Mr. Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Mr. Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Hardball 1/22/10: For the Last Time -- Google Doesn't Want to be a Telco

January 22, 2010

Analysis of:Has Google found its true calling? | brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com

Approaching two years ago we asked: “Why would a company that does an excruciatingly amount of cost analysis be attracted to a high-capital, potentially low-margin business?"  Google has no interest in “disrupting the telecommunications industry.” All of its investments in networks have only one goal -- to allow the users to connect to the cloud.

Hardball 1/15/10: VZ’s New Pricing Focus on Just LTE Types of Subs

January 15, 2010

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless Offers Simple, Affordable Convenience With New Unlimited Voice Plans | www.thestreet.com

The situation is analogous to Verizon on the wireline side in which residential customers that just get POTS are unattractive because they are not profitable for the carrier. In the same way, a bigger proportion of the lower-end wireless subscribers is less likely to pay on time and requires customer support for cheaper handsets. In going from over 80 skews down to a 50-skew lineup – and then reduced significantly from there – the stress is not likely to be on the “simple feature phones.”

Hardball 1/1/3/10: Apple’s 3G iPhone Expected at VZ Starting as Early as June

January 13, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T Gets a Bushel of Apple Bruising | www.thestreet.com

In December of last year we anticipated that Apple’s Tablet will work on Verizon Wireless’ 4G network by the second quarter of 2010. However, it appears that Apple’s iPhone will be used on Verizon’s 3G network starting as early as June. As the Verizon door continues to open further for Apple’s products, one could speculate even more on other future opportunities for the vendor at the wireless carrier. 

Hardball 1/8/10: Never a Better Time to Negotiate with VZ on Equipment?

January 8, 2010

Analysis of:Verizon's Wellbrock on router OC-768 port prices | www.lightwaveonline.com

It is hard to remember Verizon ever making a statement like “the router vendors are asking too much money for OC-768 interfaces.” In other words, the RBOC would not try to put public pressure on vendors, such as Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks, to get pricing down – with the logical expectation that one of the two would be in a position to get additional business. The explanation could be that the sourcing department is currently at a disadvantage.

Hardball 1/7/10: Don’t Underrate Value of Qwest’s LD to Independents

January 7, 2010

Analysis of:Qwest shops its LD network again (with local attached) | telephonyonline.com

Now that Qwest might be shopping itself as a full company, there may be less stress placed on its long-haul network by industry analysts. Certainly, the acquisition of cities, including several Tier 1s, would have the most worth. However, it should be remembered that the biggest reason why the CenturyTel/Embarq merger happened was the former’s interexchange network.

Hardball 1/5/10: Would NSN Need to Make Mr. Smith its CEO to Get a Deal Done?

January 5, 2010

Analysis of:Ciena Shares Soar on Nokia Rumor | www.thestreet.com

It is our understanding that Ciena has a poison pill provision that was put in place a couple of years ago. It would just add to the hostility in the event of a hostile takeover. We just do not believe that Ciena’s CEO, Gary Smith, will be quick to give up his powerful position at the company.

Hardball 1/4/10: Is AT&T Forcing the Filing of an Antitrust Case by the Feds?

January 4, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T and the end of POTS | telephonyonline.com

Last summer, we wrote, “One wonders whether [AT&T’s] CEO would partially welcome [the] prospect [of an antitrust suit] as a way to unload large assets from this unwieldy monstrosity created by his predecessor.” The carrier’s extraordinary response back to the FCC that it wants to dump the PSTN could result in the start of such thinking by the government.  It certainly fits in with well with AT&T’s current mentality that it wants to spend as little as possible on its networks.

Hardball 1/3/10: Expect Google’s Nexus One More Competitive with Apple’s iPhone

January 3, 2010

Analysis of:Google's Very Own Android Launch | www.thestreet.com

There have been questions over whether any handset company could ever rival Apple’s iPhone. We recently wrote: “It appears that Verizon’s Droid just does not reach the level of attraction of the iPhone.”  However, we expect the Nexus One, which will offer a new version of the operating system, to be very much like its arch-competitor. 

Hardball 1/2/10: Calix IPO: Supplier’s 4thQ Should be Impressive

January 2, 2010

Analysis of:Next Year's Big IPO | online.barrons.com

CenturyLink does a large amount of business with Calix. The supplier is having a hard time meeting its ship dates at the moment because it has been slammed with orders from the largest IOC. It is certainly outside of normal production for Calix.

Hardball 1/01/10: Calix IPO Could Achieve New Access Paradigm with Cyan

January 1, 2010

Analysis of:IPOs make a comeback in 2009 setting stage for a busy year of companies going public in 2010 | www.sfexaminer.com

In terms of excitement level to get the valuation the highest, Telecom Pragmatics still believes that nothing would compare with Calix combining with Cyan in terms of impact.The two CEOs would have the cachet to redefine and expand the meaning of access networks.   Or they could just outright proclaim that Cyan is definitely an access play.

Hardball 12/22/09: Calix’s IPO to Bolster Access Play?

December 21, 2009

Analysis of:Tech IPOs filed so far have shades of dot-com bubble | www.marketwatch.com

In a recent article, we talked about the possibility that Calix’s IPO was about it and Cyan getting together. There is an alternative explanation.   It could be to become a more well-rounded access supplier.

Hardball 12/19/09: Case for Telstra’s Open Network Being Advantageous

December 19, 2009

Analysis of:Telstra, Australia lay groundwork for proposed broadband plan | www.fiercetelecom.com

The concept of open networks has been around for a long time. Any phone, video, etc. service provider can take advantage of an infrastructure. While it is getting a great amount of legs internationally, it has not done so in the US too much.

Hardball 12/15/09: PR Spin of Verizon’s Restricted FiOS in Greater Boston Area

December 15, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon enhances its Massachusetts DSL footprint | www.fiercetelecom.com

There is sure a nice ring to the press release title.  It says: “DSL...Service to More Than 17,000 Consumers in New Neighborhoods in 17 Massachusetts Communities.” It does not take long to figure out that this announcement is quite underwhelming.

Hardball 12/14/09: Backhaul Opportunity for Hybrid Fiber/Microwave Limited

December 14, 2009

Analysis of:FiberTower Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Listing Compliance Notice | www.marketwatch.com

There can be little doubt that especially with Verizon’s big push for LTE, that the backhaul activity will be huge over the next few years. At the same time, there may be already one too many players focused in the hybrid fiber/microwave alternative carrier space. There are at least four competitors in the US, which have been mostly dedicated to wireless backhaul.

Hardball 12/13/09: Market Stranglehold Removed from Canadian Wireless Incumbents

December 13, 2009

Analysis of:Canada Rule Change Could Shake Up Telecom Market | seekingalpha.com

Earlier, the Canadian government’s rules on ownership ensured the dominant positions of a few large carriers, including Rogers Communications and BCE.  The overruling is definitely “a populist decision to ensure increased competition in wireless in Canada.” It also provides a better shot for smaller, regional players to make penetration.

Hardball 12/12/09: Voice Staying off LTE for Long Time Very Shortsighted

December 12, 2009

Analysis of:Battle Over Voice on LTE Heats up | www.pcworld.com

What is the point in going to 4G wireless technology without voice being integrated relatively soon? The fact that “carriers expect to keep their 3G networks up for several years” is not indicative of the arrival of voice on LTE devices. Also, what law is there that all of the benefits of 4G have to be delivered to just one end-user device? 

Hardball 12/11/09: Apple’s Tablet -- Verizon’s First 4G Device?

December 11, 2009

Analysis of:Apple Tablet Geared as Kindle Killer | www.thestreet.com

Despite all of the naysayers, there is one feature that could differentiate Apple’s Tablet. Of course, it is 4G capability. Verizon Wireless will need to introduce something that provides data capability because LTE will not be available on handsets right away.

Hardball 12/10/09: Insanity of MSOs Providing Backhaul to New LTE Towers

December 10, 2009

Analysis of:Cable gets its wireless backhaul groove on | www.fiercetelecom.com

It is curious as to why MSOs, such as Time Warner Cable, are delivering service to new Verizon Wireless LTE towers at all. The cable companies were not thrilled about working with Sprint because they viewed the wireless company as a real threat to its broadband business. Verizon is 10 times more likely to eat the MSOs’ lunch, particularly in the area of video. 

Hardball 12/8/09: CableCARD Proves Gov't Shouldn't be Creating Retail Markets

December 8, 2009

Analysis of:FCC admits CableCARD a failure, vows to try something else | arstechnica.com

The more a politician in Washington or at the state level decides how to run a network, the more inefficiency it will produce. It is often about creating an image of a problem and trying to find a solution. The great and legitimate fear of the cable companies is that the whole net neutrality cause will create yet another significant cost compared to its competitors – for no value.

Hardball: 12/2/09: iDEN is Now PTT “Gold Standard” Network at Sprint?

December 3, 2009

Analysis of:Sprint Preparing to Discontinue QChat in Favor of iDEN Again | phonenews.com

Sprint has come full circle. After trying so hard to get push-to-talk users to go to the CDMA network, now it will be telling them the original iDEN network is much better. It would be a wonder if many of Sprint’s customers are not totally confused by now. 

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