Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Calix Adamant It Would Have No Interest in Acquiring Adtran’s TA 5000

March 19, 2009

Analysis of:ADTRAN FTTP Strategy Strengthens Comprehensive Portfolio for Broadband Stimulus | callcenterinfo.tmcnet.com

1.     We recently suggested a scenario in which a Tellabs/Adtran merger could lead to the sale of the TA 5000. 2.     Calix says that it can see no justification in adding the product to its portfolio. 3.     Calix also argues that the TA 5000 is being leveraged for some very obscure applications.

It is Only Now That IMS is Potentially Useful for Verizon

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless Selects Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent for LTE | www.convergedigest.com

1.  It is the LTE/FiOS combination that will give IMS its chance with Verizon. 2.  Up until this time, there were a number of barriers to the convergence of wireless and landline networks in the US. 3.  There is now the possibility of at least an adequate payback in the expenditure of IMS by Verizon.

Sprint Nextel Combination One of the Worst Ideas in Corporate History

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint faces suit over Nextel merger | www.bizjournals.com

1.  Manufacturers buy other vendors for technology. 2.  It would be hard to come up with another case in which a service provider purchased another carrier just for that purpose – in this case, push-to-talk. 3.  At least indirectly, Sprint will continue to pay the price for this blunder well into the future.

Ericsson Could Preempt Ciena on Nortel Unit

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena Said to Consider Bid for Nortel’s Fiber-Optic Division | www.bloomberg.com

1.  Before this story came out, many industry analysts were thinking it would be nothing short of suicidal for Ciena’s upper management to make a purchase at this time. 2.  In general, Ciena does not even seem in the mood to make an acquisition. 3.  Fairly fresh off what is increasingly looking like a World Wide Packet pickup fiasco, it may be hard for the optical supplier to pull the trigger.

Clearwire Appears to be Getting More Practical on Locations

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Clearwire Hiring in Atlanta & Vegas | www.unstrung.com

1.  It seems as if Clearwire is concentrating more on conducting business than in exhibiting at a science fair. 2.  There is probably a good chance that the industry will no longer hear about experiments with topographies, etc. 3.  It should be all about getting the biggest bang for the buck.

Hawaiian Telcom Probably Should Not Emerge

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Hawaiian Telcom seeks more time for Chapter 11 plan | www.totaltele.com

1.  It is quite amusing that state utility regulators should think their opinion should count on the matter of Hawaiian Telcom. 2.  Where were they all these years? 3.  The most “devastating effect on [Hawaii]” would be to leave this company intact.

40G and 100G – Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, and Others

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:DT Checks Out 100G | www.lightreading.com

1.  Ericsson is a big player in DWDM transport, especially in Europe. 2.  It provides service routers as well that may require higher-end optical electronics.   3.  A rundown on some of the other 40G/100G suppliers can be found below.

Would Tellabs buy Adtran?

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:ADTRAN FTTP Strategy Strengthens Comprehensive Portfolio for Broadband Stimulus | callcenterinfo.tmcnet.com

1.  The cultures are very similar at both Tellabs and Adtran. 2.  They are both nut-and-bolts kinds of companies without a lot of flash. 3.  The question is whether Tellabs would want to get back into the access space.

Nokia Siemens Possibly Buying Nortel’s Wireless Business Makes A Lot of Sense

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:Nortel Is in Talks to Sell Key Units to Rivals | online.wsj.com

1.  With talks apparently going on between Verizon Wireless and Nokia about an LTE device agreement, the latter could be very interested in further bolstering its negotiating position with the former through a buyout of Nortel’s wireless product line. 2.  There is no doubt that Verizon wants a supplier that it can count on to further support and upgrade its 3G EV-DO network. 3.  There can be little argument that Nortel would receive “a lot more value [this way] rather than emerging.”

WiMAX Never Really Did Have the Big Mo

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:Is WiMAX’s momentum lost? | telephonyonline.com

1.  “Cautious” will be the operable term from now on at Clearwire. 2.  Most of its major investors will apparently not put up with grand illusions anymore.   3.  It is not a “must [that Clearwire deploy] a nationwide network.”

Verizon Essentially Pushing the Idea That It is No Longer a Phone Company

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon's Doreen Toben to Present at Raymond James Conference on March 9 | marketplace.news.yahoo.net

1.  We have been talking about it for quite some time that Verizon has long wanted to rid itself of as many copper POTS lines as possible. 2.  They did not tend to be moneymakers for the carrier. 3.  So, in addition to its wireless operation, it is turning more into “a broadband and video service” provider.

Is Tellabs Looking to Announce a New Broadband Cross-Connect?

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:Tellabs chief expects Supercomm to showcase innovation | telephonyonline.com

1.  Is Tellabs telegraphing a new product announcement at SuperComm? 2.  The term, “innovation and imagination” seems to imply more than just additional feature/functionality on existing solutions. 3.  Ciena should be very interested in knowing the meaning behind Tellabs’ rhetoric.

FairPoint Likely to Wind Up in Good Shape

March 12, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint reports $76m loss after Verizon acquisition | www.unionleader.com

1.  The latest DSL Prime newsletter expresses some concern about the fate of FairPoint Communications. 2.  The publication claims, “any financial analysis shows them soon insolvent.” 3.  However, it correctly points out that Verizon has no interest in seeing FairPoint go under.

New CEO Likely to Radically Change Clearwire

March 11, 2009

Analysis of:Clearwire gets a new CEO; Wolff moves to co-chairman | www.fiercewireless.com

1.  If there is any company that needs a total “overhaul,” it is Clearwire. 2.  In the past, its new CEO, Bill Morrow, has been referred to as a “turnaround guy” and a “fixer-in-chief.” 3.  It will be one tall order to do a makeover on Clearwire.

Not a Shocker that Sprint Seems to be Moving to LTE

March 11, 2009

Analysis of:Daily Rumor: Sprint | www.thestreet.com

1.  The evidence has been slowly building that Sprint would have to go with LTE as its 4G technology. 2.  In late 2007, we asserted that, “WiMAX is increasingly perceived by analysts to be just a sucking sound for large amounts of capital.” 3.  Sprint’s reply to the blog, which started the speculation, winds up being yet another example of the lack of true commitment by the wireless carrier to WiMAX.

Ciena’s Four Strikes on Major Packet Equipment Acquisitions?

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena Cuts 200 Jobs as Sales Plummet | www.lightreading.com

1.  Usually, it’s three strikes and you’re out. 2.  Ciena has taken four big swings, and missed, at packet-type company purchases – and while it is very doubtful that it would take another one in the short term, of course, it could not be ruled out in the long term. 3.  It has paid a high price because of its fixation on being called an Ethernet company.

Verizon Still Confident it Can Differentiate FiOS with Content

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Losses Hit TW Cable | www.multichannel.com

1.  There is a large amount of skepticism by industry analysts that Verizon’s FiOS can pull away subscribers from the MSOs because of unique programming and content. 2.  However, Verizon hopes to offer some pretty high-quality services as a result of them being delivered over fiber. 3.  On-line gaming is one example.

Cisco Systems -- Optical Transport and Switching

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:One on One with Cisco CEO John Chambers | www.pbs.org

1.  It was not surprising that Cisco Systems was one of the last major DWDM companies to talk about a 40G strategy. 2.  Of course, its preoccupation is on the router side of the house. 3.  Nevertheless, in having an end-to-end strategy, it needs a minimum amount of optical transport and switching equipment.

Rough Rest of Year Expected for Ciena’s Revenues

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena Dips in Q1 | www.lightreading.com

1.  Ciena rightly points out that the two major RBOCs are not cancelling orders. 2.  However, actual deliveries have slowed down to a crawl. 3.  While this space will improve in the second half of this year for Ciena, there will not be anything resembling a buying spree for the manufacturer.

Enterprise vs Long Haul on 100G

March 5, 2009

Analysis of:GigOptix Announces EA Modulator Driver for use in 100Gb/s Ethernet Applications | www.tmcnet.com

1.  Economics is going to be the big driver in the supercomputer/enterprise space for 100GbE. 2.  In the carrier sector, spectral efficiency associated with 100G will play a large role. 3.  Obviously, the hope is that there will be a substantial amount of growth in both markets.

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