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GLG News by this Author

Modern Water Wars

June 1, 2006

Analysis of:Misconduct Taints The Water In Some Privatized Systems | email.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times reports that safe drinking water is now in many cities up to private enterprise.For-profit companies are advertised to provide cleaner water at lower cost.The difficulty here is that while 90% of municipalities are said to have extended their contracts for water and sewer services at renewal time,

Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Re-Max or …

May 30, 2006

Analysis of:MacKenzie Sells The Most Homes In The County Orange County Register Saturday May 27, 2006 | www.ocregister.com

The Orange County Register reports Mac MacKenzie sold 158 homes at an average of $ 667,000 a copy last year ($ 117.5 million) – more homes on behalf of Sellers than any other real estate agent in Orange County, California.That’s about three homes weekly – five times as many homes as the average number sold by the top 1% of all “active” agents in the county.Contrast this performance with the fact that less than one in seven practicing real estate agents earns as much as the county’s median family income: $ 72,000.There are 60,000 real estate license holders in Orange County, but only 10,600 sold at least one home they had listed.The top 1% of these “active” agents – 106 agents – sold one of every 13 homes listed in Orange County.The top 106 sold $ 3.6 billion of real estate – almost as much as the 5,300 agents at the bottom.

Where's It All Going To Go?

May 25, 2006

Analysis of:Consumers Feeling Pinch as Inflation Rises; Stocks Fall on Interest Rate Fears | email.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times reports in two articles that rising inflation could push interest rates higher and threaten the economy. The offending factors include prescription drugs, hospital costs, transportation/airline fares, clothing, school books and residential rents. The published news excludes energy costs, so the news may be even worse. The chief economist for Moody’s Economy.Com suggests a possibility of slower growth and rising inflation simultaneously.

Location, Location, Location

May 25, 2006

Analysis of:Port Traffic Opens Window To The World Of Logistics April 1, 2006 | www.nreionline.com

In 1994, the volume of containerized cargo imported into the U.S. was 48 million tons. Ten years later the volume is 1.5 times as large. Seaports on both coasts are operating at maximum capacity. The vacancy rate for warehousing nationwide is 8.1% and the coastal areas are apparently even tighter.

An Alarm Bell

May 25, 2006

Analysis of:China Sits On $ 1 Trillion Of Defaults | globest.com

Ernst & Young has issued a report estimating that China’s banks have as much as a rounded up $ 1 trillion of non-performing loans and an estimated $ 65 billion in real estate loans that may be buried in the “special mention” category. The banks have lent aggressively since 1998. Transparency/lack of disclosure may have obscured the real results. The implication is that matters may be seriously worse. Political pressure based on further employment as an auditor in China has been brought to bear on E&Y. E&Y audits the largest Chinese bank, Industrial and Commerce Bank of China. Information is scarce but it is thought that political influence has been an underwriting factor. Loans may have been made to unqualified officials of the Chinese Communist Party and to state owned companies without credit verification. Chinese culture resists openness and accountability. The Chinese banking system is operationally decentralized. Further, regulations limit institutions in their actions to resolve difficult loans. Other reports by McKinsey and Company and PricewaterhouseCoopers offer like analyses.

Are Housing Values In The Final Turn?

May 24, 2006

Analysis of:Forecasters Worried by Job Losses | email.latimes.com

California reported a job loss of 2,600 positions in April following an unexpected loss of 13,400 slots in March. The state gained an average of 24,000 jobs monthly in 2005 and 20,000 per month in 2004. The explanation centered primarily on a new housing slowdown. The director of the Center For Continuing Study Of The California Economy cited cautious consumers, higher energy prices and escalating interest rates as additional predictors of a slower economy.

Where's It All Going To Go?

May 24, 2006

Analysis of:Housing increases account for nearly half the rise in the core ... | email.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times reports in two articles that rising inflation could push interest rates higher and threaten the economy. The offending factors include prescription drugs, hospital costs, transportation/airline fares, clothing, school books and residential rents. The published news excludes energy costs, so the news may be even worse. The chief economist for Moody’s Economy.Com suggests a possibility of slower growth and rising inflation simultaneously.

The World Is Better At Economic Growth Now Than We Are – Maybe

May 19, 2006

Analysis of:Emerging Nations Powering Global Economic Boom | www.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times points out that the global economy is growing on all fronts on all continents. Employment rates are high as businesses are earning and growing. Confidence is high. Free trade is making this possible by creating new jobs in the emerging economies. The wealth being created is enormous.

Some Opinions About Effective Management Of Apartment Communities

May 17, 2006

Analysis of:Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers | www.bls.gov

The U.S. Department of Labor includes real estate asset and property management in its Occupational Outlook Handbook. The treatise states the normal need for a college education and professional designations. The abilities to communicate orally, write, work with computers and handle finances are other requirements. Tact is an essential. Half of the managers are self employed. The profession will grow about as fast as the average industry in the future.

He’s Good-To-Go If He Can Just Go

May 17, 2006

Analysis of:Condo Conversion Drive Heats Up | sacbee.com

May 14, 2006

The Sacramento Bee reports that Gary Gallelli purchased the Southwood Apartment complex in the Pocket area of Sacramento, California last July. He plans to convert the units to condos. Sacramento has not approved a conversion since 1991. The city’s existing ordinance is restrictive as compared with other jurisdictions. The report says that the city is rethinking its ordinance in light of 2,500 conversions already approved in adjacent communities as well as the 4,000 new condos constructed in recent times.

A Forty Year Story

May 16, 2006

Analysis of:Extreme Makeover, California Edition | email.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times tells us that California’s voters will have the opportunity November 7 to vote for $ 37.3 billion of roadway construction, riverbank flood control, new schools and affordable housing stock. In the 1960’s, California doubled water storage capacity, developed thousands of miles of freeways and grew the state’s college and university system. Forty years later, the state has yet to complete the balance of the planned water system, allowed population densities to get ahead of the highway system, forgotten about flood control issues and allowed education systems to grow crowded and inefficient. Even now the current proposal is not the full-boat original planned earlier this year as it was cut back in the recent political process.

Housing Ownership Is A Zero-Sum Game For Resident Owners.

May 12, 2006

Analysis of:Fort Ord | danbaum.web.aplus.net

Monterey County’s coastline is undeniably beautiful. Right in the middle is the 45 square mile Fort Ord which is described in Dan Baum’s writing. Since 1993, the base and its 10,000 buildings have been substantially unused. All this is located in the region suffering from the most acute affordable housing shortage in the United States. Local wages are set by the low pay standards of the agriculture and tourism industries. Dan tells us that half of Monterey County’s residents rent their home, but a two bedroom apartment requires an income of over $ 16 hourly. The average working wage is half that amount. One bedroom shacks sell for $ 300,000.

Money Well Spent So Far

May 11, 2006

Analysis of:Private Equity’s Buying Binge | www.nreionline.com

The Private Equity fund is a modern vehicle originating in the late 1980’s. The overbuilding of that era together with the failures of the then financial community, an adjustment in the military infrastructure and a recession created an inventory of distressed property. The original investments proved to be wise and money has been raised at an accelerating rate ever since.

Mesirow Financial Housing Report

May 10, 2006

Analysis of:Mesirow Financial Housing Report | www.mesirowfinancial.com

An April 12, 2006 report by Ms. Diane C. Swank, the Chief Economist and a Senior Managing Director of Chicago’s       Mesirow Financial, eloquently makes the case for a retreat in new housing sales and home prices through 2007. A well-  stated summation of 2005 repeats record homes sales and starts, “skyrocketing” home values and speculative
enthusiasm as a basis for consideration of the future.

Are Ameriquest’s Mortgage Company’s Problems Unique Or Is The Problem Systemic?

May 9, 2006

Analysis of:Ameriquest’s Loan Volume Plunges | www.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times reports that the sub-prime lender Ameriquest has closed all 229 of its retail branches eliminating 3,800 jobs. Loan volume for the 1^st quarter 2006 was 46% lower, rising interest rates have affected profitability and competition is bitter. The company volume was $ 2.6 billion in the 1^st quarter compared with $ 4.8 billion in the same 2005 period. The company settled a predatory lending investigation with 49 states by paying $ 325 million and reforming its consumer protection procedures.

Here’s How They’re Going To Do Neighborhoods In Los Angeles

May 6, 2006

Analysis of:First Sprouts of a Vertical Cityscape, by Janet Eastman, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer, May 4, 2006 | www.latimes.com

The Los Angeles Times reporter, Janet Eastman, tells us in this article that Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Chief Planner Gail Goldberg are leading a strategy to add new homes in multi-story communities at densities of less than 50 units per acre. These urban projects will be three and four story buildings incorporating retail at ground level if appropriate and adjacent to light rail if possible. The mix might include both owner-occupied and investment housing. Offices for local businesses and other small commercial space users might find a home in these buildings too.

Bank of America General Growth Article

May 3, 2006

Analysis of:http://www.globest.com/news/522_522/chicago/145017-1.html | www.globest.com

A buy signal for General Growth Properties Inc.’s common stock has been raised by a Bank of America team charged with retail real estate analysis. The recent sell off in that security leading to a previous neutral rating as a reaction to short-term risks is thought to be excessive, the duo says. Those risks included lower 4^th Quarter 2005 reported earnings, a reporting delay in SEC filings and interest rate increases affecting a floating rate 26% portion of the company’s debt. The analysis purports that class A malls will outperform lesser grade shopping centers and that General Growth will benefit by owning such property.

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