Mr. Christopher Dane

GLG News by Mr. Christopher Dane, President-HRG Afilliates, LLC

Hotels RevPar decline - It is more than just the economy coming out of recession

July 20, 2009

Analysis of:Reservations Mount Over Hotel Stocks | www.businessweek.com

While the economy plays a significant role in hotel RevPar results, their is much more to it than just that. "Events and Meetings Management" (EMM)-still no signs of life. Corporate travel budgets are typically built in the fall for following calendar year-so no growth until next year at the absolute earliest...MAYBE! If you have a decline in air service you are going to have a decline in RevPar...it is that simple...and the hotels should have seen it when airlines first announced those cuts.

Cuba is not the "end all, be all" for the cruise industry

July 20, 2009

Analysis of:Cruise companies rise on sector's surge, U.S.-Cuba talks | www.reuters.com

1. Cuba will create a boom for the cruise industry....not really.2. If passed if will be several years before implemented.3. Cuba needs a lot of infrastructure work to support this potential move.4. Benefits other than cruise lines...entire Cuban economy, local hotels and building industry will have the biggest positive impact...could also lead to the demise of Castro and socialism.

Top Ten reasons to use a travel agent

June 25, 2009

Analysis of:Why Use A Travel Agent? | www.travelagentcentral.com

A David Letterman, tongue in cheek approach at why "use a travel agency".  Hopefully you wail see both the humor and the "deeper meaning" As travel becomes more "unbundled" it becomes more complicated (read: fees for everything...including checking in, using the lavatory on airplanes, a "resort fee" for a resort hotel etc.)  It is only going to get worse...so let someone else sort through it for me (and you)!

If it did not work before in better economic times, what makes you think in will work now?

June 8, 2009

Analysis of:Jet America Airlines to fly for 9 dollars | www.freshnews.in

This model will fail...again. Cannot believe someone would invest in the person (Weikle) that started Skybus... a company that failed within months of startup.  At least Donald Burr and Freddie Laker enjoyed years of success before going out of business This is not another Allegiant model...unfortunately...if it were and done by someone else...it just  might make it. 

AF-KLM eyes CSA and now purchased 25% interest in Alitalia

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Air France-KLM eyes CSA, crisis ongoing | www.reuters.com

AF-KLM seems to have taken their eye off of the core AF/KLM airline. There is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to economies of scale and they have reach that point! EU may take a greater interest should their be anymore consolidations. This assumes that Iberia remains a separate entity or does something with BA. Lufthansa done a better job of acquisitions, investments and starting new business and seems to be more strategic in their approach.

BA/IB Merger talks has 2 Opportunities to Collapse

February 2, 2009

Analysis of:British Airways-Iberia merger talks on the rocks | www.reuters.com

 1. BA stock price at 133 pence and potentially can go lower could call off the talks. 2. AA/BA antitrust immunity request could likewise kill the deal.

International Travel to Canada is down for the same reason International Travel to the US is up YOY.

May 27, 2008

Analysis of:Travel to Canada hits 5th straight record low | www.thestar.com

Paraphrasing President Bill Clinton's campaign strategist, James Carville... It is the Loonie stupid!  It is also the economy, price of gas. The reverse phenomenon is occurring in the US...where it is the dollar stupid!

Funding of the air traffic control system should be doen on an equitable basis

March 5, 2008

Analysis of:Senator Sees FAA Funding Blocked For Year Over User-Fee Issue | online.wsj.com

- Current Fee structure is illogical. Airlines pay 90% of the cost for two-thirds of the usage. - The Air traffic control system is going to get far worse with the continued growth of corporate aircraft and "very light jet" (VLJ's) -Airlines pay for 90% of the air traffic control system and use only two- thirds of the system. - This proposal  being considered is based on user fees which is far more logical, and equitable.

The airline mergers is not nessarily a "done deal" ...many obstacles remain

February 6, 2008

Analysis of:Airline Merger could bring anything | news.enquirer.com

*    Will the Bush administration or the next administration approve   approve any airlines attempt to merge? *    Unions and communities will fight any merger attempts. *    Other carriers like American and Southwest will likewise lobby against any mergers. *    Premises for mergers is not valid since there are too many profitable network carrier that are smaller than any of the individual carriers that are in play.

There is no such thing as a good airline merger

January 18, 2008

Analysis of:Delta delays Comair sale as it explores merger hopes | www.ft.com

*Service will get worse...I know that is hard to imagine. *Fares will go up. *Communites will loses both Hubs, flights and jobs. *If it happens it will be Delta merging with Northwest and United merging with Continental and no one want US Airways

Blackstone's Probably Won't Put Others in Play...

July 6, 2007

Analysis of:Will Blackstone’s Hilton Deal Put Others in Play? | online.wsj.com

* Blackstone/Hilton deal is unique on several levels * Hotel Industry metrics have probably peaked in terms of RevPAR. * New Construction in the piptline is at an all time high * Starwood's management is weak and no apparent strategy. *  Marriott is not about to sell the family business

Marriott Knows What They Are Doing

June 18, 2007

Analysis of:Strange Bedfellows: Marriott, Schrager | online.wsj.com

•Marriott is very good at managing multiple brands. •Marriott has successfully kept brands/cultures separate. •Marriott Needed a boutique brand. •Marriott has a history of success in developing brands.

Increasing CAFE standards is not the answer

May 7, 2007

Analysis of:CAFE Break | online.wsj.com

* CAFE  standards never had the intended outcome.
* relies on something to happen in the future when what is needed something for today.
*  Making car makers accountable for conservation rather than the end user is illogical.
*  Drivers are ultimately responsible for conservation.
*  The solution is to follow the Europeans...charge what the charge for fuel and invest that money into the highway and road infrastructure.

RCI buys Spanish Cruise Tour Operator

September 6, 2006

Analysis of:Royal Caribbean buys Spanish cruise operator | today.reuters.com

It is a good thing.

Europe is the fastest growing part of their network and the cruise
industry in general.

Caribbean has too much capacity.

Why Asia has a robust Travel market

August 23, 2006

Analysis of:Asia - Robust Travel Market In The First Half Of 2006 | www.hotelnewsresource.com

*Asia being driven by the China economic growth
*Japan holding its own with its own modest growth.
*Shanghai is the new New York of Asia (and will ultimately displace Tokyo as the financial capital of Asia.
Residual growth from India.

Cruise Lines in trouble?

August 23, 2006

Analysis of:Cruise lines in troubled waters | www.bradenton.com

*The problem exists only in the Caribbean.
*Alaska, Europe remain strong entities.
*Carnival Corp and RCI will continue to have strong margins albeit down YOY.

Flaws with the AA (Sabre) GDS Plan

July 31, 2006

Analysis of:AA Posts GDS Plan | www.solutionz.com

American's failure to reach an agreement with Sabre (and Amadeus) is short sighted indeed. They are trying to act like the play ground bullies and force Sabre to play by their rules and thus force the other GDSs to follow.  In this, I will explain why their thought process is flawed and why probably nothing will happen until after 9/1.

http://www.thebeat.travel/news.php?adate=jul_06%25cid=aaplan

Hertz 1Billion IPO

July 25, 2006

Analysis of:Hertz (HTZ) Files $1 Billion IPO | www.streetinsider.com

•Hertz IPO should do well because the fundamentals of the Travel industry are doing well (e.g.airlines, hotels,etc...)
•They have a done the best job of segmenting the market with the luxury (premium) brand rentals and their "Fun Collection" which will improve yield faster than their competitors.
•Their expansion into the Enterprise markets has grown considerably over the last 2 years and the Hertz brand has a stronger name recognition than Enterprise.

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