Mr. Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Mr. Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Private Equity Firms’ Desire for Verizon Wireless Assets Inherently Risky

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Blackstone, KKR Said to Make Bids for Verizon Assets | www.bloomberg.com

1.  The recent track record for private equity firms purchasing prominent telecom companies has been less than stellar – to say the least. 2.  The lack of due diligence as well as the bad luck of poor timing have made investments in this sector by equity companies quite dicey 3.  The Verizon Wireless assets appear to have their own potential pitfalls.

Cisco Appears to be Expanding Market for its Servers

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Cisco: Moving into Content Delivery? | seekingalpha.com

1.  In a better market, there would probably have been at least a few more new CDN entrants by now. 2.  As it did with Cogent Communications several years ago, Cisco Systems would have financed the purchase of equipment for the service provider. 3.  It seems unlikely that Cisco would stay in the CDN space indefinitely.

Verizon’s 3G/4G Captive Strategy

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Roger Gurnani, Senior VP of Product Development, Verizon Wireless | www.unstrung.com

1.  There was a particularly big reason why wireless carriers in the US were in the past resistant to moving to 3G. 2.  In forcing the subscribers to change handsets, it opened the door to competitors. 3.  In offering dual mode devices and modules in advance of the arrival of an LTE network, Verizon Wireless will avoid this problem.

True Innovation at Embarq Will Not Happen Until Merger Completed

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Embarq CTO charts innovation roadmap | telephonyonline.com

1.  One may be surprised to learn that “Embarq is widely recognized as one of the most innovative incumbent wireline telcos in recent years." 2.  That it is “a ‘shining light’” in the industry....” 3.  While customer forums naturally engage in hyperbole, Embarq’s so-called innovation was apparently put in the best light – from a public relations standpoint -- before the marriage with CenturyTel is finished.

Sprint Evidently Taking Advantage of Current and Past Enterprise Connections

April 9, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint, GE Healthcare will provide wireless system for Texas hospitals | www.bizjournals.com

1.  Sprint’s relationship with General Electric started over 20 years ago. 2.  US Sprint at the time was awarded a contract by GE for various landline services. 3.  Sprint’s present CFO has some useful past associations himself.

A Regional Wireless Approach by Cox Just Might Work

April 9, 2009

Analysis of:Cox Plans to Launch a Cellular Network | online.wsj.com

1.  Cox Communications has its cable concentration in the South and Southwest. 2.  In focusing its wireless build-out in those areas of the country, it just may be able to make it in the new business. 3.  The worse case scenario would probably just be feeling compelled to sell off the wireless operation.

Comparing WiMAX to Betamax is Not Far Off

April 9, 2009

Analysis of:Report: Hesse intervened in Nokia-WiMAX fight | www.fiercewireless.com

1.  One could guess that the Nokia executive could have chosen 8-track cartridges, audiocassettes, or laserdiscs. 2.  The only problem with the VHS analogy is that DVDs have been replacing that technology. 3.  LTE networks should remain in place at least several decades longer.

Cisco and Verizon Wireless’ Backhaul – Not News

April 7, 2009

Analysis of:VZW Ethernet backhaul built by Cisco | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  Cisco Systems cannot resist manufacturing news around the time of a big telecom show. 2.  Despite not really being a player in the public wireless sector, it strives to take advantage of any technology receiving a lot of attention. 3.  However, Verizon Wireless is not doing anything different than it has been planning for a while with Cisco’s routers.

Nokia Systems Looking to Buy Major Incumbent Position in US

April 7, 2009

Analysis of:Nokia Siemens Makes Offer for Parts of Nortel | online.wsj.com

1.  Ericsson has been making significant penetration in both the US public wireline and wireless markets with its equipment. 2.  Nokia Siemens Networks has been far less successful in either sector. 3.  In purchasing a large installed base of gear from Nortel, it would become a major player in the States overnight.

Considerations for FTTX go Well Beyond Basics

April 7, 2009

Analysis of:FTTx: Three considerations for deployment planning | searchtelecom.techtarget.com

1.  The consultant does a good job of talking about the technological fundamentals of how far to take fiber into the network.  2.  However, “[that] the answer is largely determined by [those] three specific factors [in the article]” – is an explanation that would be better suited for several years ago. 3.  While there may have been constraints on the size of the original piece, there has to be at least a mention of other critical aspects.

PUCs Try to Create Smoking Gun Against FairPoint

April 6, 2009

Analysis of:Fairpoint management may need to go, auditors suggest | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  Around the same time that there is the warning of possible management firings, a report comes out that appears to be a hatchet job on FairPoint Communications. 2.  The report could not get past the beginning of page two to unfairly bring up Hawaii. 3.  At least there was the obvious acknowledgement that “the problems encountered so far have not reached the scale of those seen in the Hawaiian Telcom.”

A European Supplier Would be Most Likely to Buy Starent

April 6, 2009

Analysis of:Starent Networks Introduces Service Convergence Platform Bridging Legacy Mobile and Next Generation All-IP Multimedia Networks | www.foxbusiness.com

1.  Verizon Wireless appears to be comfortable dealing with Starent as an individual company. 2.  Given Ericsson’s present position as the leading vendor to the carrier for LTE, it makes sense that it would be the supplier most plausible to purchase Starent. 3.  There is a good possibility that Nokia Siemens would be the next likely candidate.

Qwest Finally Moving Towards its Destiny?

April 6, 2009

Analysis of:Qwest could become RLEC consolidator, analysts say | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  Almost a year ago, we pointed out that “Qwest might as well be considered an independent telco.” 2.  Around that time, industry analysts were encouraging Qwest to combine with a big RLEC because it would be “tremendously accretive.” 3.  It would be practically hopeless for the RBOC to even begin competing on the same level as AT&T or Verizon.

Still No Assurance about Certain MSOs and Wireless

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:McCaw: WiMax Key to Cable's 'Next Step' | www.lightreading.com

1.  The Suddenlink CEO states, "We're not certain how important the wireless product is going to be for us.” 2.  The fact of the matter is that its bigger competitors share the same sentiment. 3.  Historically speaking, it is hard to have a high level of confidence when it comes to wireless plans and cable TV companies.

Some Analysts are Awakening

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:Telcos are shrinking, study says | telephonyonline.com

1.  We have been saying for some time that the RBOCs are going to become much smaller entities not just from “losing wireline voice customers,” but from ultimately selling off substantial amounts of landline assets. 2.  This second important reason appears to be ignored by the analyst in the source article. 3.  In particular, we have talked about a much smaller Verizon company, with the potential for significantly higher margins.

Unnecessary for Verizon to Overhype LTE

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:CTIA 2009: Verizon LTE Goin' Steady | www.unstrung.com

1.  Even if Verizon Wireless ha[d] “essentially blown its wad in Barcelona announcing the vendors for the new proto-4G network,” it could have tried to make news in a more conventional manner. 2.  The service provider wants to avoid the press concluding that an idea “is not too dissimilar to the concept that Clearwire...has also talked about with WiMax.” 3.  The introduction of a new and ambiguous metric may not be helpful in the future.

Commission’s Threat of FairPoint Management’s Removal is Boneheaded

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:State regulators want FairPoint on short leash | www.burlingtonfreepress.com

1.  At the end of the day, the people working at public service commissions are politicians. 2.  They will milk the negative image of what has been essentially a major success story for all its worth. 3.  However, when state regulators cross the line and can potentially remove the executives of a corporation, it is unconstitutional – not to mention the US free market system is further at risk.

Qwest’s Long-Haul Customer Base is Big Prize

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:Qwest Seeks To Sell Piece Of Its Network | online.wsj.com

1.  If an RBOC is a source of the article, it could be another one of those trial balloons. 2.  The receptiveness by the new federal regulatory community to competitors buying a long-haul network, especially AT&T and Verizon, is somewhat unknown. 3.  However, the FCC and the Congress may have a problem with another RBOC buying the network – only to get the subscriber base – and then shut it down.

Starent Appears to be Fine at Verizon Wireless

April 5, 2009

Analysis of:Alcatel-Lucent Win a Problem for Starent? | 4g-wirelessevolution.tmcnet.com

1.  There seems to be no evidence of an actual contract between Alcatel-Lucent and Verizon Wireless for packet core technology. 2.  In fact, apparently, Verizon has so far not shown any inclination to move away from Starent. 3.  The idea that there would be an advantage that Alcatel-Lucent would “be applying networking lessons it has learned in the wired network triple-play business” – in order to provide packet core technology – is a big stretch.

Opnext Leadership – Window Dressing to Plain Execution?

April 1, 2009

Analysis of:Opnext to Showcase Its High Speed Technology Leadership at OFC/NFOEC 2009 | www.forbes.com

1.  The stepping down of Opnext CEO, Harry Bosco, could be an indication of the company more or less settling down in terms of aggressively looking for new business opportunities.   2.  It has a lot on its plate, particularly with its focus on high-end optics. 3.  There will not be as much of a need for wheeling and dealing nor for slaps on the back – it now comes down to implementation.

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