GLG News by Mr. Jim Belfiore, President
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
-
April 13, 2009
Valley homeowners starting to see mortgage relief from plan | www.azcentral.com
The industry is searching for some glimmer of hope, some good news; unfortunately, this week it came from a misinformed journalist who poorly researched a story that ended up on the front page of the Phoenix Metro Area's main daily newspaper.
-
Desert Ridge: Down But Not Out
December 24, 2008
Development Halts Desert Home Project | www.azcentral.com
Despite Pulte Homes', Toll Brothers', and D.R. Horton's (as well as others) decisions to walk from land, homebuilding remains profitable in the Desert Ridge area.
-
Biggest Priorities: Slow Foreclosures, Stabilize Prices
October 31, 2008
Tested in the West | www.azcentral.com
The direction of the economy will largely be dictated by how many foreclosures occur during the next six months and how much further prices fall.
-
The Second Half: Buyer's Market
July 2, 2008
Unfinished subdivisions grinding to a halt | www.azcentral.com
Bad news for some, though, will soon turn out to be good news for others. The second half of this year will yield ample opportunities for residential land / lot buyers.
-
July 1, 2008
KB Home’s Loss Widens as Inventory of Unsold Houses Mounts | online.wsj.com
Investors and market observers can count on continued homebuilder losses, as home prices a pushed downward further.
-
June 16, 2008
Lessons From the Housing Bubble | online.wsj.com
Our next lesson may be that homebuyers should carry some of the financial risk associated with owning a home.
-
Phoenix Attached Projects in Trouble
June 6, 2008
$3.1M lien filed against condo developer | www.bizjournals.com
The question many looking from the outside-in may soon start asking is, “How many buyers are there for $300 / square foot to $800 / square foot housing in Phoenix?” As the single-family market bottoms out, the answer will come. Hopefully the timing is sooner rather than later.
-
For Buyers with Income, Feelings are Problem, not Financing
May 29, 2008
Consumers Are Downbeat on Economy | online.wsj.com
An improvement in consumer sentiment will lead to an improvement in new home traffic and home sales, as well as an improvement in other areas of the economy. Buyers that “feel” good make confident purchases. Watch consumer sentiment and confidence indices, as well as BREC traffic count figures, for improvements, which we expect late in 2008.
-
May 27, 2008
As Dues Dry Up, The Neighbors Pay | online.wsj.com
Rising costs and high delinquencies are pushing HOAs into bankruptcy. Add HOA solvency to your underwriting checklist.
-
The Housing Crisis is Over? Not in Phoenix
May 12, 2008
The Housing Crisis is Over | online.wsj.com
Mr. Moulle-Berteaux seems to lack is an in-the-streets perspective.The housing market will shrink and prices will decline further before the Phoenix metro housing market hits bottom.
-
Northeast Phoenix Woes: No Market for Desert Ridge?
April 10, 2008
Developers seek relief in state land deals | www.azcentral.com
The limited demand within Northeast Phoenix should come as no surprise to the State. The deceleration in home sales has created a surplus of finished and planned lots. Despite current market conditions, BREC anticipates the market area continuing to hold value better than most Valley submarkets this year. Land and lot demand, though, should trail a pickup in sales- which isn’t expected until sometime next year.
-
Bernanke Call too Early, Needs to Focus on Homebuilders
March 6, 2008
Bernanke's Call: Aid Homeowners | online.wsj.com
Some homeowners with the means to pay their mortgage payments are halting those payments, walking away from their homes instead, accepting that they are upside down, and choosing 7 years of bad credit over an unknown period of negative equity. If Mr. Bernanke is successful in his call to bankers- that is, lower the mortgage debt for those homeowners whose homes are worth less than their outstanding mortgage balance and “struggling” to make payments- fewer owners will likely walk from their homes in 2008. Our question to Mr. Bernanke is: what about next year? Prices are still dropping rapidly.
-
One Homebuilder's Auction and the Front Page
February 28, 2008
New-home bargains few at live auction | www.azcentral.com
Apparently, front page “news” is one way to boost new home sales. Cachet’s inventory home auction, in which the builder reportedly sold 37 of 41 homes it hoped to sell, appears to have been a huge success. New home auctions will likely gain traction in metro Phoenix in the coming months. Hopefully, it doesn’t take disparaging front page articles, like the one that drove buyers to Cachet's auction, to build upon Cachet’s success.
-
February 12, 2008
Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn | online.wsj.com
“Speculators” / investors seem to bear the brunt of criticism when discussing the downturn in residential real estate. Undeniably, this group contributed to both the rise and fall of residential real estate. However, the MBA statistics, coupled with BREC’s previous estimates of investor buyers, reflect an equal proportion of 2004 and 2005 resident buyers are being foreclosed upon. Others appear to be deserving of some of the blame for the current downturn….
-
Challenging Year Not in Question, Depth is
February 11, 2008
Housing Forecast: More Storms | online.wsj.com
Few will debate whether or not prices are actually falling; most every measurement has recently shown a decline, and with economic projections what they are, prices are expected to continue to fall. How long and how far are the questions at hand. Belfiore Real Estate Consulting (BREC) has some thoughts on the Phoenix metro area….
-
December 26, 2007
How Hot Land Sales Offset A Housing Glut in Phoenix | online.wsj.com
When Mr. Corkery wrote this article more than 2 weeks ago, the reality is few land sales were occurring in Phoenix. His timing was off: several thousand lots and option agreements are now being signed, as builder's rush to remove lots from their balance sheets prior to year-end.
-
Job Growth, 2008, and Phoenix Single-Family Demand
November 13, 2007
Mortgage Industry Needs More Layoffs, Analysts Say | www.azcentral.com
Phoenix metro area employment and population growth will slow in 2008. Consequently, so will demand for new housing, but how much will it slow? How do you forecast employment growth?
-
Credit Availability will Determine Future
November 2, 2007
Fresh Credit Worries Grip Markets | online.wsj.com
When making your determination on the future of the economy, how many units will be sold next year, or how many people will move to Phoenix, consider how banks have reacted to bad news this year; the statistics above; and how lenders may react to bad news next year.
-
Lennar, Spec Homes, and Balance
October 9, 2007
Lennar posts record quarter loss of $513.9 million | www.azcentral.com
Homebuilders are employing differing speculative inventory strategies in the market today. Lennar's is driving home prices down further. This artcile explores Lennar's strategy and other strategies being employed.
-
The Reset, the FHA's Role, and Our Neighbors
August 23, 2007
How FHA Could Help Borrowers | online.wsj.com
The FHA plan discussed in this article puts the burden of poor individual and lender decisions on the government and taxpayers, perhaps not a burden many of us believe we should be required to bear. However, considering the magnitude and the possible effect on the markets if the 2.2 million resets are remotely similar to my neighbor’s resetting rate, we might be thankful if the program is adopted in coming weeks.
- Subscribe to Updates
-
Leading institutions connect with Jim Belfiore through GLG
Most Popular Real Estate News
-
Who is kidding who regarding a recovery in commercial real estate
October 18, 2009
-
U.S. Helps Commercial Real Real Estate Lenders Pretend and Extend
October 15, 2009
-
The Jury Is Still Out On General Growth
October 8, 2009
-
FDIC to create value "mark" by selling Corus portfolio
September 24, 2009
-
The Condo-Hotel Gone Bad: A Particular Corner of Hell
August 24, 2009