Mr. Simon Atkins MBA

GLG News^SM Analyses by Simon Atkins(?)

The Forecast Mix Of Mr. Naimi, El Nino, An Oil Contango And The H1N1 Flu

September 23, 2009

Analysis of:The Old Man and the Sea of Oil | www.rigzone.com

For many a wrong reason, bulls in crude believe that the “Old Man” (Mr. Naimi) is right (in his saying there has been "a fundamental change" in the oil market) when he says that the global economy is recovering.  In addition, many oil bulls think the “Little Boy” (El Nino) will remain weak this winter despite most forecasts saying it won’t.  To top off the confusing mix of signals, let’s mix in the H1N1 flu. It’s strange, but the mix might be something that needs to go into a risk portfolio.

Natural Gas Decoupling From Crude; Take Chesapeake Energy Comments With A Grain Of Salt, Especially If Long-Range Winter '08 Forecasts Pan Out True

September 24, 2008

Analysis of:Natural Gas Futures Advance As Output Slow To Resume in Gulf | www.bloomberg.com

This article has three main issues: 1) Aubrey McClendon, the CEO of Chesapeake Energy Corp, the second-biggest U.S. independent natural gas producer, says that up to 400 drilling rigs might shut down by the end of 2008; 2) There are worries that natural gas winter supplies will be less than anticipated after hurricanes Ike and Gustav caused havoc in the Gulf.  Even though no winter forecast is given, it will be interesting to note what does happen with natural gas prices especially with a couple of early to mid-Fall and mid-winter Canadian blasts well below normal likely occur; 3) Will natural gas decouple from oil?

Linking Human Activity With Arctic Sea Ice Shrinkage: How Much More Wool Do We Have To Pull Over Our Eyes?

September 17, 2008

Analysis of:Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks To 2nd-Lowest On Record | www.usatoday.com

Human beings boast about having kept sea ice records for just 30 years.  Then we have the audacity to say there is an “alarming trend” of arctic sea ice shrinkage.  The most frightening aspect is that this ‘theory’ that human activity is causing the majority of sea ice shrinkage is going to have a heck of a negative impact on business especially in the energy, insurance, environmental, and financial sectors over the next five years.

Khelil Predicts Oil At $170 By The End Of 2008? Usually I Might Agree, But Not This Time

July 1, 2008

Analysis of:OPEC Leader Khelil Says Dollar Will Drive Oil to $170 | www.bloomberg.com

Chakib Khelil, Algerian Oil Minister and OPEC President, predicts that oil will climb to $170 a barrel by 12/31/08 due to the likelihood that political pressure on Iran as well as other conflicts and turmoil will continue, and on further speculation that the US dollar will see further decline (weakening against the Euro in particular). Khelil, as well as most other OPEC oil ministers, believe that the increasing price of oil is not linked to supply, and that there is more than enough oil in the market to meet the international demand. I have followed Khelil’s public words for over 5 years now, and when he says / forecasts something regarding crude, particularly with regard to its future price, I have calculated that the man is 84% accurate.  So it may be a bit of a surprise that I have to disagree with his prediction of $170 by the end of 2008, especially when it almost seems almost a certainty to some that oil will continue rising.  My commentary explains the logic.

Don't Hold Your Breath Waiting For Mass-Market Hydrogen Car Buyers

June 24, 2008

Analysis of:The Last Car You Would Ever Buy--Literally: Why We Shouldn't Get Excited By The Latest Hydrogen Cars | www.technologyreview.com

If you build it, it’s almost certain the media will come, and they certainly did come in hoards recently to see Honda’s new FCX Clarity.  However, the proposed hydrogen fuel cell economy is a fantasy in the media hype consciousness. Why should oil companies (or government) spend tens of billions of dollars building a hydrogen fueling infrastructure, which at best will take away business from their gasoline sales, and at worst will be a complete business loss, assuming as now seems likely, that hydrogen cars never catch on? Sure, hydrogen can be made from carbon-free sources of power like wind energy or nuclear (but has not so far), but so can electricity for electric cars.  Hydrogen cars are just outright inefficient, very costly and have little to no supporting infrastructure in place compared with electric cars. In two years, GM and Toyota have promised to deliver plug-in hybrids. That will be a real step closer to a future free of petroleum.

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