Contributing Member of the Technology, Media & Telecom Councils

All News Analyses by this Author

STEC's SSD Run: How far can it go? When should they sell out?

September 12, 2009

Analysis of:STEC Has EMC to Thank for it's Rapid Growth | www.enterprisestorageforum.com

STEC races past established flash and HDD vendors to gain share at EMC, with qual's at others.The 2nd phase of the race is now starting to depend upon SSD's gaining more share from HDD's, depending on a couple of technology hurdles.A new player from left field has entered the fray, jumping one of those hurdles.

Toshiba Strives to Buffett Declining 3.5" Utilization

August 5, 2009

Analysis of:Toshiba enters 3.5” external HDD market | www.techgadgets.in

Why would Toshiba enter a market where the form factor is becoming less popular because of desktop unit skrinkage?  

Does Anyone Realize the Scope of the War Cisco Just Began?

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:IBM-Brocade deal pits Big Blue against Cisco Systems | triangle.bizjournals.com

Tech behemoths have to change strategy to keep earnings growth. Sometimes their strategies are unclear until its too late for competitors. I've seen this movie before. I know the ending.

QLogic, Emulex, EMC, Broadcom Mergers

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:QLogic Rallies On Rumors Of EMC Bid | blogs.barrons.com

Should Broadcom buy Emulex or Qlogic and why? Should EMC buy QLogic? What is the real root cause of this activity?

Validation - Why Microsoft ASP's Will Fall Further - Netbooks' Effect

January 27, 2009

Analysis of: Ubuntu Remains Best Linux Distribution for Desktops | www.eweek.com

Microsoft missed earnings due to OS declines, is laying off workers, and is not providing guidance, just as I disclosed in my earlier analysis.

Here's Why Microsoft ASP's Will Fall Further - Netbooks' Effect

December 4, 2008

Analysis of:Ubuntu Remains Best Linux Distribution for Desktops | www.eweek.com

* Microsoft will have lower ASP's in both their OS and Application products * The driver will be sub-$200 Netbooks * Netbooks will gain more traction, * The threat of the Linux OS is enough to pressure Microsoft margins, which has already started.

Hedge Funds Need to New Risk Analysis Tools for PE Deals

January 24, 2007

Analysis of:Private equity in 2007 | money.cnn.com

1. Hedge funds are missing out on the spectacular returns that certain tech startups can provide.

2. Risks can be managed almost to zero using new business scoring models introduced at UCLA.

3. It's time to replace blind speculation with prudent, measured risk-taking.

TWC, ATT/Dish, VZ/DTV: Web Content Download Devices Must Remain Thin and Near the TV

January 19, 2007

Analysis of: Apple Officially Announces "Apple TV" | www.ipodobserver.com

• Cable, Satellite and DSL Companies have a huge opportunity before them to streamline downloads
• Cable Companies seem to be in the Lead vs. the DSL/Satellite pairs
• Any solution must keep costs down to encourage adoption

Future Hedge Fund Home Runs to Lie in Private Equity Startups

January 5, 2007

Analysis of:Business2.0/CNN Story: 5 ways to start a company (without quitting your day job) | money.cnn.com

*  This B2.0 Story originated from an interview with myself (see quote in paragraph 5 of article) and a few of my startup colleagues in the UCLA Technology Innovators' Forum I founded.

*  Hedge funds are missing out big time on the spectacular returns that certain tech startups can provide.

*  Risks can be managed almost to zero using my nonspeculative “CURRANTS” business scoring model introduced at UCLA.

Seagate: HDD Industry Deja Vu?

January 5, 2007

Analysis of:Seagate buys eVault for $US 185 million | www.echannelline.com

• Seagate has to make up its mind strategically about what business it wants to be in

 

• This diversification approach failed when HDD vendor WD tried it in the late nineties

 

• I helped clean up that mess as acting COO of WD/Connex, which made NAS boxes that would use WD HDD’s

HDD's & Flash to Co-Exist

January 4, 2007

Analysis of:Toshiba’s New 1.8-inch HDD Achieves 100 GB, World’s Largest Storage Capacity | www.toshiba.co.jp

HDDs will be around at least 3 more years.

LSI/Agere - Storage & Strategic Implications

December 6, 2006

Analysis of:LSI To Buy Agere in $4B Stock deal | online.wsj.com

Merger success will depend on:

leveraging combined storage strengths and

streamlining of operations

Flash (SanDisk) to the Rescue

December 4, 2006

Analysis of:15 Years Of Hard Drive History: Capacities Outran Performance | www.tomshardware.com

 • HDD Speeds and Shock Absorbency Rule Selection

 • Higher HDD Speed & Lower Cost Flash Announcements will be Tip-Off     Factors

Outsourcing Everything but the Crown Jewels

November 27, 2006

Analysis of:Is Offshore IT Outsourcing Losing Its Luster? | www.optimizemagazine.com

• For any capitalistic society, outsourcing is now required

• Companies need to determine what their crown jewels are considering  legacy obligations vs. future opportunities

• The degree of company execution results in long term winners vs. losers for shareholders

2 Desparate Peas in a Pod

November 6, 2006

Analysis of:Google to broker newspaper advertising space | www.msnbc.msn.com

• Google enters lower-margin ad broker business in a dying medium

• Newspapers surrender

Seagate Inadvertently Tips Its Hat

November 1, 2006

Analysis of:Merger Charges Hit Seagate Profit | www.thestreet.com

Seagate Taking Deals at Lower Prices Provides Insight into:

-Manufacturing Costs post-Maxtor

-Strategic Plan Going Forward

-Plans for Low Volume Competitors

TAM Implications for HDD's from Network DVR's

October 31, 2006

Analysis of:Time Warner to launch 'Start Over' cable service on Monday | www.mysanantonio.com

• HDD TAM Numbers Will Shift from Home DVR's to Blades used in Data Centers

• Timing will Coincide with Greater Capacity from Perpendicular Technology

• The Hammer will gradually come down on low volume HDD's as greater capacities are desired by customers

You Tube Acquisition Points to Google's Failure to Innovate

October 31, 2006

Analysis of:YouTube's New Deep Pockets | www.businessweek.com

• The compulsion to buy YouTube is an indication of greater flaws within Google:

   • Lack of Strategic Planning

   • Failure to Obliterate a puny Startup

   • Impaired Judgement because of present Google Valuation

NAND & HDD's Growth Rates

October 23, 2006

Analysis of:Disk drives, NAND find common ground | www.eetimes.com

• NAND adoption rates Will Surge
 
• HDD's Will Retain a Stable Growth Rate

Isn't Strategy the Obvious Answer for the Newspapers?

October 20, 2006

Analysis of:Why Tribune Needs to Work Quickly | online.wsj.com

The newspapers lack:

    • the ability to focus on the next 2 years with some strategic planning

    • a compelling strategy for Wall Street

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