Contributing Member of the Financial & Business Services Councils

All News Analyses by this Author

Alliance: Operating Profits Fall!!Core Operations of Insurance is Not the Problem!

May 11, 2009

Analysis of:Allianz operating profits fall 41% | www.ft.com

Implications: 1.The Institutions Solvency Ratio was Flattered by a SHift in Accounting Procedures.Insurance Operations are stable. 2.The Hedging Of the Firm's Equities exposure and Regulatory Rulings on Bond losses were , to some extent , a salvation. 3.The salient problem at hand is the Insitutions "discontinued" Banking Operations. A viable issue as the Firm's Management diverted Assets to Bank Acquisitions! A Major Error! 4.The Firm's Management provides assurances of a retention of the Firm's Capitalization. 5 Cash generative property and casuality insurance products will ensure a sound capital base. "Time Sensitive Environment"!!!

Proposed Legislation: The European Union's Answer to to Disruption in a Voltile Hedge Fund Marketplace!

May 8, 2009

Analysis of:Hedge Funds, Buyout Firms Say EU Rules Are Punitive | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.More legislative directive's appear to be the answer to volitilty - Inappropriate at this time! 2.A factor to consifer: The diversion of Private Equity and Venture Capital to a condusive Monetar Marlketplace. A mistake with Long Term consequences. 3.The three (3) Primary Criteria are being overlooked: (A). Investment Returns will change. (B) . The matter of Volatility must be acceptable not regulated and (C). The concept of Risk cannot be avoided. 4.Hedge Funds Strategies vary greatly and cannot guarantee a cushion against a market downturn. 5.The primary objective is a reduction in volatility and risk. There is NO guarantee that the same wii take place!!!!!

Takeover of Bramdean Alternative Funds - Caution is the Method: Buyer Beware of Fault!

May 6, 2009

Analysis of:Takeover approach for Horlick fund | www.ft.com

Implications: 1. Progessive European Markets Has a small stake in the venture - Madoff is the "Deal Killer"! 2.Dissatisfaction over FUNDS Performance with a third of asset distribution is a Serious Mattter and must be corrected. 3.Two (2) major investors: Hampshire County Council and RMF Investments with a 19% and a 15 % stake are in a hazardous position. 4.Private Equity appears to be the most saliet issue , at hand.The factsheet has a Lack of Disclosure and will require a material amount of Due Diligence. 5.Net Asset Valuations fluctuate due to Regulatory Capital requiremets - an obvious hazard to any Financial Marketeer!!!!!!

European Markets are affected by the "Concept" of Unfounded Confidence!!!

May 6, 2009

Analysis of:FTSE 100 heads for biggest monthly gain in 17 years | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1.FTSE - Largest Monthly gain in 17 years is based upon OTIMISM not a cleasr Financial Foundation. 2.The FTSE Index has risen by 2.2pc - clearly not an indicator of a sustainable Economic Turnaround. Unsubstantiated data May cause future re-allocations inthe forecast. 3.Speculation has, indeed, INFLUENCED consumer confidence. The question , at hand, is SPECULATION. 4.Analysts' provide Estimates - only. The salient point is the foundation of information and the assumption of the underlying variables. 5.The UK consumer is reacting to a "Spark" of hope , which MAY NOT be realistic Finanacial Information but, manipulatation of data!!!

The Standard Market Risks have been Ignored: Diversification Strategies are no longer Viable!

May 4, 2009

Analysis of:Street-Smart Risk Management | www.rmmagazine.com

Implications: 1. The that the value of an Investment will Decrease due to moves in Market Factors has been delineated. 2.The Basic Factors: (A) Equity Risk, (B) Interest Rate Risk, (C) Currency Risk and (D Commodity Risk have been ignored in many situations and are , now, fatal. 3.The assumptions of Value at Risk are no longer valid - Limited by managerial assumptions! 4.The question at hand is: "What is normal?" There are Normal Business activities and, also Business activities that fall out of the Norm! 5.The probability of adverse circumstances are here and there is A COST associated with not calculating the variables!!!!

CEO'S : Optimism Does Not Relatte to Emerging from the Economic/Financial Crisis.

April 30, 2009

Analysis of:CEOs starting to run out of answers | www.vimay-group.com

Implications: 1Identify the position's limits for success: gather a Board of Advisors for Accountability! 2.Creation of measurable performance criteria for the ENTIRE executive team. 3.Follow the Fundamentals: (A). Setting the Strategy and vision with a CLEAR focus. (B). A Viable Creation of the Corporate Culture - Executive team and model the behavior. (C). Capital Allocation  anda wise judgement focus will eliminate mistakes. (D). Primary eliments of enhanacement - Building a Culture and making the sane attainable for successs. 4.Feedback - a mandatory element for success not an arbitratry conclusion!

DWS Gold Plus Fund: an Expectation of Inlation and the Revival of Economies:Overstatement!

April 27, 2009

Analysis of:DWS Investments Gold Plus Fund Expands 50% as Investors Return | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1. Investments in Tracking Gold Prices? Gold does not pay Interest or Income.Define the Value - Added! 2.Eight (8) consecutive annual advances MAY BE qualified by a weaker dollar due to internationaleconomic policies which due not appear to have an ending! 3.Expectations of  inflationary policy may be grounded but with uncertaintity, 4.Hedge against inflation MAY Be a short term "Negative on Gold" The basis for decision-making : A forecast of Higher oil prices. 5. Forecasting MUST include all variables which are likely to surface. A forecasting Survey is not likely to include the unforseen conditions which surface at a latter date!

Asian Financial Crisis: Investors Subscribe To the Withdrawal of Capital due to Financial Leveraging!

April 24, 2009

Analysis of:Asian markets trim gains after weaker China growth | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1. All Emerging Markets will feel the Rath of Sales Declining at a rapid pace. 2.Pysychological Impact will have a direct correlation - " Halted Trading for the 11th time with in this year". A monumental impact on both traders and investors. 3.The most salient issue is the errosion of an of a pre -emenent Slowing Economy: A material act of consequence! 4.The Japanese and South Korean markets have illustrated the full impact ofa failing economic posture! 5.The key to success - Asian Leaders helping eachother to combat the growing Global Financial Crisis! A Material Advancement to all parties for the welfare od "ALL" players in the game of Financial Innovation!

Projection of the Elimination of Financial Employment is Accurate! Nomura Holdings Decline!

April 21, 2009

Analysis of:Nomura Eliminates 50 Investment Banking Jobs in Asia | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.Record Losses are on the horizon without a sound basis for recovery. 2.A reduction in costs are mandated. The Cost of Labor is , now, considered to be fixed overhead ans IS NOT variable in nature. 3.Tokyo based Nomura make a Strategic mistake by the purchase of Lehman's Asian Assets. Management envisioned a coup by the purchase of a bankrupt firm. 4. The Consequence of poor decision-making. The question to be revealed: "Was management made AWARE of the variables and, possible, defaults or final outcome?" 5." The Worst Financial Crisis since the 1930's?" The salient question is that of Accountability and no one should be held as harmless!!

Pension Funding Shortfalls : A Challenge for UK Regulators

April 20, 2009

Analysis of:Employers to close more pension schemes as funding shortfall hits record | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1.Companies collapse - workers seek recourse by way of the Pension Protection Fund. 2.Pension Protection Fund surpluses ar falling - an immediate Impact for Employers an Employees. 3.Major cause of disruption is the reliance of Stock Market Performance, which is NOT likely to be favorable to any party. 4.Final closure will be the fact the money pool will not be available for employeees , who are dependent upon upon benefits. 5. Identified Public entities shoud, indeed, seek Alternative Investment vehicles for funding - If provisions are provided for the same by the Authorities.

The Uk's Economy Is in a "Contraction" mode : The Bank of England may be Over Optimistic!

April 20, 2009

Analysis of:Bank of England's new recruit, David Miles, says that worst of recession may be over | www.telegraph.co.uk

Imlications: 1.The value of the Pound falls and the Britian MAY be the worst affected by the Global Recession. 2.Inflation numbers should be included in the calculation of an economic Up-Tick. 3. There is a strong liklihood that Public Debt may rise and strangle generations of the future. 4. The question , at hand, should the government " Support further Re-Capitalization of Public and Private Enterprise?" 5.A system of prioritization must be established , rather than a short term inflow of monies - Not the Solution, but temporary! 6. There are many demands placed upon the UK government for a Correction that my be unsustainable.

Bank of New England - Worst of Recession My be Over: Distortion

April 20, 2009

Analysis of:Bank of England's new recruit, David Miles, says that worst of recession may be over | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1. The gap between assets and liabilities widens - worse case scenero. There is no quantifiable reason for optimisium. 2.Pension plan members must assume their own responsibility for a less than favorable outcome. 3.The UK Pension Protection Fund will pass the the cost implications, ultimately, from the employer to the workforce.No a viable alternative. It ia a matter of accountability to the workforce."Who is watching the Public Watchdog?" 4.The MERITS of such funding, now, must be re-assessed ans resolved in a fairly, timely manner. 5.The Pension Protection Fund only provudes a 90% quarantee. Less than adequate and should have been resolved a long time, ago. Not in these turbulante time. Short and not timely!

Aggregate Gap in Assets and Liabilities create a Deficit in the UK Pension Funds!

April 17, 2009

Analysis of:UK pension deficit hits £250bn | www.ft.com

Implication: 1.A shortfall is expected to affect 90% of ALL PLANS!!! 2.The Major Consideration - forceable entry of Companies/Firms ti INJECT more CASH. A drain on a Critical Asset of any Institution! 3.Alternatively - Reduce Investment Risk. An achievable option , which should be exercised!!! 4.An injection of more Cash is , only , a stop-gap measure.Risk aversion is the answer for a Long - Term Solution. 5.Yields and Stock Market returns should have been avoided by Sound Financial Management not Policymaking! 6.The matching of assets and liabilities should, indeed, follow a straight line with a minimum of deviation. The answer lies in the consistent monitoring of ALL Variables to the equation. A single variable is likely to lead to this exposure.

ING Sheds Assets: Timing and Proceeds of the Disposal

April 15, 2009

Analysis of:ING to shed €8 billion of assets | business.timesonline.co.uk

Implications: 1. A Narrowing of the Firm's Scope of Business activity will have a Negative Impact on the Firm's ability to aggressively BUILD SALES Strategy in Future Markets. 2. There will be no Acceleration of Prospective Sales in the near future. 3.The most salient purpose of this Strategy is to Repay a hugh Government Bailout. A small value-added business decision : if the marketplace revives and products have to be sold to meet consumption demands. 4.Other "Strategic" Options must , now. be explored . It is a question of "Timing" not Product Line Enhancement. 5. All business criteria points to a "Buyers Market".It is not a favorable  business environment! 

RBS Asia Assets: A Footprint of Interest!

April 15, 2009

Analysis of:StanChart submitted interest in RBS Asia assets | www.reuters.com

Implications: 1.New Delhi Bank submits an "Interest" afr a government mandate. 2."Bidder"interest - only.A discussion of Valuations will be persistent for ALL parties to the transaction. 3.A Higly Disciplined approach to any acquisition will become a difficult obstacle for al players. 4.Management MAY or MAY Not consider the transaction an act of desperation - realized or unreaalized. 5. It is a matter of Perception  vs Reality! 6.Growth is defined as Organic and is not defined as Inorganic! A matter of sound managerial judgement.

Aon:Managers fail to Control Hazards and Cut Pernsions!

April 14, 2009

Analysis of:Aon shores up costs with cut in pension contribution | www.timesonline.co.uk

Implications. 1. Asset managers are failing to monitor and control RISK at the highest levels. 2.Intensifying competition among insurers at a time when demand is abating. 3.Risk Management Function is seen as an obstacle to overcome in the ordinary course od doing business. 4. The question , now, arises as to the cost that should be shared by employees! 5.Investment losses are the hidden agenda - outsourcing is not a viable solution!

HSBC: A Change in Lending Strategy from Commercial to Residential!

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:HSBC offers hope to first-time buyers with new deals | www.timesonline.co.uk

1.Substantial conditions are place upon lenders - onley a select group of customers are able to meet the "New " mortage criteria for competitive rates. Selective marketplace. 2.HSBC positioning is stronger - The Institution survived the Credit Crunch and is, hence, repositioning the portfolio. 3.Housing prices continue to fall and MAYBE a partial reasoning for the reversal in Strategy. 4.Hugh competition for selective account holders: the difference between Plus/Premier account holders vs all other primary vendors.

" All Market Opportunities for the Sale of Assets will be MATERIALLY Discounted in the Future"

December 28, 2008

Analysis of:Munich Re to Buy AIG’s HSB Division for $742 Million | www.bloomberg.com

Implications; 1.The Largest Plan for the Sale of Insurance Company Assets will miss all Goals as potential bidders are plaqued wiyh plunging stock markets. 2.Many U.S. Life Insurers basis of valuation will plumet as the basis of assets have declined , materially , and a "Fire Sale" may be necessary in the near future. 3.A need has been generated to resemble "Book Value" , in order to pay-down government debt and , still, maintain a capital base to generate earnings. 4.Book Value is defined as assets minus liabilities and have been trading between 62% and 94% - clearly not a value -added to the capitalization rate of the firm. 5.The Sale of Hartford Steam Boiler indicates that a publically traded book value a has, clearly , delineated in value between the years of 2000 to the year 2008. 6.The question , at hand: "Is the loss of value due to failure of the Financial Markets or Operational Capacity?"

" AIG's Rescue will take a LONG TIME: An Irrelevent " Kill List"!

December 28, 2008

Analysis of:Lloyd’s of London Insurers Defy Market Gloom, Gain on AIG Woes | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.The government  , simply, cannot agree to extend credit to this firm with Management intact. 2.Management has shown a clear pattern of ineptness that has created a pattern of destruction of one of America"s Greatest and Largest Firms! Poor Management and Undercapitalization!!!! 3.An illustration expressing the extreme stress racking the company and expanding, globally!!! 4.The Financial Statements  illustrate a deficiet of almost  $50 Billion of distressed assets and a monumental governmental debt. 5.The Market Value of the firm has depressed from $180 billion in 2007 to the , now, $5 billion.A gaining los that a Mark to the Market May Not Salvage! 6.The ONLY OPTION: Keep AIG afloat while it reemerges as a "Stand -Alone Private Company and gains the ability to Work-Out  a Solution to Debt related issues!!!!!

" Core Investment Banking,Trading, Asset Management and Wealth Management Business - Failed?

December 23, 2008

Analysis of:Goldman, UBS, Deutsche, Morgan Stanley Lowered by S&P | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.Writediwns are forcing large Institutions to raise New Capital to Offset Losses and extend a Lack of Willingness to extend Credit! 2.Banks are marking their Securities against an index: A Possible outcome is that losses MayBe 32 times worse than actual performance. 3.Fallacious Indexes have created More Problems than are required. 4.Hugh Writedowns in the Value of Bank Assets have gone to far and are disruptive in nature. 5.The question at hand: " Does Market to the Market in the midst of Financial Turmoil provide a viable alternative"? 6.A Statement of fact: The vast majority of of Banking Institutions are , still, well-capitalized and can support the writedowns and other types of losses. 7.Is a Bail-out scenerio being created for the Industry? 

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