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U.S. Helps Commercial Real Real Estate Lenders Pretend and Extend

October 15, 2009

Analysis of:U.S. Will Set Guidelines to Modify Commercial Real-Estate Loans | www.bloomberg.com

FDIC published guidelines to help banks modify commercial real estate loans: help save us from this "help".

More investment sales transactions in 2009? Yes,but commercial brokerage won't benefit.

November 19, 2008

Analysis of:Inertia of Buyers and Sellers to End in 2009, Predicts Grubb & Ellis | nreionline.com

2009 investment property sales will likely climb over 2008 levels due to vulture funds purchasing debt and equity directly from lenders. However, commercial real estate brokerage companies will be disintermediated as funds deal directly with lenders. To survive the next couple of years, the commercial services firms should focus on providing critical support services to purchasers.

US Commercial Market Offers Opportunity For Buyers In Front of the Herd

September 22, 2008

Analysis of:NATIONAL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VACANCY RATE FLAT; EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY BY FIRST QUARTER 2010 | www.exchangemagazine.com

It is reasonable to assume that the once the fearfulness is calmed and residential foreclosures and the credit markets are stabilized, the commercial property market will move up close behind residential, probably within a year. Cap rate and rental rate pressure started showing up in second quarter of 2007, a year after the residential market stalled. Until then, "irrational exuberance" was evident in 5% to 7% cap rates and low cash flow returns. Now is the time to buy if you think the residential market will stabilize in 2009, and you want to be out in front of the crowd. Pragmatism has become evident among sellers, painful as that is. Commercial lenders do not want to own commercial real estate assets and are making deals.

ST JOE ACTION RESPONSE TO DOWNTURN OR JUST GOOD BUSINESS?

October 10, 2007

Analysis of:St. Joe Cuts Its Dividend and Payroll | online.wsj.com

WSJ writer Michael Corkery characterization of St. Joe's October 8th announcement is facile but faulty. St. Joe's strategy of monetizing over 1 million acres of land requires flexibility in a changing market but does not support the "Is Florida Over" hypothesis in the September 29th WSJ. Entitled land is a strong real estate asset that will increase in value as citizens resist further development. JOE is making preparations for the inevitable, and that's a good move.

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