Contributing Member of the Financial & Business Services Councils

GLG News by this Author

Sifting In Search of Bounce Backs Is Perilous

January 17, 2008

Analysis of:Banks' Dim 4Q Results Roll in Next Week | biz.yahoo.com

This article documents the eagerness with which investors are seeking a rationale for buying bank stocks.  At the same time, it acknowledges that the quality of assets remains questionable.

With ILC Bill in Limbo, Options Are Open To Commercial Firms

January 4, 2008

Analysis of:ILC Bill's Prospects Wane as Sense of Urgency Fades | www.americanbanker.com

1.  The article sets forth the status of pending legislation to restrict the power of the FDIC to charter ILCs owned by commercial firms. 2.  A moratorium on approval of such charters by the FDIC set to expire on January 31 will probably be allowed to expire, but the effect on the willingness of the FDIC to act on or accept applications is unclear. 3.  Companies that might benefit from owning or affiliating with an ILC should evaluate the opportunities that may be presented by the current state of uncertainty. 4.  Once the election takes place in November, which is likely to produce a Democratic president and an enhanced Democratic control of Congress, options will be more limited, and the window may close indefinitely.

This Is Not Convincing

December 10, 2007

Analysis of:Friedman, Billings Analyst Cuts Target Price on Wells Fargo on Expected Loan Losses | biz.yahoo.com

This provision looks conservative, and not in a good way. If the realists are even close to right, there is much more to come.

What Has Changed Since Enron?

December 7, 2007

Analysis of:No Sign of `Sell' on Wall Street as Analysts Say: `Buy,' `Hold' | www.bloomberg.com

Among the complaints in the aftermath of the Enron scandals was that the analysts had continued to recommend this and other stocks that cratered, and that recommendations were given in code, so maybe Market Perform really meant Sell, and Hold might mean Sell Short, except that analysts would hardly ever recommend a sale, let alone a short.

Confusion Reigns as Capitol Hill Awaits Details of Plan

December 6, 2007

Analysis of:Housing Mess Forces White House Reversal | biz.yahoo.com

At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing today, confustion reigned as to what the effects would be on a host of affected parties of proposals by Sens. Durbin and Specter to alter the terms of mortgages to assist homeowners facing foreclosure by offering an alternative through the Bankruptcy process.

Don't Try To Count the White House Reversals

December 4, 2007

Analysis of:Housing Mess Forces White House Reversal | biz.yahoo.com

Administration positions have a short shelf life, for at least three reasons: 1.  At any given time, they don't know where they are. 2.  There are too many actors who are on the loose.  The best example is Bernanke coming out with a "plan" that Schumer immediately accepted, but Lockhart hadn't been consulted, so in just a few days it seems to have vanished - poof. 3.  They don't know where they're going, just trying to improvise for the news cycle.

S&L Debacle Is Repeating

December 4, 2007

Analysis of:Did Wal-Mart Crics Make Their Case at Hearings? | www.americanbanker.com

I wholeheartedly agree that as the crisis in Subprime plays out, we will see a repeat of everything that happened during the S&L debacle.  I never believed, even as I heard assurances from Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, that it would never happen again.

Bank Accounting - Who Knows?

December 4, 2007

Analysis of:Banks to remain profitable in 2008 | www.businessweek.com

Can banks report profits while still being insolvent? This question may come into play as rolling writedowns play out over the next five years or so. However, banks enjoy special accounting rules that are under continuous review by the standard-setting bodies in the US and EU, and the regulatory authorities are using a number of devices to delay recognition of losses due to SIVs and ABCP.

Company Complains of Precipitous S&P Action

November 30, 2007

Analysis of:UPDATE 2-S&P may cut ACA Financial Guaranty debt from "A" | today.reuters.com

Two points should be considered: 1. Reputation of rating agencies for tardy downgrades. 2. Performance of ACA stock.

Soft Spots in GSE Case

November 21, 2007

Analysis of:Fannie Mae Declines on Concern About Credit Losses | www.bloomberg.com

This article illustrates the ongoing problems at the GSEs, juxtaposed against continued claims by some analysts that they are well run and the problems are behind them.

Cultural Differences Between Securities Firms and Money Center Banks

November 21, 2007

Analysis of:Goldman Held Bigger Level 3 Share Than Citi, Merrill | www.bloomberg.com

Keynes said that banks are trend followers that, if they are prudent, will go bust when their customers do. Securities firms are more comfortable with the discipline of marking to market and less likely to take advantage of opportunities to defer recognition of declines in asset valuations.

Rating Agencies Criticized for Tardy Downgrades

November 21, 2007

Analysis of:SIV Managers Don't Expect Model to Survive Slump | www.bloomberg.com

As with the Enron class of failures, critics are asking why the rating agencies come along with massive downgrades after the entities have cratered.

Monolines Have No Federal regulator

November 20, 2007

Analysis of:MBIA, Ambac Downgrades May Cost Market $200 Billion | www.bloomberg.com

Speculation centers around when the rating agencies might act to require more credit enhancement. There is no federal regulator to perform the function of safety and soundness and capital regulation, however poorly this is administered by banking regulators.

Role of Dollar in this Analysis

November 20, 2007

Analysis of:Why $100 Oil Can't Float | online.wsj.com

This looks like a solid presentation of the case. The only area that I'm qualified to comment on is #9, and here the question is the pressure US monetary policy is under given another unsustainable trend, the Current Account Deficit.

Previous Page : 1221 to 34 of 34