Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

When it Comes to Governmental Expenditures, There is No Meter

May 19, 2009

Analysis of:Transition to Networx keeps slow pace | washingtontechnology.com

1.  There were also delays with FTS2001. 2.  It is the nature of government institutions to advance slowly (perhaps one of their saving graces as well). 3.  Unless there are real pressures to move forward, agencies do not have enough of an incentive to go more quickly.

Verizon Shareholders’ Majority Stock Ownership of Frontier Could Make Difference

May 18, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Sells Phone Lines in 14 States to Frontier | online.wsj.com

1.  Verizon Communication stockholders will own about 68% of Frontier Communications as a result of the recent transaction. 2.  This result will put the RBOC in more direct contact with the cutover process. 3.  That should help avoid some of the issues that occurred at FairPoint Communications.

Good Chance that Ericsson Will be Chosen as Main LTE Vendor to AT&T

May 11, 2009

Analysis of:Rumor Mill: Did AT&T pick Ericsson, Alca-Lu, Huawei for LTE trial? | www.fiercewireless.com

1.  Ericsson’s overall relationship with AT&T is even more solid than it has been at Verizon. 2.  The supplier provides GPON and other gear to AT&T. 3.  Ericsson’s expected leadership position in working with Verizon Wireless gives it a high probability of winning at AT&T as well.

AT&T Wireless’ Overall “Game-Changing” Strategy?

May 11, 2009

Analysis of:AT&T: Gaming-changing iPhone only a start | www.cedmagazine.com

1.  AT&T Wireless may be looking to focus more of its marketing efforts at higher income subscribers. 2.  The carrier will seek to piggyback on Apple’s iPhone being “such a game changer.” 3.  The customers at the upper end, especially those who use the iPhone, will be more inclined to be interested in “what...[other wireless] device[s] can do.”

This Time FairPoint Gets a Failing Grade

May 7, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint execs get bonuses, revenue dips | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  Even though many of the problems may not have directly linked to FairPoint Communications, the executives should not be taking bonuses when a high number of subscribers are receiving inadequate service. 2.  Any additional compensation related to the acquisition should have been postponed until the network was back to normal. 3.  The fact that the CEO made more in 2007 does not at all ameliorate the situation.

FairPoint Gains Some Measure of Reprieve

May 6, 2009

Analysis of:In NH, FairPoint transition blame spread to PUC, contractors | www.fiercetelecom.com

1.  The PUCs should take the bulk of the blame for FairPoint’s problems. 2.  However, it should not be “for signing off on the acquisition in the first place.” 3.  While probably a little too small, FairPoint appeared to have a solid track record as an ILEC.

Alcatel-Lucent Could Easily Become a Non-Factor in US Soon

May 6, 2009

Analysis of:Alcatel-Lucent Loss Widens on Weaker Phone Demand | www.bloomberg.com

1.  Ericsson and Nokia-Siemens will probably become the dominant vendors in the US public equipment market. 2.  Other players including Adtran, Ciena, Fujitsu, and Tellabs will continue to fill in important gaps. 3.  It is just a matter of time before Huawei becomes a major player in the States.

Google and Apple Are Being Penalized for High-Level Achievement

May 6, 2009

Analysis of:Google, Apple Scrutinized by the FTC | online.wsj.com

1.  The federal government seeking to take over even more sectors of the US economy is not enough. 2.  It also apparently gets to decide the proper success levels of major corporations. 3.  At least for Google’s main business, any antitrust case is absurd because the end user essentially pays nothing.

Texas Wants to Preempt Federal Government Mapping Mandates in State

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:Texas issues broadband stimulus RFI | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  It is well understood that the FCC will become the mastermind of the national broadband effort. 2.  The state government of Texas does not want lose its power to oversee telecom networks. 3.  Look for other states to follow suit.

Finally, A Balanced News Piece on Fairpoint

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint looks to turn the corner | www.unionleader.com

1.  It is about time that there is a press article that gives more of FairPoint Communications’ perspective. 2.  One does get at least somewhat of a sense of the colossal job being pulled off. 3.  As the article points out, FairPoint is eliminating 90% of the computing systems used by Verizon.

Ericsson’s Potential Loss Leader with Sprint a Smart Move

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint Is in Talks to Outsource Its Network | online.wsj.com

1.  Even if one assumes “Ericsson will [not] make money in the initial years of the deal,” it still gets the supplier in the door of a major US wireless carrier. 2.  Although Sprint Nextel would continue to be responsible for capital investments,” there is going to be a hesitancy not to alienate the company that is in effect in charge of operations for the network. 3.  With expectations that Sprint will eventually move to LTE, Ericsson would be in an excellent position to get a huge chunk of sales.

Verizon’s Childish Rhetoric Only Diminishes FTTH Impact

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Calls Cablevision's 101Mbps 'A Parlor Trick' | www.dslreports.com

1.  Verizon would be better off taking the high road in comparing fiber to coaxial. 2.  The RBOC is only sounding defensive with this kind of post. 3.  A backhanded compliment would go a whole lot further in Verizon effectively getting its message out.

Another Win for iPCS is Also Probably a Gain for Sprint

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:iPCS adds new twist to Sprint-affiliate battles | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  Back in the summer of 2008, we wrote an article entitled: “Court’s Refusal to Dismiss iPCS Legal Action Should be Music to Sprint’s Ears” 2.  We said, “This suit by iPCS just adds...another fly in the ointment – helping Sprint -- a company that seems to be looking for a graceful way out of its commitment to WiMAX.” 3.  As news articles have pointed out, Sprint Nextel has other options besides a buyout in its fight with iPCS.

Hard to See Attraction of T-Mobile, Sprint Combination

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint, T-Mobile Heading for Imminent Tie-Up? | www.xchangemag.com

1.  Even the “global economic recession” does not seem to be a good enough reason for Sprint-Nextel and T-Mobile USA to come together. 2.  They would only immensely increase their “struggles” in doing so. 3.  Surely and superficially, “[a] merger may become an inevitable next step” – but possibly only on paper.

Sycamore Getting Further Down to Having Only “Bankers” on Payroll

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:Sycamore Cuts 30% | www.lightreading.com

1.  The joke about Sycamore Networks essentially being a bank has been told for years. 2.  Except it has never been funny to its shareholders. 3.  As one of the comments to the source article says, the company is “basically bleeding off their money.”

Infinera Needs to Always be Straight with Announcements

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:Viking Victory for Infinera | www.lightreading.com

1.  Small vendors, in particular, cannot afford to have their credibility in question. 2.  It is possible that TeliaSonera AB received some incentives for bending over backwards so much on its press release. 3.  At least according to the Light Reading piece, Infinera’s six “Tier 1” customers are now referred to as “national.”

Why is There an Assumption that There Will Continue to be a Wireless Duopoly?

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:The Mobile Duopoly | www.unstrung.com

1.  Which company “can crack the hegemony of AT&T...and Verizon Wireless as the top two wireless carriers in the U.S?” 2.  The answer is Verizon Wireless. 3.  The market dynamics in wireless are vastly different than in the enterprise space in which a duopoly between AT&T and Verizon is almost ensured.

Ciena Quietly Acknowledges World Wide Packets Acquisition Mistake

April 29, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena Anticipates Impairment Charge in Fiscal Second Quarter | finance.yahoo.com

1.  Ciena is apparently writing off its entire debt as a result of the World Wide Packets pickup. 2.  Last summer, we started to question AT&T’s actual assurance that it was going to buy the WWP solution. 3.  The main reason for Ciena purchasing WWP was supposedly that the service provider was pushing for the acquisition.

Imperative that Tellabs Gets New Products

April 29, 2009

Analysis of:Tellabs CEO on capex growth: I’ll believe it when I see it | blog.telephonyonline.com

1.  If Tellabs is really serious about getting growth numbers that are better than predicted, it is either going to need to develop new solutions and/or make acquisitions. 2.  As we have stated in the past, we believe the supplier is working on a broadband cross-connect. 3.  In any event, it is refreshing for a supplier these days to give such a high level of detail on its visibility.

Futility of AT&T Trying to Get Its Opponents to Regard It Positively

April 28, 2009

Analysis of:AT&T Doesn’t Want to Follow You (Except When It Does) | bits.blogs.nytimes.com

1.  There is no benefit to AT&T for even seeming to make unilateral compromises. 2.  The visceral hatred of corporations by its adversaries does not allow for a minuscule amount of admiration. 3.  They were immediately looking to play gotcha on these privacy matters.

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