Mr. John Krier

GLG News^SM Analyses by John Krier(?)

The Fatal Flaw in This Analysis

December 29, 2008

Analysis of:U.S. expects big drop in oil imports | money.cnn.com

The lack of key assumptions by the EIA.

Russia Going Forward

November 5, 2008

Analysis of:Global crisis only adds to long financial anxiety in Russia | www.iht.com

1) The fear engendered by the crisis is spreading to the average Russian. Somehow the conventional wisdom among international finance people has concluded that only the Oligarchs will be affected. But Russians are Russians. They are suspicious of governmemnt institutions and even Putin's popularity wion't preclude a panic.   2) The vaunted "reserves" which actually peaked at $575 Bil US are dwindling fast and with other Eastern countries already teetering the worst is yet to come. The chickens born of arrogant business practices (i.e. the B.P. fiasco) and the Georgian invasion  are coming home to roost. Trust in the Russians is a low ebb at just the wrong time.

The Downside of Temple Industries

October 31, 2008

Analysis of:Temple-Inland Reports Third Quarter Result | www.paperage.com

Temple has been eviscerated by Icahn to the extent that their long term viability is questionable anyway.  Yes they are well managed but they have lost their key component for healthy returns in the future and that would be control over their own raw materials (forestlands) So-called "long term agreements" with landowners are only good as long as the landowner wants them to be.    

A Close Observer's Perspective

October 27, 2008

Analysis of:Europe Says Gas Cartel Would Force Revision of Energy Policy | online.wsj.com

There is no way the EU can summon the political will to create energy policies that would effectively punish the proposed cartel. After the invasion og Georgia and the weak response to Russian export taxes on round-log timber it has become even more apparent to the Russians that "divide and conquer" can be easily accomplished with respect to the EU members.  Starting with the Nord Strom pipeline that was pushed by the corrupt Gerhard Schroeder administration (he now makes 1 mil Euros/yr as Gazprom's German M.D.) and still supported by the Merkel government, the Russians have already split the EU to the extent that a coordinated policy becomes impossible. However, the Europeans like to be considered on the cutting edge of the Green Movement. This means when the current lquidity crisis and ensuing recession have passed they will resume building alternative energy facilities, but not as part of a coordinated policy. In sum the Russians, et al. have nothing to fear. John Krier   

Why Oil is a Classic Commodity Bubble

June 11, 2008

Analysis of:Why oil prices will tank | money.cnn.com

After 32 years in the commodity business as a trader, administrator, and analyst, I have seen hundreds of cash and futures markets tops and bottoms. They always react the same with rare exceptions.  The volatility increases in the the more liquid futures markets  with breathtaking ups and downs that have absolutely no relation to cash fundamentals.  Traders will tell you that futures are only going up because of tightness of supply and increase in demand from swiftly emerging markets like China. On the surface this is true but a closer look would belie this kind of "conventional wisdom"  AAA has been reporting drops in aggregate mileage driven in the US since last October and it is excelerating. The last monthly report showed 4% YOY. China is temporarily hoarding diesel due to the Olympics and now the earthquake. Whenever the market shows weakness you will see Iran rattling sabers.Gasoline stocks are increasing.  When the "top" repeatedly fails the crash will set in: 1-2 months