Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

A Case of Buyer Beware

March 27, 2009

Analysis of:Thinking the unthinkable: What if your phone company dies? | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  First of all, according to the Las Cruces Sun-News, “’The extended deadline and the help of state regulators to remind customers of the disconnect [of SkyWi] seems to have been beneficial.’” 2.  The author of the source article acknowledges as reported in the Sun-News, “[fewer] than 200 Internet subscribers may have felt the impact of Qwest's disconnect.” 3.  Perhaps when it comes to safety and public health, government agencies and hospitals should think a while before putting all of their telecommunications services on a company called “SkyWi.”

New Wholesale Level 3?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Level 3 claims largest capacity win | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  In April 2008, we wrote an article entitled, “Is There Still a Chance that Level 3’s Wholesale Business Could Be the Answer? 2.  We asked the question, “Is it possible that this [wholesale] business just took longer to take hold than what Level 3 planned?” 3.  “Significant changes in the marketplace” would be necessary -- and this deal with Telefonica could be a sign of that starting to happen.

Oh, So Now Is It Perfectly Clear about Sprint and Clearwire?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint, Clearwire Clarify WiMAX Plans | www.xchangemag.com

1.  After excusing the bad pun, please bring your attention to the craziness that is going on in the public relations departments of both wireless companies. 2.  Do they really believe that their explanation is convincing? 3.  If anything, it creates further doubt about Sprint’s commitment to WiMAX.

Wireless Backhaul – A Chance for Ethernet over Copper to Really Shine in US Market?

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless beefing up backhaul with carrier Ethernet | telephonyonline.com

1.  Verizon Wireless’ move to LTE will increase its backhaul capacity demands immensely. 2.  With the apparent go-ahead on carrier Ethernet as a solution, it opens up the door to Ethernet over Copper (EoC) 3.  “Only 10% of the cell sites in the US are connected by fiber today,” according to the source article.

LTE Handsets Could Come Sooner Than Some Predictions

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks | www.unstrung.com

1.  While LTE handsets will not be available overnight, many analysts are looking at it in the context of 3G development. 2.  Verizon Wireless will be aggressively deploying its new wireless network regardless of the timing of handset availability. 3.  There was really no “build it and they will come philosophy” by any service provider with 3G in Europe or in the US.

Cisco’s IPoDWDM is Not the Solution for Verizon

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:The Case Against IPoDWDM | www.lightreading.com

1.  The shortcomings of Cisco Systems’ “method of IP-over-DWDM” have been known for a long time. 2.  Having “transponders get integrated into the router, isn't the answer.” 3.  We have written extensively about the problems that Sprint has experienced with this solution.

Sprint Nextel Sticking Almost Exclusively with the Generic “4G” Term

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint to Extend “4G” in Clearwire Markets | www.unstrung.com

1.  Since the deal with Clearwire was completed, Sprint has issued two press releases that focus on the fourth generation of wireless technology. 2.  Together, it uses the term, “4G”, over 60 times, while, “WiMAX”, is only mentioned three times. 3.  Instead of “Xohm WiMAX,” its new brand name is apparently “Sprint 4G” now.

Strike at AT&T Now Could be Detrimental to Critically Needed CAPEX

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Ovum: Possible CWA strike won't affect AT&T capex | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  The assumptions and conclusions in the source article are nonsensical.   2.  Any strike of a month or more at AT&T at this time would be devastating to its wireless build-outs. 3.  It could easily hamper its ability to improve its wireless network in a hurry.

Greater Long-Haul Optical Capacity Required for LTE

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Rethinks Long Haul | www.lightreading.com

1.  Yes, there will be a long-haul “bandwidth surge created by FiOS.” 2.  But additional capacity will be needed for LTE deployments as well. 3.  There does not appear to be too much “rethink[ing]” of Verizon’s long-haul network.

Hyperventilation About Not Much on FairPoint

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint says it's ready to repay debt | www.nashuatelegraph.com

1.  Over a week ago, we said there was no reason to be pessimistic about FairPoint’s future. 2.  The impressive recurring revenue that an ILEC generates just had to be facilitated. 3.  There is undoubtedly disappointment at the PUC, by the consumer advocates, and in the press over the good news.

Telecom Carriers Optimistic on Energy Monitoring Opportunity

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Telecoms Eyeing Home Energy Management: A Viable Combination? | seekingalpha.com

1.  The original Bell Atlantic tried to get into the energy management business back in the 1980s. 2.  The RBOC was almost successful in its endeavor.   3.  The same concept will probably work much better today.

More Than Subtleties Being Missed in Cable TV vs Telco Outlook

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Analysts: Telco video to outpace cable telephony in 2009 | telephonyonline.com

1.     Let’s say it is true that “[t]elco video growth should outpace cable telephony growth this year for the first time ever.” 2.     That would not be the whole story. 3.     It is not an apples-to apples-comparison.

Competition for Telecom Services Has Increased Immensely in Last 25 Years

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Ma Bell’s Breakup: 25 Years Later, Everything Old Is New Again | www.xchangemag.com

1.     The notion that a “three-headed form” of Ma Bell has come back is at least somewhat of an exaggeration. 2.     The amount of “post-divestiture competition” is understated in the piece. 3.     The so-called “new competitive hope” is either pretty much here today or is close to becoming a reality.

Poll on Wireless Users Cannot be Taken Seriously

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:60 Million Consumers Contemplate Ditching Wireless | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.     Extrapolating these finding out to 60 million people is a joke. 2.     Consumers that just owned a cell phone and not a landline were not reached, according to PC Magazine. 3.     Putting aside the lopsided nature of the calling pool, anything can be demonstrated with a poll based on the questions that are asked.

Qwest Keeps On Devolving

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Qwest’s Thornton – Minutes Trading Desk ‘In Full Swing’ | www.von.com

1.  What’s next – bringing back the telegraph on a limited basis for high-income people to commemorate the past? 2.  It seems like a major drop in corporate expectations -- for what was a once a major force in the telecom industry -- to get involved with voice trading in the US. 3.  One may even take it a step further in that it smacks of extreme desperation.

Hitachi Telecom and Salira Merger to Better Target MSOs

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Hitachi Communication Technologies America, Inc. Established to Strengthen Hitachi's Communications Service Provider Business in the Americas | finance.yahoo.com

1.  Hitachi tried to get significant business in the US fiber to the premises telco market. 2.  The RBOCs have not been too receptive to it and the independents in general appear to be looking more at other competitors. 3.  The MSO space now provides the most upside potential for the vendor.

Capping Will Always be an Issue with Verizon FiOS

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:If Everyone Had Verizon FiOS for Broadband, Capping Would Not Be an Issue | seekingalpha.com

1.     As a couple of comment posts point out, the source article is rather “superficial” in its analysis. 2.     If the title of the piece is true, then why is Verizon pushing against net neutrality as much as any company? 3.     The idea that the coax networks “were not built to truly handle video” is silly.

Ciena Seems to be Overhanging Market with CoreDirector Changes

March 19, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena Preps 'CoreDirector 2' | www.lightreading.com

1.     With ‘”no time set for a launch,’” Ciena is behaving like other telecom vendors that have dominated markets. 2.     It is putting out a message to help prevent other suppliers from potentially making inroads with their systems. 3.     That being it is only a matter of time before Ciena makes improvements – just sit tight.

Myth of Motorola Near Alcatel-Lucent on GPON Continues

March 19, 2009

Analysis of:Motorola Catching Up to Alcatel-Lucent In GPON Market | ipcommunications.tmcnet.com

1.     There are pitfalls for market research firms concentrating on only top-down analyses. 2.     Skewed results are often the case with information based almost totally on supplier feedback. 3.     There is the trap of getting only snapshots in time.

Sprint’s Problems Having Effect on CEO’s Image

March 19, 2009

Analysis of:For Sprint CEO, No More Sitting on a Cold, Hard Slab | blogs.wsj.com

1.     At the very least, Dan Hesse’s commercials started to have diminishing returns. 2.     At some point, a company has to start worrying about the long-term impact on a CEO’s reputation. 3.     It was not as much about people “get[ting] tired of seeing that guy.”

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