Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Hardball 11/20/09/13:00 GMT: NSN Likely for NT’s Optical Assets– Infinera Entry?

November 20, 2009

Analysis of:One at a time, please: Nortel delays one auction because of another | localtechwire.com

Nokia Siemens Networks desperately needs to establish a sizable public network presence in North America. Even if Ericsson places a bid, NSN appears to be the favorite to get Nortel’s optical assets. There has been speculation about Infinera entering the fray.

Hardball 11/19/09: Kiss of Death for Clearwire?

November 19, 2009

Analysis of:Clearwire: 'Google Believes in Us' | www.unstrung.com

Google’s lack of investment in the last round speaks volumes. As we have said in the past, no company does as much agonizing cost analysis as the search engine provider. We still believe that if Clearwire does survive, it will be with a far less ambitious, targeted metro approach.

Hardball 11/18/09: One Last Kick in Pants from WV to VZ Before Parting

November 18, 2009

Analysis of:West Virginia protests Frontier's Verizon acquisition | www.fiercetelecom.com

The gloves are coming off one final time between Verizon and West Virginia.  The state is probably going to be so relieved to get Verizon out that it will likely play ball with Frontier.  It would hardly be an exaggeration to say that the relationship over the years between the two parties has been acrimonious. 

Hardball 11/17/09: AT&T's Version of Keystone Cops

November 17, 2009

Analysis of:AT&T Rebuts Verizon Ads, Again | blogs.wsj.com

Nothing illustrates more the state of disarray at AT&T than this bungled attempt to dispute Verizon Wireless’ claims. AT&T apparently even has trouble settling on a unified public relations/marketing response. The service provider just did not want the world to know about the disparity in 3G coverage between the two carriers.

Hardball 11/16/09: Infinera Lobs Up Some More Softballs

November 16, 2009

Analysis of:Infinera Named Second Fastest-Growing Tech Company in North America | money.cnn.com

Infinera’s statements continue to make it very easy to hit them out of the park. It would be much better off if it was really forthcoming about its business. While there are some executives that have appeared to have been truly kept in the dark on the company’s execution, it is the high-level people that know better that have been the most disappointing in their responses.

Hardball 11/15/09: Ciena Should Avoid Manufacture-Discontinuing CoreDirector I

November 15, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena offers Carrier Ethernet certification program | www.cedmagazine.com

There is still no doubt that Ciena has a virtual monopoly on the optical cross-connectmarket. With AT&T having over 500 CoreDirectors, it makes it difficult for the RBOCto go with another supplier. However, upon closer analysis, the 5400 could be sodifferent that it may as well be from a second manufacturer.

Hardball 11/14/09: Potential Ciena Counter-bid – Bridge Too Far

November 14, 2009

Analysis of:Nortel postpones optical, Ethernet unit auction | blog.telephonyonline.com

Most of Ciena’s acquisitions in the past have been train wrecks. While it may not be totally apparent from the supplier’s previous rhetoric, the strength of its optical transport and switching line has bailed the company out.  However, if Ciena decided to bid up (if there was a counteroffer), its continuing existence would be at a huge risk for any amount “above $750 million” and its solid product lines would perhaps not be enough to save the firm this time.

Hardball 10/29/09: At Last, AT&T’s U-verse As We Know It Will Start Going Away

October 29, 2009

Analysis of:U-Verse Growth Is Slowing | www.lightreading.com

We expect dramatic cutbacks in U-verse CAPEX over the next two years. The service has pretty much been a bust.   For AT&T, 3Q09 will probably “be identified as the quarter in which the U-verse star started to fade.”

Hardball 10/28/09: Chattanooga’s EPB Municipal Building Expensive Optic Network

October 28, 2009

Analysis of:EPB expands its fiber-optics services area | www.timesfreepress.com

EPB Fiber Optics has been working on its project for four years. It has put up with the usual delays for munis in fighting off lawsuits. EPB is going the Cadillac route with its network.

Hardball 10/27/09: Meaning of Verizon Wireless’ “Nationwide” LTE Network Unclear

October 27, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon-led investment group commits $1.3B to LTE development | www.fiercewireless.com

Verizon Wireless has said that it will have an LTE network throughout the US in late 2013 or early 2014. However, it has not clarified what that exactly means. Verizon appears to be aiming for 90 to 95% coverage.

Hardball 10/26/09: Verizon’s Pittsburgh Assets Evidently Untouchable

October 26, 2009

Analysis of:FiOS TV Goes Live In Pittsburgh | www.multichannel.com

Verizon has been vacillating over the last few years as to whether to put its property in Pittsburgh up for sale. The RBOC is now adamant that it will keep the city. Its lines will not be included in the western areas of New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, which are currently on the block.

Hardball 10/24/09: The Case for Verizon Doing Nothing to Save FairPoint

October 24, 2009

Analysis of:FairPoint says new network backbone in place | www.nashuatelegraph.com

Recently, we wrote about Verizon possibly urging Windstream to buy the FairPoint assets. Even if there was a bankruptcy, it would help the RBOC in selling its properties if FairPoint was immediately picked up by a stable telco. Yet, Verizon has been very recently bending over backwards to state that it has done everything possible to help FairPoint – and will do no more. 

Hardball 10/22/09: 100G & Mesh Takeoff in Lower Manhattan

October 23, 2009

Analysis of:Huawei Touts End-to-End 100G | www.lightreading.com

The horrific 9/11 tragedy has had a silver lining for the telecommunications industry.  In effect, it created a quasi-greenfield situation in lower Manhattan in which Verizon’s only option was to tear up and rebuild the network.   The RBOC was able to take advantage of the sympathies of New Yorkers in doing all the work there from the 140 West Street CO, including digging streets in areas that were not necessarily near Ground Zero.

Hardball 10/22/09: Wake-up Call for Large Independent Telcos

October 22, 2009

Analysis of:Windstream fights to change broadband stimulus rules | telephonyonline.com

The big independent telcos, especially the Tier 2s, such as CenturyLink, Frontier Communications, and Windstream, are heading into a conundrum.   They have to be aggressive in replacing revenue losses on the wireline side with new ventures. The Tier 3s appear to be doing reasonably well.

Hardball: 10/22/09: Cisco & Verizon -- Times They are a Changin'

October 21, 2009

Analysis of:Collaboration paying off, says Cisco-Verizon study | telephonyonline.com

Cisco Systems used to not be one of Verizon’s favorite suppliers. However, the wireless leadership is not as anti-Cisco as the wireline operation was in the past. There now seems to be a shift in policy at the entire service provider regarding the vendor.

Hardball 10/16/09: Ciena Takes Wind Out of New Switching Systems’ Sails

October 16, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena/Nortel: Oh Yes, There's Overlap | www.lightreading.com

Ciena knocked the socks off of us with its recent announcement of the new CoreDirector and the 5400 family. Such a reaction from us is very rare. There is no doubt that the vast majority of people at Ciena wishes that there was at least a little bit more separation between that announcement and the publicizing of the bid for Nortel’s assets.

Hardball 10/15/09: Is Verizon behind Windstream’s interest in FairPoint?

October 15, 2009

Analysis of:M&A allure again follows Windstream | www.fiercetelecom.com

It would not be good for Verizon if FairPoint goes bankrupt. The RBOC is in the process of selling off lines to Frontier and has properties in the western portion of its incumbent territory on the block. Is Verizon encouraging Windstream to be a white knight in exchange for future considerations?

Hardball 9/30/09: Chance for DirecTV Purchase by Verizon Better, Still Long-shot

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Is a DirecTV Acquisition on the Verizon? | online.wsj.com

On face value, there is only an outside chance of Verizon purchasing a satellite TV operator. Yet, it might have some interest in acquiring DirectTV from the standpoint of not wanting to expand its FiOS network anymore than is absolutely necessary. It seems that the RBOC is feeling pressure from both the FCC and local regulatory commissions in terms of feeding broadband to other areas within its incumbent territory. 

Hardball 9/29/09: Commercially Available LTE Handsets Likely By YE2009

September 29, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless Plans Mass LTE Deployment | www.informationweek.com

A little over a year ago, we wrote: “As with FiOS, Verizon wishes to surprise the world with a very aggressive schedule for LTE deployment.” According to the source article, the CTO states, “Verizon Wireless is planning to light up its LTE nationwide network next year in one fell swoop.” The market is also apt to be stunned by the very early availability of 4G handsets.

Hardball 9/28/09: Impressive Announcement by Ciena

September 28, 2009

Analysis of:Ciena unveils next-gen packet optical core | telephonyonline.com

We have never hesitated in the past to point out Ciena’s mistakes and weaknesses. The introduction of these systems by the supplier is definitely remarkable. Some industry analysts, who had an insufficient appreciation of what it takes to play in this game, may now see there was truly a need to be spending all of that R&D money.

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