month for such services, that would translate to a $1.2 billion market. Worldwide, more than 250 million people are expected to be watching mobile video by 2010, generating some $27 billion in sales, vs. with $200 million today.

The video use via mobile phone by release of Flash 8 and it set of on-demand tools as well as the development of Flash 8 enabled phone appliances. This provide an inexpensive point of entry and will acclerate adoption rate significantly.

Quite forseeably the video demand could overwhelm networks. Analysts have predicted that by the end of 2007, if 40% of all users utilize 8 minutes of video a day, the network capacity will have been reached. What has to happen is that in parallel to the existing telephony wireless infrastructure an infrastructure for wireless mobile TV has to be created, technologies like Qualcomm MediaFlo have to be implemented if such a service is to be a realistic offering. Other alternatives include a set of technologies known as multimedia broadcast and multicast service, which takes existing network traffic and compresses it. The problem is at current capacity this technology will only allow 3 channels of content. Nokia is touting the DVB-H network, which like Media offers a network solely dedicated to mobile tv broadcasting. The problem with the DVB-H system is that currently it can take up to ten seconds to change from one program stream to another....in a remote control mad world, this is far too long.