Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Hardball 10/29/09: At Last, AT&T’s U-verse As We Know It Will Start Going Away

October 29, 2009

Analysis of:U-Verse Growth Is Slowing | www.lightreading.com

We expect dramatic cutbacks in U-verse CAPEX over the next two years. The service has pretty much been a bust.   For AT&T, 3Q09 will probably “be identified as the quarter in which the U-verse star started to fade.”

Hardball 10/28/09: Chattanooga’s EPB Municipal Building Expensive Optic Network

October 28, 2009

Analysis of:EPB expands its fiber-optics services area | www.timesfreepress.com

EPB Fiber Optics has been working on its project for four years. It has put up with the usual delays for munis in fighting off lawsuits. EPB is going the Cadillac route with its network.

Hardball 10/27/09: Meaning of Verizon Wireless’ “Nationwide” LTE Network Unclear

October 27, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon-led investment group commits $1.3B to LTE development | www.fiercewireless.com

Verizon Wireless has said that it will have an LTE network throughout the US in late 2013 or early 2014. However, it has not clarified what that exactly means. Verizon appears to be aiming for 90 to 95% coverage.

Hardball 10/26/09: Verizon’s Pittsburgh Assets Evidently Untouchable

October 26, 2009

Analysis of:FiOS TV Goes Live In Pittsburgh | www.multichannel.com

Verizon has been vacillating over the last few years as to whether to put its property in Pittsburgh up for sale. The RBOC is now adamant that it will keep the city. Its lines will not be included in the western areas of New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, which are currently on the block.

Hardball 10/24/09: The Case for Verizon Doing Nothing to Save FairPoint

October 24, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint says new network backbone in place | www.nashuatelegraph.com

Recently, we wrote about Verizon possibly urging Windstream to buy the FairPoint assets. Even if there was a bankruptcy, it would help the RBOC in selling its properties if FairPoint was immediately picked up by a stable telco. Yet, Verizon has been very recently bending over backwards to state that it has done everything possible to help FairPoint – and will do no more. 

Hardball 10/22/09: 100G & Mesh Takeoff in Lower Manhattan

October 23, 2009

Analysis of:Huawei Touts End-to-End 100G | www.lightreading.com

The horrific 9/11 tragedy has had a silver lining for the telecommunications industry.  In effect, it created a quasi-greenfield situation in lower Manhattan in which Verizon’s only option was to tear up and rebuild the network.   The RBOC was able to take advantage of the sympathies of New Yorkers in doing all the work there from the 140 West Street CO, including digging streets in areas that were not necessarily near Ground Zero.

Hardball 10/22/09: Wake-up Call for Large Independent Telcos

October 22, 2009

Analysis of:Windstream fights to change broadband stimulus rules | telephonyonline.com

The big independent telcos, especially the Tier 2s, such as CenturyLink, Frontier Communications, and Windstream, are heading into a conundrum.   They have to be aggressive in replacing revenue losses on the wireline side with new ventures. The Tier 3s appear to be doing reasonably well.

Hardball: 10/22/09: Cisco & Verizon -- Times They are a Changin'

October 21, 2009

Analysis of:Collaboration paying off, says Cisco-Verizon study | telephonyonline.com

Cisco Systems used to not be one of Verizon’s favorite suppliers. However, the wireless leadership is not as anti-Cisco as the wireline operation was in the past. There now seems to be a shift in policy at the entire service provider regarding the vendor.

Hardball 10/16/09: Ciena Takes Wind Out of New Switching Systems’ Sails

October 16, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena/Nortel: Oh Yes, There's Overlap | www.lightreading.com

Ciena knocked the socks off of us with its recent announcement of the new CoreDirector and the 5400 family. Such a reaction from us is very rare. There is no doubt that the vast majority of people at Ciena wishes that there was at least a little bit more separation between that announcement and the publicizing of the bid for Nortel’s assets.

Hardball 10/15/09: Is Verizon behind Windstream’s interest in FairPoint?

October 15, 2009

Analysis of:M&A allure again follows Windstream | www.fiercetelecom.com

It would not be good for Verizon if FairPoint goes bankrupt. The RBOC is in the process of selling off lines to Frontier and has properties in the western portion of its incumbent territory on the block. Is Verizon encouraging Windstream to be a white knight in exchange for future considerations?

Hardball 9/30/09: Chance for DirecTV Purchase by Verizon Better, Still Long-shot

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Is a DirecTV Acquisition on the Verizon? | online.wsj.com

On face value, there is only an outside chance of Verizon purchasing a satellite TV operator. Yet, it might have some interest in acquiring DirectTV from the standpoint of not wanting to expand its FiOS network anymore than is absolutely necessary. It seems that the RBOC is feeling pressure from both the FCC and local regulatory commissions in terms of feeding broadband to other areas within its incumbent territory. 

Hardball 9/29/09: Commercially Available LTE Handsets Likely By YE2009

September 29, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless Plans Mass LTE Deployment | www.informationweek.com

A little over a year ago, we wrote: “As with FiOS, Verizon wishes to surprise the world with a very aggressive schedule for LTE deployment.” According to the source article, the CTO states, “Verizon Wireless is planning to light up its LTE nationwide network next year in one fell swoop.” The market is also apt to be stunned by the very early availability of 4G handsets.

Hardball 9/28/09: Impressive Announcement by Ciena

September 28, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena unveils next-gen packet optical core | telephonyonline.com

We have never hesitated in the past to point out Ciena’s mistakes and weaknesses. The introduction of these systems by the supplier is definitely remarkable. Some industry analysts, who had an insufficient appreciation of what it takes to play in this game, may now see there was truly a need to be spending all of that R&D money.

Hardball 9/26/09: The Term “Cable TV Apps” is an Oxymoron

September 26, 2009

Analysis of:Cable TV Apps: Where Art Though? | www.lightreading.com

There has never been “the cable app experience.”   At the same time, is it really the case that both “Verizon or AT&T [are ever truly] announcing some new suite of TV apps for FiOS or U-verse”?   “Twitter”, "fantasy football, and “multiview” were not designed by Verizon executives – they were already around.

Hardball 9/24/09: Ciena Buying Nortel Assets Would be Mistake

September 24, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena: Ready to Pay for Nortel's MEN? | www.lightreading.com

One prominent industry analyst believes that Ciena purchasing Nortel’s optical business would help its position at AT&T. We agree with the analyst in the source article that “such a move would not be a good use of Ciena's cash.” We also argue that it would not do much to strengthen its position at AT&T or anywhere else.

Hardball 9/17/09: Incredible Spin Continues out of Infinera

September 17, 2009

Analysis of:Infinera targets 2010-2011 for 40G, hits metro now | blog.telephonyonline.com

The CEO from Infinera will obviously continue to make statements that defy reality until he steps down next year. The analyst quoted in the article is wrong about the argument regarding the 40G space as being “somewhat compelling.   It is not convincing at all.

Hardball 8/9/09: Ciena Buying Nortel Assets Would be Mistake

September 9, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena: Ready to Pay for Nortel's MEN? | www.lightreading.com

One prominent industry analyst believes that Ciena purchasing Nortel’s optical business would help its position at AT&T.  We agree with the analyst in the source article that “such a move would not be a good use of Ciena's cash.”  We also argue that it would not do much to strengthen its position at AT&T or anywhere else.

Hardball 9/4/09: From PTT to “Push to Protection” in the Blackberry

September 4, 2009

Analysis of:City police to get smart phones | www.baltimoresun.com

For the police, instantaneous silent communication could be the difference between life and death.  Greater use of such software should cause Sprint, which like other wireless carriers sells the capability, to want to unload its iDEN network, historically popular with first responders, that much sooner.

Hardball 9/3/09: Cultural Legacy of Verizon’s FiOS Could Last Decades

September 3, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon FiOS Fires Up NFL RedZone Deal | www.multichannel.com

When Verizon messes up, we do not hesitate to point it out.  However, in the case of FiOS, there will likely be documentaries on the unprecedented achievement.  Most importantly, the effects of this accomplishment on Verizon’s culture will likely be long- lasting.

Hardball 9/2/09: Could AT&T Become A Giant Qwest?

September 2, 2009

Analysis of:AT&T Gives New York 3G Network A Boost | www.businessinsider.com

About 10 months ago, we pointed out AT&T desperately needs to significantly increase its 3G wireless spending.  At present, it is still moving too slowly in making improvements, which is adversely affecting its iPhone service.  The battles between the old Ed Whitacre supporters and the Randall Stephenson faction over future direction across the board are continuing to immobilize the corporation.

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