Contributing Member of the Energy & Industrials Councils

GLG News by this Author

New center-right gov't in Germany should be able to extend nuclear plant lives

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Germany to stay nuclear in Merkel U-turn | www.telegraph.co.uk

Merkel's CDU/CSU and its new pro-business partner, the FDP, have enough votes to push through their plans to allow Germany's 17 operating nuclear plants to continue past the current lifetime limitations created by the country's nuclear phase-out law. However, there will be strong opposition from the three non-governing parties -- SDP, Greens & Left Party. Thus, the most likely outcome is that the 17 reactors will be given reprieves for up to 10 years each.

Global nuclear power growth is real and climate change is a huge driver

May 28, 2009

Analysis of:Nuclear, Low-Carbon Platform Solutions To Climate Change - G8 | online.wsj.com

As a key consultant to global nuclear power utilities and suppliers, I track trends and provide detailed forecasts for nuclear power growth through 2030.  My main findings are: 1) China, India, South Korea, and Russia will lead the way in terms of new reactor construction, with over 50% of all new units built by 2020. 2) The future of U.S. nuclear power depends greatly on a few factors, including climate change policy (i.e. a price on carbon that impacts decision-making for nuclear over coal), ability to finance these large capital-intensive projects, and conducive gov't/regulatory environments.  It is highly likely that 4-6 new units will be built by 2020, and other 10 or so in the years 2020-2030. 3) A number of nations, including many in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Southeast Asia, are likely to push to deploy their first reactors.  These "new nuclear countries" could be as high as 25 by the year 2030.

U.S. carbon policy is bound to help nuclear power

May 6, 2008

Analysis of:Power Companies Vie for Advantage Under Climate Plan | seattle.bizjournals.com

U.S. nuclear power generators (Exelon, Entergy, Dominion, Constellation, FPL, Duke, NRG Energy, First Energy, Southern Company, etc.) all stand to gain exceptionally if climate change policy is enacted on a national level.  Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis shows that the Lieberman-Warner bill (S. 2191) and it's carbon credit cap-and-trade system would have a tremendous impact in supporting nuclear power growth in the U.S. EIA's analysis of S. 2191 also shows that coal and natural gas could be severely negatively impacted by a carbon cap-and-trade program.

Loan guarantees are major prerequisite for new U.S. nuclear plants

August 1, 2007

Analysis of:Energy Bill Aids Expansion of Atomic Power | www.nytimes.com

Even if the one-sentence provision in the Senate energy bill remains in tact and is signed into law by President Bush, the ultimate decision to provide loan guarantees for new U.S. nuclear plants will be made by the Secretary of Energy.  The Bush administration has shown lackluster interest in the loan guarantee program so far, and future administrations may be even more hesitant to provide such multi-billion dollar guarantees.  Ultimately, however, the nuclear utilities (especially in deregulated markets) will most likely be unable to gain sufficient financing for new plants without some form of government loan guarantees unless other dynamics (e.g. climate policy) change as well.

Growth of nuclear power in Southeast Asia will be impacted by many factors

August 1, 2007

Analysis of:SE Asia's nuclear rush: Promises and pitfalls | www.isn.ethz.ch

Southeast Asia's economy has seen many ups and downs, but as China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and India grow, the ASEAN region should also continue on a growth path.  With economic development and the resultant dire need for additional energy, some of the leading Southeast Asian nations (Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia) are naturally going to turn to nuclear power to diversify their energy production.  The time horizon for nuclear plants in the region is further out than in other regions; however, ultimately, these nations will be building reactors.  This eventuality may also allow for some innovative ideas to take hold in the implementation of nuclear power in these countries.

TEPCO sits between a rock and a hard place

July 19, 2007

Analysis of:Tokyo Electric Pressed After Quake | online.wsj.com

1) Shutting down TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa (K-K) nuclear power station for good would take a whopping 8,212 MWe of low-cost, baseload generating capacity offline. 2) K-K is one of the newest and most expensive (on basis of capital investments) nuclear stations in the world, and its loss would be a massive loss to TEPCO's financials. 3) Japan is too energy-starved and too committed to the use of nuclear power to let K-K become a loss.  Somehow, they will have to find a way to make this plant operate again.

German Chancellor opens door for potential change in nuclear phase-out law

July 11, 2007

Analysis of:Germany to stay nuclear in Merkel U-turn | www.telegraph.co.uk

If Germany alters course on its current nuclear phase-out law, companies like E.ON, RWE, EnBW and Vattenfall will all reap the rewards.  Keeping most or all of the country's 17 nuclear plants operating past the deadline of 2021 could mean major economic and environmental benefits for the country and help alter the industrial output for all of Germany.  If the reactors are forced to shutdown, however, there will be serious consequences for Germany (and possibly all of Europe).

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