Mr. Toby Kolstad
President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Member of the Transportation Council
Council Member Biography
Toby Kolstad is President of Rail Theory Forecasts, a firm providing consulting and forecasting services in North American rail freight traffic and railcar demand. Mr. Kolstad has more than 35 years of experience in the railroad industry. He also has experience in managing railroad operations. Prior, Mr. Kolstad was Vice President at Greenbrier Leasing, Director of Car Management at The Denver and Rio Grande Railroad, and General Superintendent for the Illinois Central RR. He holds a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Tulane University, an MS in Applied Mathematics from the California Institute of Technology, and an MBA in Operations Research from the University of Chicago. (This is me - Update Profile)
Employment History
- 2001 - Unspecified
- President, Rail Theory Forecasts
- 1989 - 2001
- Vice President, GREENBRIER LEASING COMPANY LLC
- 1985 - 1989
- Director of Car Management, The Denver and Rio Grande Railroad (D&RG)
- 1971 - 1985
- General Superintendent of Car Control, ILLINOIS CENTRAL RAILROAD COMPANY (INC)
GLG NewsSM Analyses by Toby Kolstad(?)
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NS needs to have its vision checked; most of its markets are unchanged
February 2, 2010
Norfolk Southern Executives: Seeing Improvement In Most Core Markets | money.cnn.com
Notwithstanding the recent news release that business conditions are improving in most of the railroad's core markets, the weekly numbers released by the AAR for January show traffic gains in only one are area (automobile and auto parts traffic) over last year’s numbers for the same weeks. However, the usual bounce from the holiday lows is still in progress and there may be some wishful thinking that the numbers will go even higher.
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Wind energy continues to eat into coal’s domain
January 29, 2010
Record Year for New Wind Power Installations in the U.S. | www.energyonline.com
As recently as last January, the EIA of the Department of Energy was forecasting an increase of over 6 Gigawatts of new coal fired electrical power and only 2 Gigawatts of new wind energy. At year end, the totals were a little different, with wind power increasing over 9 Gigawatts and coal fired electric installations totaling only 4.8 Gigawatts. These trends do not bode well for rail transportation.
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Railroad traffic is good coincident indicator
January 22, 2010
Railroads Signal a Tepid US Economic Recovery | abcnews.go.com
Like the canary in the coal mine, railroad traffic is a good indicator of what is happening now, but don’t try to see the future in the weekly AAR carload and intermodal reports. Rail carload traffic showed mixed signs in the fourth quarter and intermodal loads showed no real improvement after seasonality adjustments. That’s not very encouraging to those expecting to see a big jump in the GDP for the fourth quarter or for continued growth in 2010.
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Rail Fans are usually lousy railroad investors
January 18, 2010
Freight trains make big comeback in nation's transportation network | www.latimes.com
Traditionally, they only way railroads made real money in the past was by selling their properties to other companies at inflated prices that anticipated better earning than would ever develop. Too much is made of the fuel efficiency of a railroad operation and too little is said of the long delivery times by railroad compared to transport by highway, and little mention is ever made of the dependence of railroads on the movement of coal.
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Rising tides cans sink some boats as well as lift them
December 6, 2009
Freight Adds Weight on Broad Rally | www.thestreet.com
For some railcar builders, the recovery will be measured in years, not months, and they may be the lucky ones. It is too early to confirm, but there may have been a fundamental shift in railroad traffic, and not all builders are positioned to benefit from the recovery in railroad traffic that is expected in 2010. Only time will tell if there will be another industry shakeout like the early 1980’s.
GLG Study Groups with Toby Kolstad(?)
| Study Group Name | No. Members |
|---|---|
| Rail Shipping Service Experts | 155 |
| Intermodal Logistics Experts | 138 |
| Railcar Leasing Experts | 132 |
| Iron Ore Mining Experts | 119 |
| Railcar Market Experts (EU) | 69 |
GLG Live Meetings with Toby Kolstad(?)
Recent Seminars
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October 8, 2009 | New York
Seminar: Rail Trends (New York) -
September 29, 2008 | New York
GLG Seminar: (NYC) Rail Cars -
September 25, 2008 | Chicago
GLG Seminar: (Chicago) Rail Cars -
October 2, 2007 | Boston
GLGi: Rail Industry Forecast -
October 11, 2006 | San Francisco
GLGi: Railcar Business Cycle