Mr. Neil Buxton

GLG News by Mr. Neil Buxton, Managing Director

Where are we in the supercycle?

December 12, 2007

Analysis of:The Base Metals Market Briefing | www.gfms-metalsconsulting.com

Base metal prices have come under pressure on the back of weak demand, not only in in the US, but also increasingly in Europe and Japan.  This threatens to overshadow, in the short-term, the still strong demand growth from China.   Nickel and zinc prices have already fallen by 50% from their bull market peaks.  Is this a harbinger of things to come for the base metals sector?

Will record high nickel prices kill the golden goose

May 28, 2007

Analysis of:Stainless steel production to grow further – but at a slower rate | www.worldsteel.org

Nickel demand has benefited from the sharp gains in stainless steel output. However nickel is now the single most important cost in the production os stainless steel.  As such stainless steel prices have increased and demand for stainless is beginning to be affected. Nickel demand is likely to be adversely affected by lower stainless output and substitution.  As a result nickel prices could come under downward pressure.  

Consolidation rather than exploration

April 2, 2007

Analysis of:Analysts clamour for higher LionOre bid | www.theglobeandmail.com

Xstrata's move for LionOre reinforces the latest trend that it is easier to buy existing production rather than develop new projects

There remain major financial and technological risks concerning the next generation of nickel "mega" projects

Putting the base metal super cycle theory to the test

October 6, 2006

Analysis of:The Base Metals Market Briefing | www.gfms-metalsconsulting.com

At this stage in most previous commodity price cycles, the fundamentals would be coming under pressure as demand began to slow as the supply response to the high base metal prices began to emerge.

However despite record nominal prices in many cases, there is little evidence of a deterioration in the market balance.
 
As such, the price performance in this cycle is going to be very different to what has gone on before. 

CVRD arrives late to the party

August 11, 2006

Analysis of:CVRD to Make Bid for Inco | www.nytimes.com

Following the apparent success of Xstrata's bid for Falconbridge, CVRD has entered the race for Inco.

CVRD is already in the process of establishing a significant presence in the nickel sector via organic greenfield projects.  Given its own projects, and Inco's existing operations and its own expansion plans, the deal could establish it as the leading nickel producer.

Business as usual in the copper market

July 24, 2006

Analysis of:What’s going on with the copper market? | www.business-standard.com

1) Copper prices have fallen on the perception that the labor contract at the huge Escondida mine in Chile will be resolved without a strike.

2) The disruptions to copper supply in Mexico also appear to be drawing to a close.

3) However the key feature of the copper market is that many of the key drivers that sent prices to record highs in May are still relevant.  Therefore it is still too early to write off the bull market in the copper market.

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