Mr. Chris Lin

GLG News^SM Analyses by Chris Lin(?)

More Chinese Visas Will Produce More Chinese Flights for U.S. Carriers

February 15, 2007

Analysis of:U.S. Seeks More China Flights | www.thestreet.com

Absent any concession from the U.S. negotiators, China is unlikely to expand the number of U.S. carrier flights to China any faster than the currently agreed additional daily flight for each of the next three years.

While the market between the U.S. and China remains weighted towards American citizens both for business as well as leisure travel, modest liberalization of visa policy by the U.S. would not only fill most of the empty seats on Chinese airlines which already fly to the U.S. but would also generate enough additional demand to justify not one but two daily flights beginning next year for at least three years.

Loss of Simplicity May Undermine Results

February 12, 2007

Analysis of:World's first low-cost airline alliance | www.smh.com.au

JetBlue's alliance with Aer Lingus certainly broadens the reach of both carriers, but will also place pressure on their low cost business models.

Similar combinations are certain to follow and will place additional pressure on the same yields for economy class travellers that many network carriers had hoped to utilize to cover their higher costs of operation.

These alliances are not expected to significantly divert business travellers from network carriers due to the pervasive influence of frequent flyer programs and corporate travel cobtracts.

American Taps Growing Market to China

April 18, 2006

Analysis of:American Airlines Lands in China | www.chinadaily.com.cn

The launch of daily nonstop flights between Chicago and Shanghai continues American’s efforts to expand its international network while continuing to reduce its operating expenses via fleet simplification, process improvement and purchasing efficiency. The new flights will certainly be popular with members of American’s AAdvantage frequent flyer program who can avoid connecting in Tokyo to get to Shanghai.

But American remains a minor player to China compared to United which serves Beijing and Shanghai as well as Hong Kong from both Chicago and Shanghai. Increased presence for American will depend short term on this week’s U.S.-China bilateral air service agreement talks in Beijing. Unless the existing agreement is changed only seven new frequencies will be available as of March 2007 and Delta being the only major U.S. carrier without flights to China is expected to emerge with Atlanta-Beijing rights. For American to have much chance of receiving additional China frequencies for 2007, Chinese carriers such as Shanghai Airlines and Hainan Airlines would need to push the Chinese government for U.S. rights in 2007 rather than in 2008 when the 787s they have ordered will become operational.