Contributing Member of the Legal, Economic & Regulatory Affairs Councils

GLG News by this Author

What's Wrong with McCain-Gramm Tandem ?

May 30, 2008

Analysis of:McCain economic policy shaped by lobbyist | www.msnbc.msn.com

Not a single US president has been an expert in any socio-economic item in the history of USA; they were all just  "politicians." Ike, was a so-so  military strategist and Reagan a so-so actor. Most of them, in the recent history,  knew nothing about the world outside the US -- the winning  in these "sweepstakes of silliness" was probably evenly distributed between Woodrow Wilson who, practically,  without an idea what the Europe looks and thinks like, ordered the Central Europe's "soon-to-be-presidents" to fight for their independent multi-ethnics societies to become independent  states, which directly lead to  WWII, and FDR who simply gave Stalin half of Europe, willy-nilly.   Under these circumstances, any reasonable US presidential candidate employed experts on various  policy items that they knew nothing about  at all. Therefore, McCain seeking the advice from Phill Gramm is no different to Ronald Reagan's listening to Arthur Laffer's  "tax-cuts-to-boost-investment" spiel. 

Colombia Oil Reserves Being "Business-Friendly": Think Again

April 14, 2008

Analysis of:Colombia sitting on big oil reserves | www.ft.com

Colombia’s  20+bn barrels of crude resources are only about 10%  of  neighboring Venezuela, but Colombia ( as oppose to its neighbor )  welcome foreign investment. However, problems with its oil fields are: (1) They are all in the  Arauca province, bordering Venezuela, and have become a license to print money for Marxist guerrillas and their paramilitary foes, who both profit from the 485-mile pipeline ( either by extorting money for not destroying it or siphoning the oil from the pipeline and sell it elsewhere.) (2) Virtual civil war in Colombia: drug cartels vs. Colombia & US military, trying to stem the drug trafficking, destabilized, already poverty stricken society, even more. So, the original US position: not to let the war in Colombia further destabilize its neighbor and threaten the flow of oil northward, changed. In Colombia now, the oil may have destabilized  the society, more than the drug cartels ever did; and importance of Venezuela, as a source of oil, is fading fast.

What can be done about "climate-change" and economic downturns to sustain the world's well-being?

January 31, 2008

Analysis of:Climate change 'significantly worse' than feared: Al Gore | afp.google.com

It becomes clear that only about 5%-9% greenhouse effect ( GE ) is affected by CO2 ( rest being water vapor, oxygen etc. ) Hence, to nobody’s surprise, it has been shown that CO2 has no significant statistical correlation with the “global warming”.  At the same time, the main factor in “global warming” has been identified-- actually, ancient Incas' weather predictions were based on similar principle--  as “changes in sunspots and other solar activity.” And yet, we are told by Al Gore et al. to spend umpteen USD trillions to reverse completely exogenous factor while the endogenously feasible fixes of international economic woes ( stagnation, crises, rising cost of energy ) would be completely reversed -- if rational minds were at work there-- for a fraction of these costs.

US RECESSION IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO INSTALL A SUSTAINABLE HIGH GROWTH OF ASIA ECONOMIES

January 24, 2008

Analysis of:Asia Markets Sink Amid Pessimism Over US | biz.yahoo.com

Asia would be able to weather any recession in the United States, analysts say, because rising trade and investment within the region make it less dependent on the U.S. economy than in the past, and many Asia countries would find ways to step up infrastructure spending to help offset the negative impact from slowing export. “China and India represent a bigger presence on the world stage than just a half dozen years ago,'' said David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. China, in particular, has ''more it can bring to buffer whatever happens in the U.S.'   Recession or not, the prospect of hard times in the U.S. is actually seen by many fund managers as a positive for Asia. Just as Asian stock markets benefited last year from a flight to quality following the fallout from the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis, the same scenario is expected to play out in 2008.

Floating? In a Short Future a $100 p/b Will Be Seen As a Miracle of Low Pricing

November 12, 2007

Analysis of:Why $100 Oil Can't Float | online.wsj.com

It is exactly the matter of supply and demand which will do it. Within the last quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2000 demand for crude oil was greater than supply by perhaps 2.5 mbd, while the shortfall was filled by drawing down stocks. This shortfall, 3.4% of world oil production, was enough to propel the price of crude from $9 pb in early 1999 to more than $30 pb in February 2000. Thus, a 3.4% shortfall amounted to a 233% increase in price. Combine it with the study ( National Petroleum Council , October 2007 ) predicting a growing gap between production and demand for oil during the next two decades, with the fact the price pb have doubled lately, and demand is alive, well and accelerating, then the argument that rising prices would choke demand and bring increased output is totally false and the conclusion in the title is clearer.

Cartel: Probable; Provable, Only When All The EC Regulations Are Found Sane

November 9, 2007

Analysis of:Impressive' energy cartel uncovered in Germany | www.euractiv.com

Germany’s four main energy suppliers, E.ON, RWE, Vattenfall (of Sweden) and EnBW (partially owned by France's EDF), are said to be discussing common strategies, inclusive of the, almost identical, power prices raise. The raise, starting in 2008, would be in the area of 8 – 9 percent. Apart from the “cartel-like” behavior, being investigated by the German cartel office, the Economy Minister Glos questioned, in particular, how the price increases could be justified given the overwhelming reliance on inexpensive brown coal and nearly depreciated nuclear power stations for electricity production. Energy company executives blame the increases on decisions made by political leaders. They said that ecology taxes, power taxes and increases in value-added taxes had made electricity more expensive.

Russian Geo-Politics in Full Swing: Gazprom’s Shtockman Landed Norway & France

November 6, 2007

Analysis of:GAZPROM AND STATOILHYDRO SIGN AGREEMENT ON MAIN CONDITIONS FOR COOPERATION IN PHASE 1 SHTOKMAN FIELD DEVELOPMENT, International Herald Tribune | www.gazprom.com

Putin has scored again. This time he has successfully hit multiple targets : EU’s financial and energy policy, opening a bigger gap between USA and EU, and sowing the rift within EU, while acquiring perhaps a substantial part of portfolios of gas and oil exploratory licenses and down stream refineries from the U.S. Coast to Middle East, Africa to the Far East inclusive of Fiji and Tonga. The price? Not more than 24% of the management company stock to Norwegian StatoilHydro, who will make the Stockman reserves accessible to the Russian gas pipelines to Europe and 25% of the same stock to the French Total S.A. that is known to be able to make and/or smooth-out every gas or oil deal anywhere in the world. Under the deal, Gazprom will maintain 51 per cent of the management company and 100 percent of the company that controls the license for the project. In other words, Gazprom “will remain owner of all of the extracted hydrocarbons” as the statement says; brilliant.

The U.S. PTO: “The GlaxoSmithKline Made the Patent-Application Process More Efficient”

November 5, 2007

Analysis of:Glaxo Granted Injunction on Patent Rules | online.wsj.com

Glaxo’s lawsuit is believed to be the first by a corporation to challenge the rules, which are designed to make the patent-application process more "efficient by encouraging applicants to use greater precision in describing the scope of their inventions," according to a statement by the patent office ( PTO ). Glaxo, on the other side, says that after an initial application, it can learn information that may help it obtain stronger patent protection. Last news is that the PTO opted for an alternative in which “ continuations rules had been enjoined,”and they continue "to believe that the ( standing ) rules are an important component of modernizing the patent system."

China Will Strongly Fight the "Indexing of Iron Ore Prices", One Way or Other

November 2, 2007

Analysis of:BHP Billiton Faces China's Anger on Index | www.ft.com

The problem stems from the two contradictory statements: "...China's strong iron ore demand is behind BHP Billiton's ( Australia ) intention to nearly double its iron ore capacity from a predicted 155 million tonnes in 2010 to 300 million tonnes in 2015..", Ben Williams, vice president of BHP Billiton China, said. Consequently, BHP Billiton announced today that it is considering setting up an iron ore price index in order to improve the industry's pricing mechanism. As an iron ore price index will put iron ore consumers in a more passive position, as it will make the annually contracted pricing mechanism more accurately reflect cash prices, the announcement prompted a China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) official, Chen Xianwen, the head of the CISA's market research department, to comment that "..both iron ore miners and steel mills should stick to the existing and well-received pricing mechanism, which better guards the common interests of both parties...."

Wood: No Problem; Political Environment is, However, Another Story in Africa

October 31, 2007

Analysis of:A Man Has a Plan To Harvest a Forest In Ghanaian Lake | www.modernghana.com

Mr. Dunn’s project of underwater logging in Ghana has two phases. If the initial testing and development phase proves that the project can be a viable business, total private investment is expected to be well over $50 million. Such investors as former Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark, Goldman Sachs and British Columbia's Salman Partners Inc. have gambled $14 million that he can both assuage environmental concerns and come up with the technology to pull the big hardwoods out of the water. “..That's something that has never been done on a commercial scale..”, according to Mr. Dunn. He might be right on this, but “cost-benefit” analyses, cutting-edge technology, and Ghanian parliament’s unanimous approval--- based on 20% cut for the Government ( and, obviously, other “gifts” to Ghanian VIPs ) --- unfortunately does not mean a thing in African environment.

Obviously, Just a Standard Small Dip on the Short Business Curve

October 30, 2007

Analysis of:"Economy's Weak Signals Persist | online.wsj.com

The latest readings on some of the U.S. “ economic indicators” is presented, in certain quarters, as continuing signs of weakness. The main arguments being “ Sales of newly built homes over the summer were weaker than previously estimated” , “September manufacturing was subdued”, “Business inventories are mounting and the job market is displaying worrying signs of erosion.” However, everybody who understands the theory of business cycles and reads the real-data and forecasts ( not just US but Canadian as well ) , should see a typical short-term dip in the quasi-sine curve that is generally known to be spotted within the “ upper” and “lower” boundaries --- a two parallel straight lines in the two-dimensional space, where on the x-axis is “time” and on y-axis is “economic activity” --- that are both increasing with “time.”

EC Finally Started the "Post Microsoft" Rally; However, Too Little and Too Late

October 29, 2007

Analysis of:EU decision sees narrower window for Microsoft | www.ft.com

Here's the background. The EU opened up a series of anti-monopoly investigations against Microsoft starting in 1999. The EU found that  Mocrosoft abused his dominance of the operating systems market both by tying WMO ( Window Media Player ) to Windows and by failing to release  information about Windows to competitors in the server market. After long talks with Microsoft, the EU gave up its trying to get Microsoft be cooperative and slapped the company with a 497 million euro fine in March 2004. On Monday ( October 22, 2007 ) Microsoft finally agreed to drop its appeals of the European Commission's 2004 anti-trust rulings and to make certain technical information available to competitors working to make their products interoperable with Microsoft's. The general opinion is that it is too little too late.

Google's Boo-Boo in Australia

October 22, 2007

Analysis of:ACCC to target only parent firm Google | www.ft.com

In July 2007, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission ( ACCC ) filed a world-first action alleging that Google Inc. and the Trading Post contravened the Trade Practices Act in 2005 when the classified business used the names of the car dealerships unrelated to the firm in paid, or sponsored, advertisements. The text links in those advertisements directed people searching for the car dealerships Kloster Ford and Charlestown Toyota to the Trading Post, which competed with them for business, rather than to dealerships.

Strange Bedfellows : US and EC Raiding Mostly Swiss Freight Forwarders in Cartel Probe

October 17, 2007

Analysis of:Company tip triggered international freight investigation: Swiss officials | www.iht.com

Eerie things happened on October 10-11, 2007 when EC and US inspectors, presumably accompanied by the Swiss investigators ( as Switzerland is not a member of EU ) , raided offices of Swiss-based Kuehne & Nagel International AG and Panalpina Welttransport Holding AG. To be sure,  there were other "more-logical-for-the-probe-personnel-nationalities" freight forwarders: DHL, an international shipping unit of Deutsche Post AG, Schenker AG of Essen ( Germany ), UTI Worldwide, and Seattle-based Expeditors Internationals Inc. among others."..The ( European ) Commission has reason to believe that the companies concerned may have violated ( EU ) rules... ( neither Switzerland nor US are EU members !) ... that outlaw restrictive business practices.." it said in the statement. As the EC specifically cares not to trample over internatitional laws concerning "block" exemptions and/or immunities from antitrust laws, one must be surprised to find the Swiss and US companies in this massive probe.

Ford in Romania: EU's Meddling in Affairs That it Did Not Understand Nor Wanted To

October 15, 2007

Analysis of:EU opens state aid probe into Ford's Craiova | www.autonews.com

In January 2007, Romania's bankrupt Daewoo Auto had four possible suitors: GM, Ford, Chery of China and India's Tata. Apart from Byzantine administration practices and corruption that still prevail in all formerly Communist states, the tender called for: (1) certain minimum assured production levels, and (2) for maintaining of all --- highly redundant, administrative, logistic & production staff and overinflated managerial --- employees. At the end, only Ford stayed the course and won the deal. Now, EU is trying to find out why it was Ford ( and not, perhaps, Fiat ) that inked the deal that will see Ford buying US$ 77.9 million worth of 72.4% of the state-owned Automobile Craiova and promising to invest another US$ 923 million to upgrade and expand  car production there. 

FDA & Buckman v. Recent Tests of State-Law Claims Preemptions

October 9, 2007

Analysis of:Supreme Court to Address Pharmaceutical Companies' Protection From State Suits | www.law.com

Protection from the State suits has been based on unanimous verdict of Federal Court in case of Buckman Co. v. Plaintiffs' Legal Committee, 531 U.S. 341 (2001). The Court said basically that: (1)"Policing fraud against federal agencies is not a 'traditional' state function."(2)"Existing federal law amply empowers the FSA to punish and deter fraud."(3)"State fraud-on-the-FDA claims would 'skew' the Agency's balance of statutory objectives;" and (4)".....that such state-law claims were preempted because states may not reexamine federal regulatory decisions." Given the Court's unanimity and the breadth of its holding, Buckman was for years read to prohibit any state-law fraud allegations against any federal agency.

ITC STAY OR NOT, THE 'BROADCOM-QUALCOMM' LITIGATION WAR MAY CHANGE THE INDUSTRY FOREVER

October 2, 2007

Analysis of:Qualcomm shares up on stay of ITC ban for phones | www.reuters.com

The ITC stay is not, nor should be, as important as the perceived 'strategic shift' in some QUALCOMM clients' boardrooms. These carriers do not like the protracted litigation war between BROADCOM and QUALCOMM any better than its legal maneuvers and their possible outcomes. Even though the stay allows phone makers to import devices with the infringing chips, some carriers seem to prefer the idea of direct "licensing pacts" with BROADCOM to avoid the delays and stoppages in supplies. First of such licensing pact with BROADCOM was struck by VERIZON ( on July 19th ). By doing that, VERIZON is not just undermining QUALCOMM's hard-line legal strategy, but setting a precedent. Such a precedent may have far-reaching consequences for wireless service providers, handset makers, and mobile-phone users for years to come.

ADAMS vs. PERRIGO IN RE: GUIFENESIN "MUCINEX SE 600mg" TABLETS

October 1, 2007

Analysis of:Adams Respiratory Therapeutics Files Lawsuit Against Perrigo for Infringement of Mucinex(R) Patent | www.adamslaboratories.com

The ADAMS Co. may expect similar litigation in RE: "Mucinex SE 600mg" extended-release tablets as she previously experienced with the MUTUAL Co.  MUTUAL simply wanted to get into the same market with the same product. Then, both parties have agreed to dismiss all patent infringement claims and all counterclaims. However, the current litigant in ADAMS' suit, the PERRIGO Co, was previously sued by Johnson & Johnson and Merck & Company for infringement of a patent related to the formulation of "Pepcid(R) Complete" ( another generic drug ) and she won in the Federal Court. As for, both, ADAMS and PERRIGO Companies, the crucial importance of the product-under-litigation is its legal ability to be sold over-the-counter,  and with the current U.S. Administration tenor being: to make the generic drugs cheaper to the public by allowing competition, some fancy litigation on ADAMS' part should be probably needed.

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