Mr. Jay Thompson

GLG News by Mr. Jay Thompson, President and General Manager

Truck Order Predictions Pretty Well Laid Out Through 2010

November 19, 2009

Analysis of:Truck orders indicate pre-2010 surge | www.etrucker.com

In the midst of the optimism with the recent surge in truck orders, reality is setting back in that 2010 truck orders will be slow due to the mew emissions rules - again! We have written several articles over the last 6-months about the slow truck sales marketplace leading into the current prebuy. So here’s a look ahead....

Integrated Fuel Technologies Non-Urea SCR Option Hits A Speed-Bump

November 16, 2009

Analysis of:Cover Story: Pipe Schemes | www.seattleweekly.com

One of the two non-urea Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) developers as noted in GLG articles has legal problems prompting potential major users to steer clear for now. The referenced article by Laura Onstot for the Seattle Weekly is an interesting read including alleged money, fraud, religion, mistresses and other sorted issues - but more about business issues than the technology.

JB Hunt Intermodal Will Do Well For A Couple of BIG Reasons

November 11, 2009

Analysis of:J B Hunt (JBHT) Gets S&P 4 Star Buy Rating But Showing Bearish Technicals | www.marketintelligencecenter.com

After 20-years, Intermodal as pioneered by JB Hunt and United Parcel Service is even more of a bright spot. I share our colleague Mr. Williams’ optimism regarding Intermodal - and that for JB Hunt’s continued success therein. There are idiosyncrasies in the numbers discussed that offers an opportunity for a different look.

Class 8 Truck Prebuy Is Coming To An End - 2010 Skepticism Here!

November 6, 2009

Analysis of:Class 8 Orders See Sharp Rise From September | www.truckinginfo.com

FTR Associates President Eric Starks shows North America Class 8 October order numbers at 21,792 trucks. This is a rate more triple than we were seeing February through July of this year - ranging 6,000-8,000 per month and double the August and September numbers. My friend Eric knows the numbers better than most, so we’ll offer some customer comments as to why.

Transports Telling Different Story Than 3.6% GDP Blip!

November 2, 2009

Analysis of:Why the Lagging Transports Are Worrying | www.minyanville.com

Some stock technicians who compare numbers from the past to today are throwing more red flags regarding the recent quarters’ very positive numbers because the transports are not showing it. Transports are a good leading indicator in real time when real tonnage grows or shrinks. Shipper planning leads that of course led by true economic activity. History tells us a number of things.

Mega-Dealer Rush’s Numbers Give Insight Into Truck Sales & Service Marketplace

October 27, 2009

Analysis of:Rush's Third Quarter Impacted By Weak Sales Market | www.truckinginfo.com

Rush Enterprises, Inc. is the largest heavy & medium duty truck sales and service organization in the US. Their numbers allow us a look at the marketplace from ground level including new and used trucks, along with parts and service.

IRS v. Trucking Independent Contractor History

October 19, 2009

Analysis of:'Contractor' Lable Provokes Legal Disputes | online.wsj.com

The trucking Independent Contractor (IC) pool is a big one. Surveys show that one-third of truckers are IC’s and 80%+ of them are leased to fleets. The biggest player is FedEx Ground - hence the long-time target on their back by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), States and unions. Other big numbers come from the Intermodal sector, which is also under fire. I agree with my esteemed colleague John Schultz and offer the following overview.

LTL Freight Marketplace To Remain Troublesome

October 18, 2009

Analysis of:LTL market remains in a state of flux | www.purchasing.com

The Less-Than Truckload (LTL) sector is showing signs that freight has bottomed, but the excess capacity from old and new players in that sector continues to result in heavy discounting. This will continue well into 2010 unless something drastic happens. The accompanying article allows for some comments looking ahead.

Carbon Taxes WILL Increase Truckers Fuel Costs With NO Upside

October 14, 2009

Analysis of:Carbon controls could hike fuel costs | fleetowner.com

If the proposed carbon taxes get implemented, the costs will be way more than being preached. Just ask Kyoto signatories who would like to get out of it now. As one who is active is fuel saving programs, SmartWay and carbon reduction, we need to keep it simple.

Update: Mini-Truck Prebuy Continuing In September - Showing Up In All Classes

October 5, 2009

Analysis of:Truck Orders Continue to Rise | www.truckinginfo.com

Premier freight & truck sales forecasting firm FTR Associates is showing us North America Class 8 truck orders were 10,817 trucks - increasing month-to-month since May’s 7,400. As we noted a month ago, our financing work shows it’s more of a mini-prebuy in front of 2010-compliant engine full introduction.

Paccar - Peterbilt Nashville Plant Closure Is More Bad News For UAW

October 2, 2009

Analysis of:Peterbilt to Shutter Nashville Assembly Plant | www.truckinginfo.com

Peterbilt Div. of Paccar, Inc. announced they will permanently close its Madison, TN plant (nearby Nashville). The Peterbilt United Auto Workers (UAW) job loss numbers there are miniscule when compared to that going on in the auto industry, but at least that work is remaining within the US borders.

Mexico Cross-Border Trucking Small Visible Part Example Of Bigger Protectionism

September 25, 2009

Analysis of:Report: DOT official says no resolution to Mexico truck issue likely this year | www.thetrucker.com

There will be no decision on the Mexico cross border program until next year - according to the DOT official referenced in the source article. Of bigger concern to Congress are healthcare and highway debates, along with a needed energy policy, being green, et al - and probably followed by other protectionist issues.

Navistar Without A Big Pre-2010 Cummins Stockpile Could Be A Problem

September 18, 2009

Analysis of:Navistar CEO Peppered With Questions About Truck Engines | www.nasdaq.com

The proposed US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule limiting the number of pre-2010 Cummins engines that Navistar can stockpile has many asking what it means. From our perspective, it means problems for Navistar and Cummins. From a customer perspective with Navistar, there are the advanced-EGR questions, a 13 v. 15-Liter decision and then product performance. Then there is the question of what is next.

Navistar Is Smart To Use “S-Word” (SCR) In Their Customer Discussions Now

September 14, 2009

Analysis of:Navistar calls SCR “viable technology” | fleetowner.com

In a recent Truck Rental and Leasing Assn. (TRALA) hosted Web presentation including selective catalytic reduction (SCR), Navistar rep Tim Shick was quoted as saying “We think SCR is a very viable technology. We can’t find anything negative about it.” He also reaffirmed Navistar’s current approach of being the sole exhaust gas recirculation EGR-only manufacturer going into 2010. This is a good move, since customers have been making their intentions better known - and it hasn’t been positive.

The Mini-Truck Prebuy Is Here - Some Truckers Restocking Their Own Shelves A Bit

September 8, 2009

Analysis of:Truck Orders See Strongest Month Since November | www.truckinginfo.com

Eric Starks of FTR Associates is reporting an uptick in truck orders and attributes it to some buyers getting pre-2010 emission compliant engines. Having recently completed another summary around our work with financiers, it shows some the same, along with some how’s - and allows for an industry checkup from ground level.

Ford’s New Pickup Diesel - Hang On For The Power & Perhaps The Introduction!

September 8, 2009

Analysis of:REPORT: Ford's 6.7L Power Stroke to put out 400 HP and 725 pound-feet | green.autoblog.com

Ford Motor Company recently announced specifics regarding their new diesel engine they developed in-house. It’s got a bunch of power, but a successful product is much more than a new cool design. Many of us are pulling for the only US non-government motors player, but some loyalists are going to hit the “wait-a-while” button to see how it goes - for potentially good reason.

More California Truckers’ Road Ending In A Dead-End - Temperatures Are Rising!

September 2, 2009

Analysis of:California port truckers face deadline | www.etrucker.com

My friend Todd Dills wrote in the referenced CCJ article about how the fast-coming emissions regulations at the Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports will be enforced. There are the steep costs of equipment and noncompliance fines, but the real story involves the effect on small businesses and real people. Tempers and temperatures are rising - and it’s not from global warming. It is getting uglier at ground level.

Teamsters: YRC Worldwide Says There Are No Buyers For Regional New Penn

August 25, 2009

Analysis of:Teamsters: YRC gets little interest in New Penn | kansascity.bizjournals.com

In the referenced article, the Teamsters Union has told members that YRC Worldwide has been exploring the sale of Northeast Regional New Penn - their only profitable YRC division. Whether it’s a tactic to get the New Penn Teamsters to accept pays cuts or to really try to sell it (or both), it’s not a good omen.

Fewer Trucking Company Failures Now - In Spite Of Ourselves!

August 24, 2009

Analysis of:Trucking failures drop in 2nd quarter | www.etrucker.com

In the referenced article, Avondale Partners Senior Research Analyst Donald Broughton was noted seeing a dramatic reduction in trucking business failures in the 2nd quarter ’09 as compared to previous and year-over-year quarters. Also noted was the principal reason carriers are remaining in business - creditors are allowing otherwise insolvent companies to stay in business so that they don't have to take back used equipment. We agree that problems have slowed, but differ on some other points.

Winners in a YRCW Liquidation?

August 18, 2009

Analysis of:Sector Snap: Who will win if YRC fails? | www.seattlepi.com

In the referenced article, RBC analyst John Barnes expects the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector to continue to be a tough one - but tougher yet for YRC Worldwide. As a result, he issued an “Underperform” rating and noted “…that YRC's precarious financial position will ultimately result in its failure barring a material U.S. economic rebound." Colleague John Schultz just commented about rate expectations from a Wolfe Research LLC survey and his prognosis for YRCW, so we’ll just add some thoughts.

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