Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Hardball 9/1/09: Two Faces of Infinera

September 1, 2009

Analysis of:Infinera's Ex-Man | www.lightreading.com

We wrote back in April that "Infinera’s credibility is at its most threatened state since starting up...."  In July, its CEO stepped down. Infinera is almost like two companies.

Fiber to the Business at Time Warner Cable

August 31, 2009

Analysis of:TWC Boots Up 'TV Everywhere' Trial | www.lightreading.com

For many commercial builds of a sizable nature, it appears that Time Warner Cable will take fiber to the premises.  It could be anything from delivery of fiber to a library as part of a government contract or to the corporate headquarters of a fairly large retailer, which could get multiple fibers.   The MSO will usually terminate fiber on its own hardware in the business’ equipment room, including going up to offices on higher floors. 

Commodity-like Market for ROADMs

August 31, 2009

Analysis of:Infinera Helps Bring Broadband to Grant County Residents | fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com

In general, with a ROADM from any supplier, such as Infinera, each has the same underlying fabric and they all offer the same functionality. The situation is reminiscent of the old SONET ADMs, such as for OC-48 and OC-192, in which ultimately there was little that differentiated one system from another. As a result, prices for ROADMs become the overriding factor in terms of any kind of differentiation.

More Virtual Vertical Integration Needed for 100G

August 29, 2009

Analysis of:Fujitsu, Furukawa Team on 40/100G | www.lightreading.com

The amount of communication from the service providers down to the chip providers needs to go up substantially in the 100G space.  Whether the various “departments” are flying under the same corporate flag in terms of production, is irrelevant.  Any companies practicing any kind of work in total isolation will need to be persuaded otherwise as much as possible.

High Stakes for RLECs Succeeding with Hosted PBX

August 29, 2009

Analysis of:Douglas Telecom Announces a Redundant Model of Business Telephone Service | ip-pbx.tmcnet.com

The independent telcos, such as Windstream and Frontier, view hosted PBX and VoIP as having the most lucrative entry potential into the business market.   In serving so many rural and small-town areas, their percentage of revenue from consumers has been noticeably high.  Although the technology can be created pretty easily, service providers generally do not want to sell their own proprietary solutions themselves because they will get crushed in the development costs.

Impact of Mesh Architectures on 4G Wireless Backhaul

August 20, 2009

Analysis of:Clearwire adds Huawei to WiMax vendor mix | telephonyonline.com

The source article states that, “DragonWave and Motorola supply “Clearwire’s microwave backhaul transport.” When 4G comes along, the traditional hub and spoke model in which everything gets backhauled to a mobile telephone switching office is expected to somewhat change because a lot of the traffic will go between the cell sites themselves within a mesh network without having to be forced to go back to the hub office.

Utilities Operating Muni Telecom Networks Have Better Shot at Success

August 12, 2009

Analysis of:Making the most of Muni broadband | telephonyonline.com

There have been impressive opportunities for optical network building in cities such as Chattanooga, TN; Lafayette, LA; and Burlington, Vermont.  They are all run by municipal utilities.  It makes a shorter walk for the politicians with a utility in the picture.

Cable TV Companies Could be Second Biggest Beneficiaries of Stimulus

August 3, 2009

Analysis of:Accessing Obama's Broadband Billions | www.lightreading.com

It appears that the small independent telcos will receive the biggest amount of the broadband stimulus funds. These carriers have dominated the rural telephone lines for over a century and there will be a high comfort level at the government agencies in dealing with them.   After this market sector, we expect the cable TV operators (excluding the big MSOs) to be the next biggest service provider segment to receive money.

Sprint Needs as Many New Brands as It Can Get

August 3, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint's Hesse talks about webOS, Ericsson, Virgin Mobile and more | www.fiercewireless.com

It is a smart move on the part of Sprint to keep the Virgin Mobile brand, at least for a while.  Although its marketing costs will increase in supporting another brand, Sprint needs to absorb as much goodwill from the Virgin name as possible.  Since late 2006, we have been pointing out how much better Virgin Mobile has fared in terms of customer perception than Sprint, despite the two sharing the same network and the same support personnel.

Ericsson’s Apparent Acquisition of Nortel Assets Part of Worldwide OPEX Trend

August 3, 2009

Analysis of:Why is RIM trying to block the Ericsson-Nortel deal? | www.fiercewireless.com

The Tier 1 carriers across the globe are increasingly looking for fewer vendors.  In addition, with those the carriers have selected, they want them to do multiple things.  Undoubtedly, Verizon Wireless made it clear to Ericsson that it would really benefit in terms of future sales in going after Nortel’s wireless business.

Alcatel-Lucent Still Needs to Take Bolder Steps

August 1, 2009

Analysis of:Alcatel-Lucent's Baby Steps | online.wsj.com

The source article is correct in stating that, “The headline figures [for Alcatel-Lucent] are certainly encouraging.”    However, the supplier still has a lot to do in trimming its businesses down.    Other developments related to the company are notable as well.

Small Window of Opportunity Likely for Metro 40G

July 30, 2009

Analysis of:GigOptix Announces Complete Family of Transimpedance Amplifier (TIA) Solutions for All Major 10G, 40G and 100G Rreceiver Applications | embeddedsystemnews.com

While by far the most common transport unit in the metro is 10G, probably the largest application for metro 40G will be in connecting routers together that have 40G interfaces.  There are also specific cases in which the carrier will be absolutely out of spectrum on the fiber, in which it is impossible to add any more 10G wavelengths.  Rather than lighting up another fiber, the service provider can begin to use 40G wavelengths to get better density.  

Ciena Will Maintain Leadership Position with Next-Generation CoreDirector

July 28, 2009

Analysis of:MAGPI Deploys Ciena on Networking Links for Federal Research Labs | www.tmcnet.com

1. Ciena’s latest version of its CoreDirector is a totally different box than the original with a matrix that is completely redefined. 2.   The last iteration has 40G and 100G capabilities. 3.  The original product cannot be upgraded to those speeds.

Verizon Bending Over Backwards to Get Fiber to NYC Apartments

July 26, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Boosts FiOS Speeds, Adds Netbook Promo | www.pcmag.com

1.    In general, Verizon’s executives have been somewhat surprised by the number of demands by landlords in New York City when the service provider offers FiOS to them.2.    Clearly, the building owners have all of the bargaining power in the negotiations.3.    Their residents already have cable TV and high-speed Internet. 

A Sophomoric Analysis of CLECs

July 20, 2009

Analysis of:Analysts: Facilities-Based CLECs on the Upswing | www.xchangemag.com

1.    There is some effective CLEC growth in the US, but one will not find it clearly in this analysis.2.    The independent telcos are adding competitive services, particularly in adjacent territories to their incumbent areas.3.    There is also no mention in the source article about the countless CLECs that have bitten the dust. 

Let’s Hope the FCC Does Not Get “Fixed” Too Much

July 20, 2009

Analysis of:FCC Is Broken | www.broadcastingcable.com

1.    If “the FCC is broken,” perhaps it needs to be scaled back from its “enormous, wide-ranging authority.”2.    Chairman Jay Rockefeller of the Senate Commerce Committees says, “they will be watching” the FCC.3.    It is really something for these legislators when they are able to gain political cover in shifting so much of their responsibilities to a government agency. 

Vermont PUC Shutting Down FairPoint Operation is Just About an Idle Threat

July 17, 2009

Analysis of:Vt. could shut out FairPoint | www.nashuatelegraph.com

1.    First of all, yanking an operator’s license would involve a very long process. 2.    Even after a public hearing, by the time the lawyers get done wrangling about the matter in the courts, it could take several years. 3.    This idea by the Vermont PUC would result in the dumbest move possible.

Optimal Time for Large Independent Telcos to Buy Out FairPoint Assets

July 17, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint 'time running out'? | www.unionleader.com

1.    CenturyLink, Frontier, and Windstream should all be making offers for at least part of FairPoint’s assets in northern New England. 2.    They may never have a better opportunity to buy them at such a low price. 3.    Perhaps only the properties in Vermont would be sold.

Despite FiOS Installations, Verizon’s Pittsburgh Assets Could Remain on the Block

July 15, 2009

Analysis of:Pittsburgh Verizon cable TV, Internet deal moves step closer | www.pittsburghlive.com

1.    Back in early 2007, we indicated that there was a stronger possibility of Verizon selling off its properties in Pittsburgh. 2.    The advantages are clear in including the NFL city in a package. 3.    However, if Verizon is forced to make substantial investments in Pittsburgh, it is not out of the question that it would keep the lines there.

Another Telecom Breakup Would be Misguided, But Potentially Simulative

July 15, 2009

Analysis of:Justice Department Reviews Telco Practices | www.thestreet.com

1.    One day in the future, at the stroke of 12:00 midnight, the US Department of Justice may be visited by the first of three ghosts. 2.    Judge Green and two of his selections could be present – good luck! 3.    While another enforced divestiture would be imprudent, it would certainly shake up the telecom equipment industry.

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