Gerson Lehrman Group - Intelligently Connecting Institutions and Expertise.

Samuel Greenholtz

Principal, Telecom Pragmatics

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GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

Recommended Roadmap for Alcatel-Lucent to Prevent Self-Destruction

March 5, 2009

Alcatel-Lucent deepens focus on services | www.zdnetasia.com

1.  Hopefully, by now, Alcatel-Lucent has taken a hard look at Nortel’s situation. 2.  There has to be the full realization that one can see the former as almost an exact reflection of the latter. 3.  It would be suicidal to do anything less than in finally becoming more of a lean and mean corporation.

AT&T’s 4G Wireless Backdoor Strategy to get to More Fiber to the Home

March 5, 2009

Q&A: AT&T’s de la Vega discusses the three-screens of the future | telephonyonline.com

1.  Several months ago, we pointed out the importance of the promotion of AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega to head up both wireline and wireless services for consumers. 2.  He makes a statement in the original article that would have been considered extraordinarily radical not too long ago at the service provider. 3.  Just as there appears little doubt that Verizon is going to tie FiOS and LTE together, the expected marriage of AT&T’s 4G network with its broadband landlines will make it easier for its CEO to make a major shift to FTTH.

New Wireless Command Group at Verizon Gives Nokia a Fresh Start

March 5, 2009

Nokia, Verizon Plan Exclusive 4G Device | www.thestreet.com

1.  Any kind of a strained relationship with Nokia had to do with when there were more landline executives dominating the leadership at Verizon (especially with Siemens becoming part of the company). 2.  Now, it is a whole new world at the RBOC with high-level management being controlled by the wireless side. 3.  Nokia’s device could allow Verizon to get a tremendous jump on LTE in the US market.

Nortel’s Optic Business Next Best Thing to CO Switching

March 3, 2009

Et Tu, Morin? Then Fall, CESR! | www.lightreading.com

1.  Even other suppliers do not necessarily believe that Nortel’s high-end optics business is finished. 2.  While Nortel is in trouble financially and has a tarnished brand name, it has a huge installed base of long-haul optical equipment – and hence, customers it has already engaged with. 3.  This positive view assumes that there is not a major change in support and that there will be ongoing spending on future development.

Universities May Keep Same Telecom Fees Anticipating Higher Bandwidth

March 3, 2009

University of Maryland Keeping Landline Phones, For Now | www.news8.net

1.  There is undoubtedly liability concerns in not giving students the opportunity to have a landline. 2.  However, the key reason for not eliminating a voice fee is evidently the expectation of having an “infrastructure to deliver voice[,] data[,] and cable over fiber optics.” 3.  The university will be looking for a significantly higher fee for this level of service.

Huawei and 40G/100G

March 3, 2009

Huawei Does 40G | www.lightreading.com

1.  Huawei is quite aggressive in gaining access to new technologies. 2.  It studies implementations and figures out if they are viable. 3.  Huawei has a few different options available to it at 40G.

Carrier Ethernet and MPLS are not in Conflict

March 3, 2009

The many flavors of carrier Ethernet | www.networkworld.com

1.  For the last 5+ years, MPLS has been there as the implementation for end-to-end connectivity at Layer 2 ½, Layer 3. 2.  This protocol is used to set up the communication links and tear them down. 3.  It seems that with carrier Ethernet not trying to stay just local, such as with just between a couple of switches, and in becoming more broad-stroke based, it needs to form more of an MPLS kind of a handshake implementation.

Evolution of 10/40/100G Services All On Same Fiber Pair Hardly a Certainty

March 3, 2009

Fujitsu launches ADC technology for 100G | lw.pennnet.com

1.  Of course, there will be a certain amount of moving from a 10G installed base to 40G capability. 2.  However, from there, a 100G overlay on a different pair of fibers is likely to be the next step. 3.  That would be more probable than putting all three rates on the same network today.

AT&T Trial-Balooning Several Business Lines for Price of One?

March 2, 2009

AT&T Business Solutions Completes Fourth Quarter With New Features for the AT&T Telepresence Solution and Moves to Expand Its Wi-Fi Capabilities Through the Company's Wayport Acquisition | online.wsj.com

1. In at least one major city, AT&T appears  to be feeling out lost small-business customers. 2.    While it seems that the RBOC has not made any commitment to such a plan, it is apparently telemarketing this notion to business subscribers it has lost to Comcast, and perhaps to other MSOs. 3.    Even though the carrier’s focus for margins will be on contracts with major enterprises, the loss of small-business lines is evidently causing a large amount of consternation at the company.

Not Shocking Cablevision Holding its Own Against Verizon

March 2, 2009

Verizon's FiOS effect on Cablevision still invisible | telephonyonline.com

1.  As we said back in the summer of 2007, Cablevision was working hard to meet Verizon's challenge. 2.  The MSO has obviously succeeded. 3.  The other cable TV firms could learn a lesson in being more proactive.

New VP Should Greatly Help Adtran in International Market

March 2, 2009

Bolton Joins Adtran | www.lightreading.com

1.  Adtran’s new vice president of global marketing, Gary Bolton, is the type of low-key, nuts-and-bolts person that very much fits the supplier’s culture. 2.  His previous criticism of the TA 5000 as a low-performance, Ethernet delivery box may come back to haunt him. 3.  But Bolton always made it clear that he had the utmost respect for Adtran’s CEO and for his team, and that he viewed the supplier as an outstanding company.

Nortel Arrogant and Shortsighted to the End

February 27, 2009

Alteon deal worth just $17.65M, Nortel says | www.ottawacitizen.com

1.  A company on the brink of bankruptcy has to understand that unless it pulls the trigger on a relatively good deal, it will get far less later on. 2.  The Nortel/Alteon transaction is a case in point. 3.  Reportedly, it could have received double or triple the amount for the equipment business.

Occam will Benefit from Stimulus, but Watch for Enablence and Calix

February 27, 2009

Occam Networks: The Future Looks Great | seekingalpha.com

1.  There is no doubt that Occam will be a beneficiary of the ARRA funding because its “business model is focused on the rural customer.” 2.  Others have oppotrunities as well.  3.  And with “preference...given to higher speed projects,” fiber to the home will be the dominant equipment deployed.

Perhaps Apple is Just Giving its Partner a Friendly Kick in the Behind

February 27, 2009

Verizon to get iPhone? | sprintconnection.kansascity.com

1.  There is an alternative possibility regarding all of the chatting about Verizon getting together with Apple on the iPhone. 2.  It is plausible that Apple is using Verizon to get AT&T to go even faster on finishing its 3G network. 3.  Apple also has to worry about its long-term credibility in not sticking to the original agreement.

Level 3’s Indispensable Man

February 25, 2009

Level 3 -- Tale of Survival in Tough Times | online.wsj.com

1.  If Sunit Patel was to leave as CFO of Level 3 Communications anytime in the foreseeable future, the results could be disastrous. 2.  Patel is the master at refinancing and restructuring debt. 3.  He is the guy that “pull[s] rabbits out of the hat” – essentially, Patel is responsible for making sure that Level 3 will continue to be a player.

Level 3 is Purely Driven by Customer Demand Now

February 25, 2009

Level 3 turns a profit | denver.bizjournals.com

1.  Level 3 Communications has been doing everything it can to reduce its costs to the bone. 2.  The service provider will not add any capital unless it cannot be done with what is currently in the network – and just move that around. 3.  There are no discretionary, best-case projects any longer.

MSOs are in Reactive Mode With Online TV

February 25, 2009

Broadband TV Strategy | www.lightreading.com

1.  The fact that Comcast and Time Warner Cable are stepping up to the plate first with online television does not mean “that cable has the lead.” 2.  While telcos are actually increasing video subscribers, the MSOs are in a defensive posture as it relates to the growing threat from over-the-top services such as TV.com 3.  There is also nothing stopping the RBOCs from coming out with a similar type of offering.

Defending Other Side – Case for Infinera and RUS

February 24, 2009

Infinera DTN wins RUS listing | lw.pennnet.com

1.  While the Infinera box seems to be overkill for very small telcos, what does the supplier have to lose? 2.  Other vendors in the past, such as ADC (albeit a connector company), have been pleasantly surprised by the amount of business produced in this space. 3.  The fact that it is a switching and transport platform may have some appeal in this market.  

Infinera’s Mystery Customer Appears to be Google

February 24, 2009

Infinera Levels Up | www.lightreading.com

1.  Last quarter, Infinera biggest customer “was an Internet content provider.” 2.  As the source article points out, there has been conjecture about the supplier doing business with Google since 2005. 3.  There are definitely indications that Google was the buyer that “compris[ed] 23 percent of Infinera’s revenues” in the previous quarter.

Talks are Apparently Ongoing at Verizon on Google’s iPhone

February 24, 2009

Will Apple Increase iPhone Value with Rumored Verizon Deal? | seekingalpha.com

1.  There appears to be discussions between Apple and Verizon regarding the iPhone. 2.  However, at this time, it seems far from being a guaranteed project. 3.  Yet, even speculation alone in the news is already a blow to AT&T.

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