Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

FairPoint’s Goal Appears to be Reasonable

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint expects normal New England operations by June | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  It is almost amusing what is reported in one of the related articles in the Kennebec Journal Morning Sentinel.  2.  A spokesman for the Maine PUC states: “My impression is that this is the highest level of calls involving a single utility that our consumer assistance division has seen.” 3.  While it is certainly not funny to the subscribers, none of its other utilities have ever engaged in such a massive transition effort -- involving three states.

In the Tank For the MSOs?

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Cable Best for Next-Gen Access, Arthur D. Little Says | www.xchangemag.com

1.  Even part of the title, “The Moment of Truth” seems to suggest more of a PR piece. 2.  According to the report, “Fixed operators, especially alternative operators, should consider the acquisition of cable infrastructure, if feasible, as opposed to deploying a fiber access network.” 3.  If coaxial is such a great investment, why are the MSOs giving so much attention to fiber to the home?

Broadband Stimulus Package Cannot Control Risk

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Risk factor could affect broadband stimulus payouts | news.cnet.com

1.  Regardless of one’s views on federal government intervention in telecom, the vast majority of the people in the sector are looking forward to the industry taking advantage of the stimulus package. 2.  However, the idea that abuse, mismanagement, and waste can be substantially eliminated is a pipe dream. 3.  In addition, very few government entities have a good track record of “distribut[ing...funds effectively and fairly, and...hold[ing] grantees accountable."

Corporate Use of WiMAX May Turn Out to be the All-Important Niche Application

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Why WiMax should be on the CIO's radar | www.infoworld.com

1.  It would be nothing short of astonishing if Clearwire even comes close to reaching its “goal of establishing WiMax service in 80 metro areas by 2010.” 2.  Many analysts view the enterprise space as the potentially dominant market sector for WiMAX. 3.  As the source article points out, there may be plenty of opportunities that do not require “ubiquitous coverage.”

On Paper, Huawei Could Have the Upper Hand in Getting Clearwire’s Business

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Huawei Tries to Crack U.S. Market | online.wsj.com

1.  Cost is by far the biggest reason why Clearwire is considering Huawei. 2.  While customarily the supplier will discount equipment by as much as 30 percent, it would not be surprising if the markdown was significantly higher in this case. 3.  At this time, establishing a beachhead in the US is of the utmost importance, and selling well below cost seems not out of the question.

Necessity Trumps Attitude on Mobile Data Services

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Mobile data attitudes in the U.S. 'positive and improving' | www.fiercemobilecontent.com

1.  Much of “the stationary media majority” will be obliged to move more towards using mobile data services. 2.  It does not matter much to what extent they “have positive and improving attitudes about their mobile communications devices.” 3.  With almost 40 percent of the subscribers actively engaged, or on the brink of doing so, with such services, it becomes a matter of practicality that others will have to do likewise.

Sprint’s Focus on Wholesale Market is a Good Game Plan

March 27, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint Looks to Power Gadgets Beyond Cellphones | online.wsj.com

1.  It is a plus that in the wholesale business, “Sprint's involvement is largely hidden from the public.” 2.  Putting the emphasis on network utilization rather than on the brand is what is really important now. 3.  Sprint may never be able to fully rehabilitate its brand.

A Case of Buyer Beware

March 27, 2009

Analysis of:Thinking the unthinkable: What if your phone company dies? | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  First of all, according to the Las Cruces Sun-News, “’The extended deadline and the help of state regulators to remind customers of the disconnect [of SkyWi] seems to have been beneficial.’” 2.  The author of the source article acknowledges as reported in the Sun-News, “[fewer] than 200 Internet subscribers may have felt the impact of Qwest's disconnect.” 3.  Perhaps when it comes to safety and public health, government agencies and hospitals should think a while before putting all of their telecommunications services on a company called “SkyWi.”

New Wholesale Level 3?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Level 3 claims largest capacity win | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  In April 2008, we wrote an article entitled, “Is There Still a Chance that Level 3’s Wholesale Business Could Be the Answer? 2.  We asked the question, “Is it possible that this [wholesale] business just took longer to take hold than what Level 3 planned?” 3.  “Significant changes in the marketplace” would be necessary -- and this deal with Telefonica could be a sign of that starting to happen.

Oh, So Now Is It Perfectly Clear about Sprint and Clearwire?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint, Clearwire Clarify WiMAX Plans | www.xchangemag.com

1.  After excusing the bad pun, please bring your attention to the craziness that is going on in the public relations departments of both wireless companies. 2.  Do they really believe that their explanation is convincing? 3.  If anything, it creates further doubt about Sprint’s commitment to WiMAX.

Wireless Backhaul – A Chance for Ethernet over Copper to Really Shine in US Market?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless beefing up backhaul with carrier Ethernet | telephonyonline.com

1.  Verizon Wireless’ move to LTE will increase its backhaul capacity demands immensely. 2.  With the apparent go-ahead on carrier Ethernet as a solution, it opens up the door to Ethernet over Copper (EoC) 3.  “Only 10% of the cell sites in the US are connected by fiber today,” according to the source article.

LTE Handsets Could Come Sooner Than Some Predictions

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks | www.unstrung.com

1.  While LTE handsets will not be available overnight, many analysts are looking at it in the context of 3G development. 2.  Verizon Wireless will be aggressively deploying its new wireless network regardless of the timing of handset availability. 3.  There was really no “build it and they will come philosophy” by any service provider with 3G in Europe or in the US.

Cisco’s IPoDWDM is Not the Solution for Verizon

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:The Case Against IPoDWDM | www.lightreading.com

1.  The shortcomings of Cisco Systems’ “method of IP-over-DWDM” have been known for a long time. 2.  Having “transponders get integrated into the router, isn't the answer.” 3.  We have written extensively about the problems that Sprint has experienced with this solution.

Sprint Nextel Sticking Almost Exclusively with the Generic “4G” Term

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint to Extend “4G” in Clearwire Markets | www.unstrung.com

1.  Since the deal with Clearwire was completed, Sprint has issued two press releases that focus on the fourth generation of wireless technology. 2.  Together, it uses the term, “4G”, over 60 times, while, “WiMAX”, is only mentioned three times. 3.  Instead of “Xohm WiMAX,” its new brand name is apparently “Sprint 4G” now.

Strike at AT&T Now Could be Detrimental to Critically Needed CAPEX

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Ovum: Possible CWA strike won't affect AT&T capex | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  The assumptions and conclusions in the source article are nonsensical.   2.  Any strike of a month or more at AT&T at this time would be devastating to its wireless build-outs. 3.  It could easily hamper its ability to improve its wireless network in a hurry.

Greater Long-Haul Optical Capacity Required for LTE

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Rethinks Long Haul | www.lightreading.com

1.  Yes, there will be a long-haul “bandwidth surge created by FiOS.” 2.  But additional capacity will be needed for LTE deployments as well. 3.  There does not appear to be too much “rethink[ing]” of Verizon’s long-haul network.

Hyperventilation About Not Much on FairPoint

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint says it's ready to repay debt | www.nashuatelegraph.com

1.  Over a week ago, we said there was no reason to be pessimistic about FairPoint’s future. 2.  The impressive recurring revenue that an ILEC generates just had to be facilitated. 3.  There is undoubtedly disappointment at the PUC, by the consumer advocates, and in the press over the good news.

Telecom Carriers Optimistic on Energy Monitoring Opportunity

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Telecoms Eyeing Home Energy Management: A Viable Combination? | seekingalpha.com

1.  The original Bell Atlantic tried to get into the energy management business back in the 1980s. 2.  The RBOC was almost successful in its endeavor.   3.  The same concept will probably work much better today.

More Than Subtleties Being Missed in Cable TV vs Telco Outlook

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Analysts: Telco video to outpace cable telephony in 2009 | telephonyonline.com

1.     Let’s say it is true that “[t]elco video growth should outpace cable telephony growth this year for the first time ever.” 2.     That would not be the whole story. 3.     It is not an apples-to apples-comparison.

Competition for Telecom Services Has Increased Immensely in Last 25 Years

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Ma Bell’s Breakup: 25 Years Later, Everything Old Is New Again | www.xchangemag.com

1.     The notion that a “three-headed form” of Ma Bell has come back is at least somewhat of an exaggeration. 2.     The amount of “post-divestiture competition” is understated in the piece. 3.     The so-called “new competitive hope” is either pretty much here today or is close to becoming a reality.

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