
President & Founder, Chelsea Advisory Services
Member of the Financial Services Council
Raj Mehra is the President of Chelsea Advisory Services, a financial risk and forensic accounting advisory firm in Washington DC. He has over 21 years of experience in areas such as banking, subprime mortgages, credit card, auto and student lending. Mr. Mehra is an expert in securitization and structured financing vehicles including asset backed securities, CDO's, off-balance sheet conduits, asset-backed commercial paper and auction rate securities. He has spoken extensively on a wide variety of accounting issues in banking and finance. He was Chief Financial Officer of a bank and a student lender, and a Senior Director at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Mr. Mehra has held positions in trading at JP Morgan Chase and Credit Suisse. He has managed investments in complex mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. Mr. Mehra is a member of the American Banking Association, the Global Association of Risk Professionals, the American Securitization Forum, and the Mortgage Bankers Association. (This is me - Update Profile)
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Low Loan Loss Reserves at Banks Could Cause Problems Ahead
September 20, 2007
E*Trade Hit By Mortgage Turmoil | online.wsj.com
Loan loss reserves at banks are at historic lows. At the same time, the credit cycle has turned viciously negative, particularly for mortgages. Banking regulators are likely to ratchet the pressure up on banks to raise their loss reserves. The most vulnerable are banks with outsized exposure to the mortgage lending business
Countrywide Spells Out Its Strategy to Manage Credit Market Crisis
September 10, 2007
Countrywide Communicates Staff Reductions to Employees | online.wsj.com
Countywide's announcement late last Friday and Angelo Mozilo's letter to employees provide a unique window into CFC's strategy for addressing the impact of the credit crisis on its business. The letter provides details on the steps that CFC is taking to shelter itself from the fallout. Unfortunately, the strategy, while undoubtedly aggressive, may not be enough.
Writedowns of Retained Interests Could be Next Shoe to Drop for Subprime Lenders
September 5, 2007
NovaStar to Slash Lending and Cut Jobs | www.nytimes.com
Retained interests from securitizations made up more than 75% of the shareholder's equity at NFI. Also, the company has elected to finance these securities. Demand, never very strong to begin with, has deteriorated severely in the last month. The company could be forced to recognize a sizeable writedown in its retained interests, which will reduce book value. Other lenders that have sizeable retained interest holdings include Countrywide Financial ('CFC') and Rescap Holdings (a subsidiary of GMAC).
Thoughts on the impact on third quarter earnings from the crisis in subprime mortgages
August 27, 2007
Bank Profits May Well Suffer, but Credit Crisis Hardly Leaves Them Defenseless | www.nytimes.com
Several banks will be closing their third quarter soon. The credit crisis intensified in the third quarter - what impact should we expect to see from the bankruptcies, plummeting market values, the virtual demise of the collateralized debt obligations market etc. - Some banks will write down goodwill related to acquisitions of mortgage companies, and book charges to earnings. Market capitalization of typical subprime mortgage company is about a third of the book equity, so the impairment could be sizeable - The rating agency downgrades of residential and asset backed securities will cause some banks to write down the book value of their investment securities. For the banks that were also warehouse lenders for failed CDO deals, this charge could be significant
Some of the Red Flags to look out for
August 20, 2007
How Missed Signs Contributed to a Mortgage Meltdown | www.nytimes.com
The debacle in subprime bonds was side stepped by some investors. They were able to spot warning signs while others ignored or missed them. A lot of this information was in plain sight. Others could have found the same red flags, if only they knew what to look for
Raj Mehra has not participated in any GLG Live Meetings.
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