GLG News by Gregory Birge

Implications: Apple tried for many years to enter the industry world. Will they succeed with the new iPhone and SDK2.0 ?

Analysis:

At yesterday's WWDC, Steve Jobs announced a couple of new products/services that have a major impact on Apple business model.

iPhone 3G
With the 2.0 3G version and its new price of $199, Apple decided to go frontal in the war with Blackberry and attack the business environment. Full exchange compatibility and VPN servers are now provided.
For years, Apple have been trying to penetrate the business world with laptops, desktops and servers. The IT people usually are reluctant to introduce Mac-related software or unit in a closed PC world.
With the new iPhone update, it is expected to see Apple increasing its market share on that segment.
The addition of new languages, the 3G features and definitely the new price will boost iPhone sales.

Mobile Me
Mac has been criticized by some people that the service value is not enough for some of us to justify the $99 subscription fee. As far as I am concerned, I am pretty happy to be able to easily share pictures with iWeb or gallery and have a stable email address without too many spams... Mobile me goes beyond that and proposes to replicate the Microsoft Exchange features on a personal level. Automatic push emails, calendar and notes will now happen between your PC, Mac and iPhone (iPod touch? Please...)

In addition to it, a 'yousendit' feature is provided to help people to share large files. The storage capacity is extended to 20GB and you can easily share your files with a downloadable link.

The computer war Apple lost some years ago will not evolve over time. Its market share will be unlikely to go higher than 10%-15% except in some specific market or segments. However, with the increasing numbers of peripherals and solutions that are provided, Apple is continuously increasing its benefits over PC to convince consumer, pro-sumers and professionals to switch to Mac.

Implications: The Apple stock price went from $10 to $200 in less than 7 years. This is a remarkable performance but most investors are worried and would like to have insights on Apple's next move.

Analysis: Few companies like Apple can maintain such pressure on the market, set such innovative trend, induce such envy from consumers, investors, marketers alike.

So how did Apple manage this?

The first reason is because Apple is a top down company. Decisions are made in Cupertino before they are being implemented properly through the chain of countries.
 
The second reason is because Apple is a design-to-technology company. Products are not created based on technology limitations but design visions.
 
The third reason is because Apple has a strong vision and consumer knowledge. Great innovations are created and pushed through the organization.
 
Having said that, however, the company fails or can miss the mark sometimes. The Newton, the Performa, the iSight and the Apple TV are not as successful as they were supposed to be.
 
Some other product lines are doing well, but still lagging behind the industry.
Laptops sales, desktop sales are continuously increasing but the overall Apple market share on those segments is far from reaching the perceived brand image value. Should you question people on the street, they would believe Apple's market share is around 20%-30%. The reality might be closer to 5- 7%. The recent MacBook Air will certainly not change the market share, but it does help contribute to its brand image.
 
Then comes the "Holy Grail", or the new success genes of the company -  iPod, iTunes Music Store, iPhone... The company created new icons and continues to push forward limitations in designs and innovations.
 
The company does what's right: take the consumer's needs and implement them properly in new products.
 
Perspectives are positive because iTMS is lacking behind in all other countries as compared to the US. It means that European markets and Asian market have not YET experienced the full scope of Apple's solutions.
 
On the other hands, barriers to enter those markets are higher than in USA. Apple almost had a fight with Orange in France and could not find a deal with China Telecom to release the iPhone in China. iTMS is only available in Japan and is not as successful compared to the other regions.

No one can tell you how the market will react to those elements. However, we can give you the right information for you to make your own decision.

Implications: With his recent apologies, Mr. Zuckerberg had proven two things: 1) Facebook is incredibly successful and beyond expectations 2) Its advertising business model is unstable yet.

Analysis: Facebook is an incredible success from different points of view. First of all, it is amazing to see how fast the website grows.  Those young adults spend their life on Facebook exchanging and posting information.
 
I am not convinced that this success is totally controlled. It does not mean it is not deserved. It might even be the other way around. We have to acknowledge that Facebook is setting up new standards on communities' engagement. Facebook is joining Apple, Google, Nintendo and some others in the closed 'Trend-Setter' group.
 
Second, the depth of the website is increasing at an unbelievable speed. Recently, with the introduction of the Beacon advertising model, the site reached a new limit, though it might be unfortunately too far.
 
Members have signed a petition demanding to be consulted before their profiles could be accessible to advertisers. They are absolutely right. Privacy controls and spam protections are available on your PCs to prevent you from receiving too many unwanted advertisements. On the mobile phones, regulations are set up to ensure that your privacy is respected.
 
It should be the same on Facebook. People do not join Facebook to let their profiles get 'raped' and distributed freely to advertisers. Mr. Zuckerberg should know better than anyone that the community works IN the community, not outside of it. I have the right to share my profile and get money out of it ONLY if I want.
 
Promotions, advertisements are just some ways to get you the products you might need. They should not be used in an intrusive manner.
 
Hopefully, Facebook has learnt its lesson.

Learn more on consumer and technologies, visit www.f5dc.com/blog

Implications: Apology when needed, upfront is always better than after.

Analysis: This is very unique in Apple's history - Steve Jobs apologized and offered a $100 discount for the iPhone early adopters. What would this mean exactly?
 
Apple has a unique ability to create iconic products like the Apple II, the Macintosh computer, the iPod and now the iPhone. This ability comes from a couple of points:
 
- Design to engineering process
- A real consumer understanding spirit
- A top-down and straight execution with limited compromises
 
The iPhone is definitely a success. However, it is the first time the company decides to cut the price of a recently introduced product so fast and introduce another model. You can call that market reaction or apologies, in any case, it is good news that Apple is listening to its customers' requests.
 
A price-cut may reflect a new purchase-pricing in a key component. You get a better deal and you translate it for your customers. In some other cases, it reflects a market reaction to a competitor move, or a sales drop. Finally, it can announce a new model with more features for the same old price.
 
It is unlikely the company is reflecting a key component price drop as the announced iPhone price in Europe is closer to the old US pricing (399 euro in Germany is approximately $550).
 
The other possibility would be that Apple is trying to buy market shares and is willing to suffer a loss on the iPhone in order to take the lead in the market.
 
In any case, Apple would not have done this price move unless forced. It will cost the company lots of money. Not only it would be compensating early iPhone buyers $100 each, it will drop the price of iPhone by $200 and it is likely the company has to compensate the current retail inventory (if any).

Lear more on Consumer and Technologies : F5 Digital Consulting blog

Implications: Persistence is sometimes looked upon as a strength.  Persistence in a vision and carrying out effectively is necessary.  This is Apple’s model.  They have proven it with both their iPod and iPhone.  Nokia, on the other hand, is about to be persistent…yet again.  The communications giant is planning to re-launch the Nokia N-Gage series after failing twice.

Analysis: Back in 2005, N-Gage was one of the first to offer an integrated mobile phone and video game console device.  The idea was interesting and a novelty.  The younger generation opted for it as they could good quality games on their phones.

The concept of two in one devices is not new.  History and statistics tend to indicate that single application devices are more successful than integrated ones.  Integrated devices would be better off if they clearly defined its priorities.

We can already play games on our phones though there are limitations in terms of resolution, speed and genre.  The same applies to snapping photographs on our phones.  However, we accept these limitations because we understand the primary function of the device.  If you try to promote a video game console on a mobile phone, you undoubtedly risk disappointing your core audience.

Nokia learnt this lesson the hard way and will now introduce new features in their product.  For example, you do not have to remove the battery to play games.  You can play online with your friends.  You will be match to similar ranking players to avoid competing with advanced gamers.  You will even be able to demo games before purchasing it.

Will these be enough to make the third series of N-Gage into a success?  Somehow, I am skeptical because of the mere presence of PSP and Nintendo DS.  If you are a hardcore gamer, chances are you will lean towards PSP, upcoming PSP2 or even Nintendo DS.  Sony and Nintendo have produced consumer-appreciated devices in terms of size, portability, battery life and game quality.  

N-Gage, on the other hand, has been unable to match it from either a size or game titles perspective.  So if you are not a hardcore gamer or are someone who is satisfied with typical games on mobile phones, why would consider a bulkier device with limited game choices?  It will be an unlikely option for teenagers even if Nokia dropped its price. As an hardware device, N-Gage is not expected to be successful. As a service, this is another story.

However, this is a good example of lost focus.  Nokia is trying to find reasons to make N-Gage successful.  Changing the design or incorporating new features is probably going to make consumers more confused.    I hope for Nokia’s sake that I am wrong.  The missing element here is consumer insight.  Trying to hard to fulfill your desire, may only lead you to lose focus on the primary objective.


More about Consumer Electronics analysis at : http://digitalconsulting.blogspot.com/

Implications: What are the consequences related to recent Walmart / Universal announcement for the industry and the consumer ?

Analysis: Flashback : Remember the old Napster time where everyone could download illegal music without any protection. Some years after, iTunes Music Store signaled their intention to capture the online music market by selling DRM songs. And they did just that, having secured more than 70 per cent of the market share.

Let's remember that DRM did not originate from Apple but was a request by music record companies, who are reluctant to release their music catalogue for free distribution online.

Progressively, the Pandora's Box was opened.
 
EMI shot first and offered a 'more expensive’ free song with a better quality on iTMS. Now, Universal has joined the fray by allowing Wal- Mart, the biggest retailer in US, to sell music without any protection, albeit at a lower quality of 256kbps.

From a consumer’s point of view, it means that music purchased online is no different from what they’ll get from a music compact disc. There is no restriction on copying, sharing or distributing the content.

The question is: what is the repercussion on businesses?
 
We can expect a major shift in the industry in the months ahead. There is no reason why other studios will not follow suit. This will probably impact the sales performance of the iTunes Music Store as well.

There are several options:

- All online retailer will drop their DRM
This will include Apple, which could translate into an increased in the potential sales for iPods capable of reading music without protection. It also points to a complete rethinking of the iTunes Music Store that is currently tied up exclusively with iPod. In such a case, all MP3 players will be able to download music from iTunes.

- Market will be segmented
Some stores and record companies will continue to sell DRM songs. Among these, some DRM songs will be released, while others will be marketed as part of dedicated packages. These packages could promise higher quality encoding for more value, or offer different price alternatives. I sincerely hope it will not happen. This will create confusion for the consumer and affect sales. The only winner will be the illegal music pirates who continue to peddle free downloads.

- DRM will be dropped, BUT
Under the pressure of music studios, some players like Apple might drop the DRM system. But it is likely to strength tie-ups between iPod and the iTunes Music Store. Microsoft is expected to do same with Zune and Sony with its own player. This is not the best of outcomes. Unfortunately, history speaks for itself and the consumer will find themselves back to square one.

So, what do we want?

Customers want to be able to download good quality songs to our music system or portable player. We agree to pay, much like the way we pay for a CD or a DVD, but YOU, the industry, have to ensure we can play it on all our devices.
 
More on Digital and Technologies : http://digitalconsulting.blogspot.com/

Implications: What could have motivated Microsoft to cut the price of their X Box?

Analysis: As a marketer, the last thing you tell your management to do is to cut price of your product. Despite the expected generated sales increase, it might generate more downsides that expected:

- Your product is losing added value
- You give the market a signal your sales might not be as good as expected
- You have to compensate for the retail stock
- It might announce a new product coming soon

In addition to those points, the timing of such a price cut is extremely critical. While some of us could agree a price cut for the back to school season is a good idea, some others will argue it was not needed because of the future Halo 3 release and the recent Elite version announcement.

Cutting the xBox prices drives more negative attention than expected. Sony PS3 is still more expensive and suffering from sales issues and Nintendo Wii still leads the market. This price cut will not have a significant impact to change it.

Maybe should we understand that the Elite sales are lower than expected...

Implications: The much hyped and talked about iPhone finally hits the stores.  The American stores for now.  Hundreds of eager people queued days ahead of the launch, many even paying others to queue for them.

Analysis: The iPhone is not just a mobile phone but MP3 player, camera and web browser all rolled into a ‘sexy’ looking device.  Then again, there are many other similar devices already in the market, all vying to be your ultimate all-in-one gadget.

The question that begs to be answered: Will Apple succeed where many other brands failed?

Let’s look and the iPhone feature by feature and see if we can predict the outcome.

Music Player
The iPhone offers one of the best integrated music player as it rides on the same iPod interface. It behaves like a real iPod and has a seamless synchronization with your computer.  However, unlike the iPod, its storage capacity is currently  limited to 8GB.  We can probably expect Apple to introduce higher capacity iPhones closer to the holiday seasons when the Flash memory capacity storage will increase.

This alone will draw many Apple and iPod fans alike to purchase an iPhone.

Camera
Being in control of its own ecosystem, Apple enable users to transfer pictures from their phone to a computer with relative ease.  The built-in iTunes will serve as a multimedia manager not just for songs but digital pictures as well.

Phone
The iPhone has been hailed as revolutionary and rightly so.  Though many of its advanced features are currently tailor-made to work between Apple and AT&T, it is only a matter of time before other operators both in US and internationally join in the game!

Internet Browser
Its not only the in-built Safari browser that allows you surf via wireless or GPRS connections which is amazing but its automatic screen rotation.  You can even zoom in and out using Minority Report’s gesture control.  Unfortunately, websites are becoming more sophisticated and require a lot of resources.  A majority of these websites are not designed for surfing through mobile phones yet.

Emails
As with other devices, the iPhone allows you to check emails.  We probably need to see how the security system works is compatible with major professional emailing and VPN systems.

As mentioned earlier, the all-in-one concept is not new. PIMs (Personal Information Manager), as it is commonly known, has been around for some time.  New technologies continue to be embedded or some would claim invade mobile phones.  Does this mean one will stop using dedicated devices?  I highly doubt so.

Both the all-in-one and dedicated devices serve specific needs of consumers and will continue to do just that.  The market is large enough for it to flourish.  Business users, who rely on a WM5 or Blackberry device, may still own the iPhone as a multimedia companion.  For the Mac user, the iPhone helps complete the digital hub.  For students, it probably will be the ultimate ‘cool’ or in thing to own an iPhone despite costing over US$1500 for a 2-year contract.

The iPhone goes beyond its claimed list of features.  After the PSX (PlayStation 1), after the iPod, after the PSP, after the Wii…the iPhone is the new product in the list of ‘must haves’.  Forget any rationale on whether you should or should not get the iPhone.  .

At the end it does not really It doesn’t really matter. After all, the only difference between men and boys is the price of their ‘toys’

Learn more : http://digitalconsulting.blogspot.com/

Implications: What will make the iPhone a success or a failure ? Will it repeat the iPod success story ?

Analysis:

iPhone – Apple’s newest flagship product is set to debut soon. After the phenomenal success with iPod, Apple is prepared to venture into the mobile space.

The iPod and iPhone share not only similar features but ‘genes’ as well. They were designed by people who truly understand consumer needs and placed emphasis on design rather than just technology.

This ‘thinking’ and approach is probably the main factors that fuelled iPod to such greatness and why competition lagged behind. Many others simply went out bought high capacity hard drives or Flash memory, engaged a low cost design firm in China and produced MP3 players. However, though many of these MP3 players had more sophisticated features, it failed to compete with iPod.

iPod succeeded because it provided more than just a player. It integrated hardware, software and content. It essentially had its own eco-system.

The iPhone is likely to embark on a journey. Apple is building strong connections with network operators to build a sustainable ecosystem. However, operators and content providers are independent and thus Apple will not have full control. This is one of the reasons why Apple took such long time before entering the mobile phone market. They needed to ensure that all parties in the eco-system could provide the require backbone to support its phone features.

The iPod story is a key lesson for all current and aspiring Apple competitors. Do not simple launch a fully featured or touch screen phone, it will not be able to compete with iPhone.

The iPod and iPhone are like myths and it will go down in history for good reasons.

Implications: Many companies are releasing NAND flashed notebooks, we can predict an increased number of such products in future.

Analysis: The first A Brand company to release a NAND Flash notebook was Sony with the VGN-UX series like the UX180P model. Other companies like Palm and Asus (just announced the EeePC) are following the trend and we can expect more products in future.

NAND Flashed computers benefits are:
- Faster bootable time
- Shock proof
- Reduced physical foot print that will allow to reduce laptop form factor
- Extended battery life time based on lower consumption
- Faster information access time

Cons:
- Size limitation compared to OS and software storage needs
- Cost for high capacity memory

In the short term two new product categories are expected to emerge:
1) NAND Flash laptops
Those products will focus on battery life, size, wireless connectivity

2) NAND Flash + HDD Laptops or Desktops
The NAND Flash will be probably used to speed up the boot time and allow a faster resume time. New laptops will as well be able to be used as a media player while they are turned off.

It is expected to see more and more products taking benefits of this new technology. However, in order to succeed, company should continue to focus on consumer needs and not the technology.

Learn more :
 http://digitalconsulting.blogspot.com/2007/04/mobility-needs-drive-sales-not.html

Implications: Foleo laptop seems to be a great concept. Is it really innovative and will it help to get Palm back to success ? Palm is currently under pressure and is loosing market shares. The recent introduction of the Palm Treo on a windows based OS was already a major shift in Palm strategy. Will Foleo bring new success to the company ?

Analysis: One would probably be impressed by the Foleo concept if you go to the Palm website and check their product demo.

It seems to be the ideal solution for everyone who is looking for a way to stay connected through emails and internet. The Foleo has a comfortable screen, large enough to ease reading and surfing, it comes with a real keyboard, it can download Office files, it is very light, it has a long battery life, it is embedded with wireless technologies and can boot up instantly thanks to the flash memory storage.

However, despite it seems to be the ideal travel companion, the Foleo fails to really convince about its concept on several points :
- No touch screen
- No simcard embedded
- Expensive price
- Positioning does not answer totally its target audience needs

Let's review some scenarios :

1) Businemen
Business travelers are already equipped with a laptop, most probably a light unit (up to 14") and a email enabled mobile phone. It is unlikely that they will sacrifice their phone or their laptops to the Foleo. It is difficult to believe they will as well carry a third mobile unit.

2) Students
Most of students nowadays carry a mid range laptop, a phone with multimedia capability. They might be attracted by the Foleo promises. However, it is unlikely they could afford a Foleo that cost almost the same price as a second hand laptop.

3) Family
The Foleo could be considered as well as an Home product, to surf internet and check emails easily. However, the price of this unit would probably turned down most of purchase intentions.

It is difficult at this point of time to predict a great success to the Foleo. We might expect this product to be successful to a limited audience, fan of mobility, high tech, with high income.

The Foleo failed to convince that it really answer the consumer needs. It would have been interested to add a simcard chip and of course to lower its price positioning.

However, we have to acknowledge that the Foleo shows a new trend on mobile computing and could hope that future product will really answer consumer needs. Let's recognize Palm efforts to try to break in that new segment.

Learn more :
http://digitalconsulting.blogspot.com/2007/04/mobility-needs-drive-sales-not.html

Implications: There has been significantly important information circulated recently on Sony’s PS3. First, Sony’s is discontinuing the 20GB version of the PS3 and introduced an 80GB for Korean market only. Then the rumor mills are churning with that Sony plans to cut prices of PS3. Is this a natural product evolution cycle or a defensive move that may relate to sales?  

Analysis: Sony operates like any other company; they abide by the manufacturing and industry rules. The rules of the gaming industry was defined almost 15 years ago when Sony unveiled its PS1. Consoles were sold below cost but good margins made on software. As production capacity increased, consumers enjoyed further price cuts on the console. This was obviously made possible by reduction of key production material costs.

Industry rules are generally driven by product roadmaps and component costs. Both new and End-Of-Line(EOL) models are decided in advance taking into consideration market demands, competition and component roadmaps. Manufacturers negotiate with suppliers in advance to secure production materials suppliers at low prices. Finally, various components and price combinations are evaluated to determine the one that best suits the market and consumer needs whilst preserving a profit margin for the company.

The question then arises as to why new models are being introduced 6 months after the first.

Such product changes usually happen, they do not happen usually so fast.

During the launch of PS3 in Europe, Sony announced that 600,000 units were sold in 2 days. This was view as a disappointing launch from a event perspective (source: TF1, LCI, Launch of Playstation 3 in France). If sales to do meet expectations, it is crucial for manufacturers to make quick decisive measures based on market needs. In this case, consumers opted to purchase the 60GB version of PS3 as the price difference with the 20GB unit was $100 only. The 60GB unit came equipped with Wifi capabilities as well. We can safely assume that the entry-level unit was meant to drive people to stores.

Another possible factor is the contract between Sony and its hard drive suppliers. Component issues or shortages would mean Sony has to review its product roadmap. Sony announced that the demand for its 60GB unit is much higher and they are assessing how best to address the consumer needs. However, the fact that the 20GB units are discontinued is not good news at all.

PS3 is one of the best and most powerful gaming unit in the market today. The question is whether Sony has found its right audience.

Microsoft’s XBOX is continuously increasing its presence in the market. I am not referring to market shares but ‘love shares’ and ‘technological shares’. Their games are getting better and providing new experiences for the consumers. GRAW II and Halo III is an example. It has even introduced the HD DVD and an Elite edition XBOX 360 with HD support. In addition, they are now binding the console with Home Theater, taking the fight full on with Sony. More recently, they announced linking XBOX with Windows Live Messenger, which is definitely a good way to attract additional audiences.

Let not overlook Nintendo’s Wii. Nintendo continues to produce great games for gamers. They focus less on technology compared to its competitors. They fight on a different front. Nintendo survived with its GameBoy while many of competitors folded or faded away. Lynx from Atari, GameGear from Sega and the fantastic portable PC Engine from NEC are now all defunct. Nintendo continues with its success on Nintendo DS and now Wii is making heads turn and raking up the cash register. This is despite they fact that Wii has nether great games nor HD or Blue Ray support. It does have, however, games that entertain.

So where does Sony fit into all of this? The Blue Ray battle that has started on the Home Theater market will be fierce but Sony using the PS3 as a primary advantage to promote its format. By introducing entry-level units, it is enticing consumers to take up its format. Discontinuing the 20GB unit, may displace Sony from some markets. Unless Sony immediately introduces a higher capacity PS3 model at a lower cost.

Some of the more recent announcements seem to suggest that Sony is taking greater defensive actions. Though PS3 may not be as successful as they anticipated, it appears the new PSP model will help strengthen its dominance. Sony has to continue to innovate to survive. It cannot afford to lose the battle in the HD format as they did in the Betamax many years ago.

We can probably expect Sony to react aggressively in the coming months and years. The PS3 is just one of its ammunition from the arsenal. Hang on, sit tight…the battle is getting interesting.

Implications:

Creative new product Zen Stone is the new tentative from the company to come back to profitability. Last fiscal quarter results show a drop of $40 Million revenue compared to last year ($183.8 versus $225.7).

Creative needs to find its own gene to renew with success.

Analysis: How to succeed against Apple ? How to come back to profitability ? What product should a company create in order to try to bring its sales closer to the 10 000 000 iPods shipped during last quarter ?

When Apple stock sky rocket to $100.40 , reaching his highest level for the past 10 years, Creative stocks dropped from $31.75 in March 2000 to $5.91. The market sanction is tough, the lesson to learn tougher. However, one should acknowledge the number 2 position of Creative Labs in terms of sales.

Manufacturing an MP3 player is easy. Technology becomes affordable, design shop houses are opening at every corner of the street to propose the 'iPod killer' design to any manufacturer, software is know. So , why is it so difficult to find the iPod, why is it difficult to get profitable on that market ?

First of all, more than on any other market, margins are tight, really tight. Accurate distribution process, strict inventory control, proper component prices are some of the key elements that can turn your 'gold mine' products into a financial disaster for your company. For a product sold at $99, it is not rare to have a margin around 5%. When you have to consider the taxes, import duties, shipment and retail margin, any swing in market price, key component, inventory is extremely dangerous. Driving profitable MP3 sales is becoming a exercise close to driving an F1 formula.

A key success element comes through your product creation. However, companies like Creative Labs need to make choices. How to you want to fight Apple ? Choose your battle and strategy and stick to it. When you have an opponent as strong as Apple in front of you, the direct and frontal attack rarely succeeds. It might hurt from time to time, disturb you but it is unlikely it is going to win over the long run.

Trying to fight Apple can be assimilated to a judo fight. Use your opponent strength against him. If your opponent is stronger and heavier, be faster and smoother. Make him swing until he falls on the floor.

Apple does not succeed only because iPod is better designed, integrated with iTunes or properly supported by the music industry. iPod is becoming a generic name, an icon. People want to buy an iPod regardless of your technology or your price.

It is not because you will offer a $10 cheaper product than iPod that you will sell it. It is not because you offer an higher capacity product than the iPod that you you will sell more. The result will only be a drop in your margin.

Creative new product Zen Stone is a nice designed product. However, will it capture the iPod shuffle product market ? It will certainly capture some sales and take some market shares from other competitors but will not shuffle the iPod supremacy.

Find your genes, use your opponent's strength to renew with success.

Implications: Microsoft just announced that it will be making Live Messenger available through the xBox 360 game console. This move is a reflection of the long ongoing battle which started more than 10 years ago to control the Digital Home market.

Analysis:

This announcement indicates that though the battle for the Digital Home continues, it has moved from the living room to the mobility sector and new weapons introduced.

In previous time, similar industries, for example PC or Consumer Electronics, would be fighting a ‘war’ among themselves. Then a decade ago, people started talking about convergence. This was essentially a declaration of war by the PC manufacturers who decided to invade the living room territory controlled by CE manufacturers.

10 years on, there are still no winners. However, two companies Apple and Sony have clearly taken the lead even though they hail from opposing sides. One from the computer industry whilst the other from the Consumer Electronic industry.

Apple is promoting itself from the ‘Digital Hub’ angle. For Apple, the lifestyle centers around the computer and all your digital peripherals are connected through it. The computer is used as a central storage location.

Progressively, Apple is adding components to its digital hub and moving towards the Multimedia entertainment.
It has made numerous announcements over the years but there are 6 very important ones:
1st : Easy connection through all your digital peripherals.
2nd : Release of the iPod, to manage your digital music collection on the go.
3rd : Release of iLife, to manage your digital life (pictures, movies, DVDs) easily.
4^th , : Release of the iPod new generation with Pictures, Movies support.
5^th : Release of the iTV, to centrally control your digital life from your TV set.
6^th : Announcement of the iPhone, to allow interoperability between communication and mobility

Sony is coming from the consumer electronic universe. Computerized technologies are integrated in order to contain the consumer in the Sony Ecosystem.
1^st : Integration of a unique interface (iLink) with HiFi components
2^nd : Creation of new media to facilitate easy to share between devices. The DAT and MD failed. The UMD and Blue Ray Disc are their new bets.
3^rd : Creation of the Memorystick, a uniformed media storage for digital elements across Sony products
4^th : Release of the first Playstation, that revolutionized the gaming industry (from both a technology and business point of view)
5^th : Release of the PSP, the ultimate technological portable entertainment system.
6^th : Release of the PlayStation 3, bonding video games with HD / Home Cinema.
7^th : Announcement of Sony Home, a central storage place where you can share all your digital life through the Playstation 3.

Companies continue to fight this battle but none are emerging as a clear winner yet. Most of them lag behind Sony and Apple. However, some of them are extremely strong in technologies (Phillips for example) and some of them have good products (Samsung for example). Nevertheless, they fail to share the same success as Sony and Apple. Sony and Apple managed to find that extra ‘little something’ which made the difference. They understood how consumers needs and how they interacted. Other companies either attempted to copy this success or flooded the market with product imitations to gain market shares.

What about Microsoft? In this battle field, Microsoft has the most powerful army but at times failed to launch a coordinated and timeline attack.

The Windows Media Center seemed to be the right move to try to convince the consumers to setup a computer in the living room. However, the complexity and the lack of services at that time contributed to its failure. WMC is now embedded in Windows Vista OS and will hopefully be more successful.

It is also surprising to see Microsoft late arrival to the digital music battle. Zune was Microsoft’s response to Apple’s iPod. It is even more surprising to witness their inability to create sustainable technology. Last year, Urge, supported by PlayForSure technology, was created with the support of famous artists (i.e. Justin Timberlake) and MTV. MTV was supposed to be the ‘cool’ version of iTunes and create a new way to download and share digital music. PlaysForSure technology was intended to be shared among all manufacturers and music stores to allow interoperability among consumers. It failed to materialize. One can probably attribute it to a lack of communication and marketing support from Microsoft. PlaysForSure was promoted through retail stores in USA and manufactures who tried to create a new label similar to ‘Intel inside’. There was also a lack of direct communication from Microsoft to consumers, convincing them to go in the stores and ask for a ‘PlaysForSure’ product. Ironically, Zune does not support PlayForSure.

So, what should we think about the latest announcement from Microsoft on Live Messenger? This is a clever strategic move that may propel its future success in the digital home battle.

Most major companies are now linking mobility to entertainment and digital home. PSP can be hooked up to PS3 and ‘Sony Home’ to allow digital gaming transfer and upload of content. Nintendo DS is linked to Nintendo Wii and can share mini games. So far, these moves do not have strategic or financial impact but will help cement its position as a leader in the digital home battle.

By linking xBox users to windows live messenger, Microsoft is moving in the right direction :
- Connecting users from various databases
- Providing mobility at home in order to increase the consumer experience
- linking games with chat

This is a right move and consistent with its other major initiatives. One was to allow consumer to connect its iPod to xBox 360 and play his own music while playing video games. The second was to create a new label Game for windows and allow consumer to interact between video games and PC.

In this digital home battle, the various actors are fighting for the control of the Digital Home and the mobility. Any initiatives to merge technologies and bind consumer is a good move and Microsoft proved they can overcome internal challenges to create future winning platforms.

Let’s see how consumers will react .

Implications:

The rising sales of notebook (out performing desktop figures for the first time) and growing at a rate of 25% this year, is expected to be sustained over time (Source: Consumer Electronics Association).

The important consideration here is not merely technology but what consumer need is being answered.

Analysis:

Notebook sales continue to grow and it extends to both the consumer and business segments.

Most of businesses will continue to use laptops primarily because of its mobility needs. Generally, only backroom operation personnel, interns, administration staff and designers require desktops.

Businesses tend to restrict notebooks purchases from selected vendors to ensure cost savings and IT support. In that respect, the selection of future laptops for businesses is much easier compared to consumers’.

Depending on the type of business and level of mobility required, you would typically base you purchase decision on criterions such as screen size, weight and the battery life. These criteria directly answer their mobility needs. Other factors such as CPU speed, HDD size, memory are still important but are merely supporting the technology needed for your needs. In some instances, you may decide to upgrade the memory and/or hard disk capacity. However, the decision to upgrade is generally fuelled by the requirements of the OS and software applications.

As long as business mobility needs continue to grow, laptops sales supersede desktop figures. Manufacturers will continue to add more technologies into their laptops to differentiate their products as businesses will look for more security, more connections, and greater mobility than ever before.

However, some new product concepts will continue to serve a niche markets as it doesn’t completely answer the audience's needs. For example, UMPC is a great technology to showcase, but do you really need it? It is too small to allow anyone to type long emails and too big to be carried in your pocket. Tablet laptops are great but the system often hangs and is definitely not as flexible as your traditional pen and paper. Finally, ultra light notebooks may be ideal for heavy business travelers but the high cost remains a major obstacle. Nevertheless, these niche segments provide a good opportunity to showcase good technology and eventually some may succeed.

In the consumer market, purchase criterias are slightly different.

It is still a real challenge for consumers’ to choose which laptop to purchase. Besides the number of brands, decision making is made harder by the fact that new models are being introduced and older ones discontinued almost every three to six months.

We can probably identify 3 key segments in the market :

1) Undecided consumer who may be a first time buyerThis person will go for price. They are usually not brand sensitive, and will be attracted by special offers. They may look for a end of life or secondhand product with limited mobility.

2) Decided consumer who may be a first time buyer laptopThese group tend to have specific needs. They may want a notebook for studying, for working at home, for their kids, for sharing pictures., games, multimedia, etc. They generally will seek recommendations from sales personnel or experts.They will go for the model that directly answer their needs

3) Decided consumer but not first time buyerThis group of consumers’ usually has an existing laptop or desktop. Through the years of usage, they tend to have some knowledge and experience on personal computers. Brand loyalty and sensitivity are common traits. This is a primary target audience for laptop manufacturers, they are loyal to the brand.

What is the trade off? What are you willing to sacrifice when you choose a laptop over desktop to gain mobility? Everything comes at a cost. Manufacturers who can segment their offer and their product range will continue to win. However, they should not overlook the fact that the needs drive the sales, not the technology.

Implications: Steve Jobs commented yesterday that he would not hold a parallel at all between the video industry and the music industry. It is not surprising that there is no rush to open DRM for video.

Analysis:

In our earlier article, we mentioned that the music revolution phase II has started (http://news.glgroup.com/cm/Analysis/Logs.aspx?a=p&lid=3503&pid=10090).

It is true we can question what will happen about the video. Let's now be realistic and reasonable.

We can always debate on the illusion and wish to live in a society where products such as videos and audio are free. Will such a debate be of any consequence?

We are living in a world driven by rules, economics, constraints, both financial and technical. It is amazing to see so much debate arising as a result of internet and the new digital revolution.

Regardless of whether the audio or video is produced on tape, DVD, broadcasted on radio or made available online, the content remains the same. The only difference is the medium that is used to allow the consumer to access it. In the past, (the hardware time versus the internet time), you needed to go to a shop and buy a movie. If you decided to give a free copy to your friend, you would have to find a way copy it. Most were aware that making copies for reasons other personal backup, was illegal . These restrictions make sense, as the artists and the record companies need to protect themselves against free distribution.

In my opinion, Steve Jobs is absolutely right in his statement that the concept of DRM-free audio cannot be completely applied to video. There are just too many differences from technology to business, including from consumers’ point of view that videos can now be freely distributed.

New distribution systems are now being introduced. Various factors will influence the type of system developed to deliver audio and video. Some factors may include the type of content (e.g. movie, music video, audio book, etc), and length (e.g. trailer vs full length). Another important consideration is how the content will be consumed. For example, will it be used primarily at home through devices such as the home theater system, computer, etc or if it is mean to be used while mobile ? Consumption while being mobile may also vary, as it depends on how and where will be used.

Video on Demand (VOD) is already available to consumers and newer ways to distribute content are being explored. What is the ultimate goal ? Definitely to generate additional revenue for companies and also to satisfy the consumers’ need mobility and virtualization. This goal is not necessarily by choice, because traditional channels of content distributions are suffering.

Consumers needs will only increase.They want more and faster access to unrestricted content.Providers will want to cash in on these needs.The bottom line is that everything comes at a cost and requires time for technology to be developed. We can either continue to live in a dream world or face the reality we need to accommodate current standards.

The industry and professional are working on answering ‘our’ needs. In the meantime, let's be patient and take one step at a time.I am sure that in time, the lines between that dream world and reality will be blurred.

Implications: Are we entering the phase II of the Digital Music revolution ?

After releasing the iPod, launching the iTunes Music Store and capturing almost 80% of the digital market, Apple is now answering some specialists scepticism on digital music by releasing free DRM music on iTMS (iTunes Music Store).

Is it just an evolution or the era of a new revolution ?

Analysis: EMI just announced they will be releasing a major part of their catalog through a free DRM system on iTunes Music Store from May. The songs will be sold at a more expensive price ($1.29 instead of $0.99) but will be encoded at 256kpps AAC instead of the regular 128kbps for the other songs.

Is it the start of the Digital Music revolution, phase II ?

The first wave started in November 2001 when Apple introduced the iPod. It was the first time a company really understood consumer needs and introduced a music player, made for consumer by 'people-thinking consumer' to answer one need : listen music seamlessly without reading a 10 pages owner's manual.

However, it is only in April 2003 when iTunes introduced for the first time a seamless approach for digital music download that the 'in depth' revolution has started.

This ecosystem mastered not only the software (iTunes), the hardware (iPod), the OS (Mac OS X) and the content (the music). Consumer were finally offered a viable choice to download digital music without violating the law and the artist rights.

April 2007, almost 4 years after releasing the iTunes Music Store, the consumer will now be able to pay for 'free music' without protection.

What are we talking about ?
From a technical point of view, the DRM is a digital locker, requested by record companies, to protect the song from being copied between multiple computers and multiple devices.

One could argue the system does not make sense, that the music is free when it is posted on internet and we should not pay for it. We must not overlook the fact that without the DRM system, consumers may not have add the opportunity to enjoy legal on line music.
This DRM system does not differ from any other locking system that is applied from industry on various formats or technologies.

All music store have unique DRM and for the inconvenience of the consumer, they do not share the same lock. Music bought on a specific store is not compatible with another store and same goes with the player. Even the latest released Zune player for Microsoft is not compatible with the in house initiative 'Playsforsure' that tried to unify the DRM around one camp (digital player manufacturers + music content + Microsoft) against the iPod-iTunes alliance.

By removing this DRM, consumers will be able to share content with anyone else, regardless of platform or devices.  It means people will be able to buy music on an iPod and, play that same song on another device (but not through iTunes).

Is Apple taking a risk ? No, Apple is again leading the revolution. This move could see increased revenue for the company while its competitors continue a price war. Most importantly, it will benefits the market, the consumer and the investors. This abolishes the views of many critics on the closed Apple - iPod - iTunes ecosystem.

Now, there will be questions that still need to be answered.

1) Will it be available to other regions ? When ?
We can expect this to be introduced to US market first. Music rights are usually managed locally, so how will the other regions be impacted and at what cost ? Let's not forget that there are still many regions not covered by the iTunes Music Store to date. At the same time, there are some regions which do not have the full service (for example video download).

2) Other labels ?
EMI has opened a hole in the DRM fortress, we can bet that other labels will follow. They will not only see the opportunity for additional revenue, but the ability to be closer to their audience. Most probably, they might not have other choice than to follow the others in that battle.

3) Consumer reaction ?
What now will be the consumer reaction ? Is he going to spend more money for having a free DRM ?
iPod - iTunes users are divided in two categories. The first one are the 'Apple fans'. Whatever happens, they will remain loyal to the brand.  They will probably upgrade some of their songs, to try the system, promote it and listen to the sound quality difference. Not only AAC is already more qualitative than MP3, but doubling the bit rate to 512kbps will definitively make a difference.
The second category is the mass market. Progressively, they will prefer to buy non protected songs because they will like the freedom.

4) Video impact
Will this system be adopted by the video industry ?  Probably yes but not in the short term. The video market download is really immature today. Consumer have a different attitude compared to audio. You normally listen to music multiple times whilst you hardly watch a video as often. Secondly, listening to music can be a passive activity while watching a movie requires full focus.There are more reasons that will prevent to movie industry to follow the same system immediately. For example, the size of the file and the financial impacts related to Cinema, DVD, Blue Ray Disc and HD DVD are many hurdles that need to be overcome.

The above points are not part of a natural evolution of the digital market. A complete new revolution is now happening. Selling free DRM songs a couple of years ago was just not possible. Let's not underestimate the impact it will have on the market, on the industry and the consumer.

The revolution of the digital market phase II is on and is not over.