Mr. John Ansell MBA

GLG News by Mr. John Ansell MBA, Director

A triple combination for H1N1: good in principle

October 30, 2009

Analysis of:Triple-combo Drug Shows Promise Against Antiviral Resistant H1N1 | www.medicalnewstoday.com

The principle behind Adamas’s triple combination development for influenza is a good one. There is clearly a need for improved treatments, as the latest wave of swine flu is now showing. Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and ribavirin are reasonable drugs to select but the third component, amantadine, may prove the weak link.

GSK's new venture into Duchenne's makes sense

October 14, 2009

Analysis of:GlaxoSmithKline and Prosensa form alliance to fight Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy | www.pipelinereview.com

GSK's latest deal on Duchenne's muscular dystrophy with the Dutch company Prosena is a further indication of the former's interest in diversifying out of the more obvious, major areas of medicine.This can make sense: such "esoteric" indications areas are less well understood, there is less competition and commercial rewards can turn out to be greater than superficially apparent.

What does Solvay offer to a bidder ?

September 25, 2009

Analysis of:Sources: Abbott sparks Solvay bidding war, UCB may follow | www.fiercebiotech.com

In considering the outcome of the current bidding war, what can Solvay Pharmaceuticals offer to an acquirer ? It can’t be the R & D pipeline. In 2004 Solvay was described by one industry observer as having a great pipeline. But except for one modest short-term success in the market, all of the projects then at Phase III or beyond fell down.

Dainippon Sumitomo acquires a bridgehead and settles Sepracor's uncertain future

September 4, 2009

Analysis of:Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma to Acquire Sepracor for U.S. $23.00 Per Share in an All-Cash Tender Offer Valued at Approximately U.S. $2.6 Billion | www.pipelinereview.com

In acquiring Sepracor, Dainippon Sumitomo is gaining a modest-sized commercial bridgehead for marketing its products in North America, but one which by itself had an uncertain future. Dainippon Sumitomo will need to take action to stabilize a company which has been facing issues concerning its future sustainability.

An important landmark for Nycomed's Daxas

September 1, 2009

Analysis of:Four studies published in The Lancet show roflumilast (Daxas®), a new oral approach to COPD, improves lung function and reduces exacerbations | www.nycomed.com

The level of unmet need in COPD, a very common respiratory disease, is high. Consequently, provided a new drug is registrable it does not have to have outstanding qualities to become a substantial success. Nycomed’s Daxas has recently been submitted for registration for COPD in the US and Europe. If registered, this novel drug will be the first member of its class to reach the market.

Nycomed’s Daxas takes an important step forward

May 12, 2009

Analysis of:Nycomed files European marketing authorisation application for Daxas® in COPD | www.pipelinereview.com

With the recent setbacks to Almirall’s clidinium bromide – it is not now scheduled to re-enter the regulatory fray until late 2011/early 2012 -  the way has opened up for the PDE4 inhibitor Daxas (roflumilast) to be the next big thing in COPD. If it can only overcome the final, regulatory hurdles, it stands a good chance of becoming a substantial blockbuster.  Daxas may not turn out to be the greatest thing since sliced bread for this indication – but then it doesn’t need to be. COPD is a common respiratory disease with a much greater level of unmet need than exists in the more familiar asthma indication. Only one dedicated drug, Spiriva (tiotropium) from Boehringer Ingelheim/Pfizer, has really made it in COPD so far, with recently announced sales of $2.7 billion in 2008.

Solvay Strategy - the company appends a note

April 27, 2009

Analysis of:Sanofi moves on Solvay's pharma division | www.ft.com

On April 22nd Solvay appended a note to its initial April 1st press release which we commented upon at the time (Solvay confirms it is proceeding with an analysis of various options for its pharmaceutical activities) on its web site: http://www.solvay.com/services/newsfrompo/0,,73459-2-0,00.htm This confirms that Solvay is proceeding with an analysis of various options for its pharmaceutical activities - not just M&A - which rumors have concentrated upon.

Glaxo Stiefel deals with the dermatology question

April 21, 2009

Analysis of:Glaxo agrees $3.6bn Stiefel deal | www.ft.com

Dermatology, formerly a heritage area for GSK, currently accounts for less than 3% of the company's total pharmaceutical turnover. Incorporation of Stiefel's business will only bring this up to around 6%. Neither company has succeeded since the 1980s in developing genuinely novel dermatologicals - it's some years since dermatology has been a therapeutic area GSK has actively pursued.

Solvay Pharmaceuticals – prospects for a sale

April 6, 2009

Analysis of:Sanofi moves on Solvay's pharma division | www.ft.com

How attractive is Solvay’s Pharmaceuticals sector ? Sanofi clearly believes Solvay is worth a bid. But in terms of its current product range, in 2008 Solvay only had one product, Fenofibrate, selling over €0.5 billion (€511 million in 2008), and one other, Androgel, over €200 million. Its products would scarcely be large enough to make an impact when subsumed within a major pharmaceutical company of the size of Sanofi Aventis. What about Solvay's R & D pipeline ? There may be 10 projects in the Phase III pipeline but the proportion accounted for by NCEs capable of being developed into major new products is limited.

Pfizer-Wyeth: Increased Scale Could be The Achilles Heel

January 26, 2009

Analysis of:Pfizer To Acquire Wyeth, Creating the World's Premier Biopharmaceutical Company | www.premierbiopharma.com

Let’s look at one particular aspect of this merger, which, for quite some time now has appeared to me to be the Achilles heel of megamergers: increased scale. Pfizer is already the largest pharmaceutical company, with 2008 global sales announced today of $44 billion. I consider that some of the problems the company has been encountering are related to its already unprecedented size. As I shall show below, these problems of scale will be exacerbated again with the incorporation of Wyeth. Wyeth’s pharmaceutical sales announced today for 2008 were $19 billion. Aggregating these with Pfizer’s current sales, this will increase the scale of Pfizer by 43%.

Pfizer focuses down - but at the same time takes on more risk

October 8, 2008

Analysis of:Pfizer shifts focus to cancer and biotech drugs | ap.google.com

As the biggest pharmaceutical company, Pfizer's R & D needs to be more productive than any other company's if it is to survive and prosper. But Pfizer must have new products that are big if they are to make an impact on its bottom line. The conundrum is that disease is a diffuse market, with few very big pharmaceutical products to treat it, and far more smaller ones. Thus in 2007 there were only 52 products whose global sales exceeded $2 billion. A product with $2 billion turnover product would contribute 4% to Pfizer's total turnover - just about big enough to make a significant impact on its performance. But those 52 products are for all therapeutic areas. Therefore Pfizer in focusing down is aiming at a rather limited-size target. And rights to the majority of products becoming blockbusters will not be on offer to Pfizer as they will be retained by its competitors.

Chinese generics is nothing new

May 21, 2008

Analysis of:China Muscles In On The Generics Industry | www.pharmalot.com

In 1976, sitting in my office in International Marketing at Fisons, Loughborough, UK, I used to watch the drums of bulk paracetamol arriving at the factory from China - easily recognizable from the Chinese script decorating them. I'm sure the UK wasn't the only country importing raw materials from China then.

Abbott's Humira: a key step towards market leadership in psoriasis

January 8, 2008

Analysis of:Abbott's HUMIRA® Approved in the European Union for Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis | money.cnn.com

European approval for Humira in psoriasis is a key step towards leadership over the other monoclonal antibodies already approved - and because this is the most valuable category, leadership also of the total psoriasis market. In April 2007 Abbott submitted this indication for approval to the FDA as well as for Europe. When US approval is obtained, as seems likely early in 2008, Abbott will be in a position to achieve global market leadership in psoriasis with Humira. This is mainly because it can be administered every other week by sub-cutaneous injection, which is more convenient than the modes of administration of its monoclonal competitors. It enables patients to inject Humira at home.

Lundbeck and anticancer applications

October 9, 2007

Analysis of:TopoTarget and Lundbeck sign agreement forsiramesine, a new and promising mechanism in cancer therapy | www.pipelinereview.com

This move conforms with Lundbeck's strategy to concentrate on CNS areas and to bring in other parties to develop non-CNS applications.

HIV vaccines - time to face the hard reality ?

October 1, 2007

Analysis of:Vaccination and Enrollment Are Discontinued in Phase II Trials of Merck's Investigational HIV Vaccine Candidate | www.merck.com

Persisting with developing a vaccine for HIV may be no more realistic than attempting to produce one for the common cold. There is a link - both are caused by adenoviruses. If Merck, after 20 years has not succeeded for HIV, shouldn't development resources on vaccines now be channeled to more productive areas of research on HIV ?

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