Contributing Member of the Consumer Goods & Services Councils

All News Analyses by this Author

"Cash 4 Clunkers" = "Form over Substance"

June 24, 2009

Analysis of:Car Dealers Bank On Clunkers | online.wsj.com

The” Cash 4 Clunkers" legislation will not be the industry saving catalyst for automakers or dealer’s congress anticipates. Rather, it’s just another example of senseless 'feel good' spending by a government who believe that every problem can be solved by a government program. I talk with auto dealers across the country everyday and so far, while none are going to complain about anything intended to spur new car sales,  they also aren't running to fill up their new car order banks either. Dealership new car inventories are still way out of whack with the realities of the market in much of the U.S. The most popular observation is that the program will not reach the right number of the right people with the right trades for it to be as successful as hoped…I agree! The people driving the world’s "Hoopty's" a.k.a. "clunkers" with an ACV of $3,500 (and up to $4,500) do so not because they don’t want to buy or drive a new car ….they do it because they have credit challenges!

December Auto Sales ....The Worst Month We Have Ever Had

January 15, 2009

Analysis of:U.S. December Auto Sales Dive 36%, Drag Industry to 16-Year Low | www.bloomberg.com

The December Auto Sales numbers are bad out here in the PNW almost every dealer, especially every franchised dealer I have spoken with has said the same thing: "December was the worst month they have ever had". Historically, December has always been a nail biter, with the distraction of the Xmas holiday, the actual selling month becomes a very short period of time in which to make the numbers you need to float the boat. Every year we worry ...and up until now we have always pulled it out with the last week of the month  putting us over the top.  some years it has seemed like we did a whole months business during those precious last 5 days. 2008 started good and ended bad. Good bye 2008!!. On the positive side of the equation early January sales numbers are extremely encouraging across the US.  

Ford Gets The Prize For Forward Thinking

December 1, 2008

Analysis of:Ford better positioned to ride out recession | www.msnbc.msn.com

Not only is Ford in the best position to ride out this economic crisi(of the Big 3) it isn't even close. Mulally's background at Boeing taught him early and often that you can't have a big enough war chest ...just in case. In that regard he may not have been able to predict that this day was coming so soon or even that it was coming at all but as a street smart leader of american icons like Ford and Boeing, he knew that should this day come there would be no prizes or excuses for not being ready to respond and coming up short. 

View from the front lines of automotive retailing- It's very lonely out here in domestics

June 26, 2008

Analysis of:GM May Need A Loan, And Soon | www.forbes.com

The joke is that the only place lonlier than a GM dealers showroom is the Chrysler /Dodge Dealer across the street. What does that mean? It means that retailers sporting a domestic brand will need to retrench and regroup ...start stocking up on used imports which are still selling well, and pray for the summer incentives season to start early ala GM's latest announcement for their 0% money for 72 months and June giveaway rebate incentives. The alternative of course is not good and the market seems geared to do some of the dirty work for automakers like Chrysler who were worried about the expense and logistics of reducing the number of it's franchised dealers. Does that mean that cars aren't selling at all? Not at all. Mazda's continue to sell stongly as well as the Big Two Honda and Toyota. Here is the rest of the story on some of the sales numbers that were posted for May and the best guess for the balance of the summer selling season for the rest of the group.

A View From the Front Lines of Automotive Retailing! It's Worse Than You Think!- Automotive Sector- Consumer Goods

April 2, 2008

Analysis of:Dismal Year Is Forecast For Car Sales | www.nytimes.com

Based upon new car sales trends being documented among most west coast retailers across all brands of domestic automakers,  things are worse than even the most pessimistic predictions. Most of the Metro are domestic car dealers are off over 20% from their same quarter last year numbers. Who is still selling cars in this market at or below last years pace? No one! Metro area Toyota and Honda Dealers tell me their sales are off by as much as 5% and for once they can get all of the product they want just in time to see demand slip out from under them. While the experts on Wall Street have predicted a 1.6% decline in new car sales for 2008, based upon my vantage point here on the front lines of this market segment and based upon what is actually happening ...(or not happening) on sales floors and showrooms across the western United States, it is my opinion those numbers are extremley optimistic.

Look for Alan Mulally and FMC To Walk Out of These Talks With More than GM or Chrysler Did

October 31, 2007

Analysis of:As Chrysler Deal Is Set, UAW Looks To Ford | online.wsj.com

Mulally has spent over a year now getting his bearings and taking inventory of where he is and where he needs to be, consolidating his inner circle of managers who share his vision…. and learning to be a car guy! Anyone who thinks otherwise has not been paying attention to the masterful way he has set the stage for the UAW to see things his way. Energized by successes in these talks will give him the window of opportunity and credibility to raise his sword in the air and order his men to "take that hill" with some expectation that when he turns around they will all be there with him. These talks are extremely important for him to gain the ability (credibility) to have the impact he needs to have going forward.

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